NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC ORL
Points 114.0 107.3
Total Points   221.2
Points From 2-Pointers 59.9 52.2
Points From 3-Pointers 35.3 35.1
Points From Free Throws 18.7 20.0
Shooting OKC ORL
Field Goals Made 41.7 37.8
Field Goals Attempted 84.1 84.1
Field Goal % 49.6% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 30.0 26.1
2 Pointers Attempted 53.1 51.4
2 Point Shooting % 56.5% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 11.8 11.7
3 Pointers Attempted 31.0 32.7
3 Point Shooting % 38.0% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 18.7 20.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 26.3
Free Throw % 82.2% 75.9%
Ball Control OKC ORL
Rebounds 44.7 48.8
Rebounds - Defensive 36.2 35.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 13.2
Turnovers 13.3 15.2
Blocked Shots 5.8 4.9
Steals 8.3 7.4
Fouls 18.7 18.5

Playing Style Advantage: Okla City

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC ORL
Total Possessions 101.8
Effective Scoring Chances 97.0 99.8
% of Possessions with OKC ORL
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.6% 27.9%
Player Fouled 18.2% 18.3%
Turnover 13.0% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC ORL
Shot Blocked 5.9% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 19.2% 26.7%