NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO OKC
Points 113.2 117.1
Total Points   230.3
Points From 2-Pointers 53.8 59.4
Points From 3-Pointers 39.5 40.4
Points From Free Throws 19.9 17.2
Shooting PHO OKC
Field Goals Made 40.1 43.2
Field Goals Attempted 85.6 90.9
Field Goal % 46.8% 47.5%
2 Pointers Made 26.9 29.7
2 Pointers Attempted 51.2 55.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.2 13.5
3 Pointers Attempted 34.3 35.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 19.9 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 24.6 20.9
Free Throw % 80.7% 82.2%
Ball Control PHO OKC
Rebounds 51.3 45.4
Rebounds - Defensive 38.7 34.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 10.5
Turnovers 15.5 10.9
Blocked Shots 5.5 5.9
Steals 6.5 8.6
Fouls 16.6 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO OKC
Total Possessions 103.0
Effective Scoring Chances 100.1 102.5
% of Possessions with PHO OKC
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 30.4%
Player Fouled 16.9% 16.1%
Turnover 15.0% 10.6%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO OKC
Shot Blocked 6.6% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 21.3%