NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO POR
Points 118.8 105.2
Total Points   224.0
Points From 2-Pointers 64.3 54.4
Points From 3-Pointers 33.7 34.9
Points From Free Throws 20.8 15.8
Shooting PHO POR
Field Goals Made 43.4 38.8
Field Goals Attempted 82.9 92.5
Field Goal % 52.3% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 32.2 27.2
2 Pointers Attempted 52.1 58.6
2 Point Shooting % 61.7% 46.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.2 11.6
3 Pointers Attempted 30.8 33.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 20.8 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 25.7 20.0
Free Throw % 80.7% 79.4%
Ball Control PHO POR
Rebounds 50.9 46.3
Rebounds - Defensive 39.7 31.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 15.3
Turnovers 14.0 12.6
Blocked Shots 6.7 3.9
Steals 7.8 7.6
Fouls 15.1 19.0

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO POR
Total Possessions 101.3
Effective Scoring Chances 98.4 104.0
% of Possessions with PHO POR
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 49.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 28.4%
Player Fouled 18.7% 14.9%
Turnover 13.8% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO POR
Shot Blocked 4.3% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 27.8%