NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO GS
Points 113.4 107.8
Total Points   221.2
Points From 2-Pointers 58.7 51.2
Points From 3-Pointers 35.8 40.0
Points From Free Throws 18.9 16.6
Shooting PHO GS
Field Goals Made 41.3 38.9
Field Goals Attempted 87.6 85.7
Field Goal % 47.1% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 29.3 25.6
2 Pointers Attempted 55.2 48.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.2% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.9 13.3
3 Pointers Attempted 32.4 37.1
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 18.9 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 21.2
Free Throw % 84.7% 78.6%
Ball Control PHO GS
Rebounds 50.5 46.4
Rebounds - Defensive 40.0 37.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 9.0
Turnovers 12.2 13.5
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.3
Steals 7.2 6.7
Fouls 17.7 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Golden State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO GS
Total Possessions 102.6
Effective Scoring Chances 100.9 98.1
% of Possessions with PHO GS
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 43.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 32.8%
Player Fouled 17.6% 17.2%
Turnover 11.9% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO GS
Shot Blocked 4.0% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 21.9% 18.4%