NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC HOU
Points 120.6 113.0
Total Points   233.5
Points From 2-Pointers 61.6 52.7
Points From 3-Pointers 37.8 40.0
Points From Free Throws 21.1 20.2
Shooting OKC HOU
Field Goals Made 43.4 39.7
Field Goals Attempted 88.1 91.1
Field Goal % 49.3% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 30.8 26.4
2 Pointers Attempted 53.6 53.6
2 Point Shooting % 57.5% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.6 13.3
3 Pointers Attempted 34.5 37.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 21.1 20.2
Free Throws Attempted 25.5 26.2
Free Throw % 82.8% 77.2%
Ball Control OKC HOU
Rebounds 49.1 51.6
Rebounds - Defensive 39.1 36.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 14.9
Turnovers 11.7 13.2
Blocked Shots 7.0 4.6
Steals 7.1 6.7
Fouls 18.0 19.6

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC HOU
Total Possessions 104.4
Effective Scoring Chances 102.7 106.1
% of Possessions with OKC HOU
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 30.7%
Player Fouled 18.8% 17.3%
Turnover 11.2% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC HOU
Shot Blocked 5.2% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 21.4% 27.6%