NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO GS
Points 117.4 116.3
Total Points   233.7
Points From 2-Pointers 59.9 55.1
Points From 3-Pointers 38.5 45.8
Points From Free Throws 19.0 15.4
Shooting PHO GS
Field Goals Made 42.8 42.8
Field Goals Attempted 87.6 94.8
Field Goal % 48.8% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 29.9 27.5
2 Pointers Attempted 53.3 53.4
2 Point Shooting % 56.2% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 15.3
3 Pointers Attempted 34.3 41.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 19.0 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.9 20.2
Free Throw % 79.6% 76.4%
Ball Control PHO GS
Rebounds 51.2 50.1
Rebounds - Defensive 39.3 35.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 14.8
Turnovers 13.0 11.3
Blocked Shots 5.4 4.1
Steals 6.4 6.9
Fouls 15.4 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Golden State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO GS
Total Possessions 103.0
Effective Scoring Chances 101.9 106.5
% of Possessions with PHO GS
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 34.5%
Player Fouled 17.6% 14.9%
Turnover 12.6% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO GS
Shot Blocked 4.4% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 27.3%