NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO HOU
Points 116.9 111.8
Total Points   228.8
Points From 2-Pointers 59.5 54.8
Points From 3-Pointers 35.6 39.3
Points From Free Throws 21.7 17.8
Shooting PHO HOU
Field Goals Made 41.6 40.5
Field Goals Attempted 84.4 93.3
Field Goal % 49.3% 43.4%
2 Pointers Made 29.8 27.4
2 Pointers Attempted 51.7 55.6
2 Point Shooting % 57.5% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 11.9 13.1
3 Pointers Attempted 32.7 37.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 21.7 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 26.9 23.1
Free Throw % 80.7% 76.8%
Ball Control PHO HOU
Rebounds 52.5 47.9
Rebounds - Defensive 41.0 33.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 14.0
Turnovers 13.8 10.5
Blocked Shots 6.1 4.2
Steals 6.4 7.9
Fouls 16.9 19.4

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO HOU
Total Possessions 102.8
Effective Scoring Chances 100.5 106.3
% of Possessions with PHO HOU
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.2% 31.6%
Player Fouled 18.8% 16.5%
Turnover 13.4% 10.3%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO HOU
Shot Blocked 4.6% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 25.5%