NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO SA
Points 117.0 110.1
Total Points   227.1
Points From 2-Pointers 64.1 56.3
Points From 3-Pointers 35.8 38.9
Points From Free Throws 17.1 15.0
Shooting PHO SA
Field Goals Made 44.0 41.1
Field Goals Attempted 89.4 92.1
Field Goal % 49.2% 44.6%
2 Pointers Made 32.0 28.2
2 Pointers Attempted 58.2 55.0
2 Point Shooting % 55.0% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 11.9 13.0
3 Pointers Attempted 31.2 37.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 17.1 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 19.3
Free Throw % 80.7% 77.6%
Ball Control PHO SA
Rebounds 51.8 48.2
Rebounds - Defensive 40.5 35.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 12.3
Turnovers 13.3 12.7
Blocked Shots 5.2 5.5
Steals 7.9 7.2
Fouls 15.3 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO SA
Total Possessions 103.6
Effective Scoring Chances 101.6 103.3
% of Possessions with PHO SA
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 31.4%
Player Fouled 15.3% 14.8%
Turnover 12.8% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO SA
Shot Blocked 6.1% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 23.3%