NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO IND
Points 120.6 119.2
Total Points   239.9
Points From 2-Pointers 68.3 63.2
Points From 3-Pointers 30.0 39.9
Points From Free Throws 22.3 16.1
Shooting PHO IND
Field Goals Made 44.1 44.9
Field Goals Attempted 85.6 94.1
Field Goal % 51.5% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 34.1 31.6
2 Pointers Attempted 59.3 57.9
2 Point Shooting % 57.5% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made 10.0 13.3
3 Pointers Attempted 26.3 36.2
3 Point Shooting % 38.1% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 22.3 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 28.1 20.9
Free Throw % 79.6% 76.8%
Ball Control PHO IND
Rebounds 51.1 44.5
Rebounds - Defensive 39.3 32.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 11.9
Turnovers 14.1 10.7
Blocked Shots 5.7 5.3
Steals 5.9 7.9
Fouls 16.1 20.2

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO IND
Total Possessions 104.4
Effective Scoring Chances 102.1 105.7
% of Possessions with PHO IND
2 Point Attempt 50.1% 48.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 30.5%
Player Fouled 19.3% 15.4%
Turnover 13.5% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO IND
Shot Blocked 5.8% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 23.3%