NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC HOU
Points 121.0 111.7
Total Points   232.7
Points From 2-Pointers 62.6 51.6
Points From 3-Pointers 37.5 40.5
Points From Free Throws 20.9 19.6
Shooting OKC HOU
Field Goals Made 43.8 39.3
Field Goals Attempted 87.4 91.4
Field Goal % 50.1% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 31.3 25.8
2 Pointers Attempted 53.6 52.8
2 Point Shooting % 58.4% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made 12.5 13.5
3 Pointers Attempted 33.9 38.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 20.9 19.6
Free Throws Attempted 25.4 25.6
Free Throw % 82.2% 76.8%
Ball Control OKC HOU
Rebounds 49.7 50.8
Rebounds - Defensive 39.7 35.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 14.9
Turnovers 11.8 12.9
Blocked Shots 7.1 4.6
Steals 7.3 6.8
Fouls 17.5 19.2

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC HOU
Total Possessions 104.0
Effective Scoring Chances 102.1 106.0
% of Possessions with OKC HOU
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.3% 31.7%
Player Fouled 18.5% 16.8%
Turnover 11.4% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC HOU
Shot Blocked 5.1% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.7% 27.3%