NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC LAL
Points 121.4 113.6
Total Points   234.9
Points From 2-Pointers 63.6 56.8
Points From 3-Pointers 42.9 37.3
Points From Free Throws 14.9 19.5
Shooting OKC LAL
Field Goals Made 46.1 40.8
Field Goals Attempted 93.2 85.6
Field Goal % 49.5% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made 31.8 28.4
2 Pointers Attempted 57.1 52.9
2 Point Shooting % 55.7% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 14.3 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 36.1 32.7
3 Point Shooting % 39.7% 38.0%
Free Throws Made 14.9 19.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 25.1
Free Throw % 82.2% 77.8%
Ball Control OKC LAL
Rebounds 47.5 48.1
Rebounds - Defensive 37.4 38.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 9.9
Turnovers 11.2 14.5
Blocked Shots 6.2 4.8
Steals 8.2 6.2
Fouls 17.8 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC LAL
Total Possessions 104.4
Effective Scoring Chances 103.3 99.8
% of Possessions with OKC LAL
2 Point Attempt 49.0% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 31.0% 28.0%
Player Fouled 13.9% 17.1%
Turnover 10.8% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC LAL
Shot Blocked 5.8% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.9% 21.0%