NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO DAL
Points 115.1 114.3
Total Points   229.3
Points From 2-Pointers 58.0 54.5
Points From 3-Pointers 38.3 43.2
Points From Free Throws 18.8 16.6
Shooting PHO DAL
Field Goals Made 41.7 41.6
Field Goals Attempted 86.6 90.5
Field Goal % 48.2% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 29.0 27.2
2 Pointers Attempted 53.7 50.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.0% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 14.4
3 Pointers Attempted 32.9 39.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.8% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 18.8 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 21.9
Free Throw % 80.7% 75.6%
Ball Control PHO DAL
Rebounds 51.6 46.8
Rebounds - Defensive 40.1 35.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 11.3
Turnovers 13.6 10.7
Blocked Shots 4.4 4.5
Steals 6.6 6.9
Fouls 17.6 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO DAL
Total Possessions 102.5
Effective Scoring Chances 100.4 103.2
% of Possessions with PHO DAL
2 Point Attempt 46.4% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 28.4% 34.2%
Player Fouled 16.9% 17.2%
Turnover 13.2% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO DAL
Shot Blocked 5.0% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 22.0%