NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC DEN
Points 115.5 113.3
Total Points   228.8
Points From 2-Pointers 62.3 59.4
Points From 3-Pointers 34.2 37.1
Points From Free Throws 18.9 16.8
Shooting OKC DEN
Field Goals Made 42.6 42.1
Field Goals Attempted 88.7 89.5
Field Goal % 48.0% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 31.2 29.7
2 Pointers Attempted 58.1 56.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.4 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 30.7 33.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 18.9 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 23.0 21.9
Free Throw % 82.2% 76.4%
Ball Control OKC DEN
Rebounds 46.6 50.9
Rebounds - Defensive 36.2 37.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 13.5
Turnovers 10.5 12.9
Blocked Shots 6.0 5.5
Steals 7.1 6.1
Fouls 16.1 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC DEN
Total Possessions 101.6
Effective Scoring Chances 101.5 102.2
% of Possessions with OKC DEN
2 Point Attempt 50.8% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 28.1%
Player Fouled 16.6% 15.9%
Turnover 10.3% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC DEN
Shot Blocked 6.3% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.7% 27.1%