NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC LAL
Points 122.0 114.7
Total Points   236.7
Points From 2-Pointers 63.6 57.1
Points From 3-Pointers 43.3 37.6
Points From Free Throws 15.1 20.1
Shooting OKC LAL
Field Goals Made 46.2 41.1
Field Goals Attempted 93.3 85.9
Field Goal % 49.6% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 31.8 28.5
2 Pointers Attempted 57.1 53.2
2 Point Shooting % 55.7% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 14.4 12.5
3 Pointers Attempted 36.2 32.7
3 Point Shooting % 39.9% 38.3%
Free Throws Made 15.1 20.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 25.9
Free Throw % 82.2% 77.6%
Ball Control OKC LAL
Rebounds 47.6 48.3
Rebounds - Defensive 37.5 38.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 10.1
Turnovers 11.5 14.4
Blocked Shots 6.3 4.9
Steals 8.3 6.4
Fouls 17.9 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC LAL
Total Possessions 104.9
Effective Scoring Chances 103.6 100.5
% of Possessions with OKC LAL
2 Point Attempt 48.8% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.9% 27.8%
Player Fouled 13.7% 17.1%
Turnover 10.9% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC LAL
Shot Blocked 5.8% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.0% 21.2%