NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO SA
Points 116.7 110.2
Total Points   226.9
Points From 2-Pointers 64.1 56.5
Points From 3-Pointers 35.5 38.6
Points From Free Throws 17.1 15.1
Shooting PHO SA
Field Goals Made 43.9 41.1
Field Goals Attempted 89.1 91.9
Field Goal % 49.2% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 32.0 28.2
2 Pointers Attempted 58.1 54.9
2 Point Shooting % 55.1% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.8 12.9
3 Pointers Attempted 31.0 37.0
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 17.1 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 19.5
Free Throw % 80.7% 77.6%
Ball Control PHO SA
Rebounds 51.4 48.2
Rebounds - Defensive 40.2 35.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 12.4
Turnovers 13.4 12.7
Blocked Shots 5.1 5.4
Steals 7.9 7.3
Fouls 15.3 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO SA
Total Possessions 103.5
Effective Scoring Chances 101.3 103.2
% of Possessions with PHO SA
2 Point Attempt 49.8% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 31.3%
Player Fouled 15.4% 14.8%
Turnover 12.9% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO SA
Shot Blocked 6.0% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 23.6%