NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC POR
Points 123.8 107.0
Total Points   230.8
Points From 2-Pointers 67.5 51.5
Points From 3-Pointers 36.3 37.1
Points From Free Throws 19.9 18.4
Shooting OKC POR
Field Goals Made 45.9 38.1
Field Goals Attempted 86.9 89.3
Field Goal % 52.8% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 33.8 25.7
2 Pointers Attempted 54.7 55.0
2 Point Shooting % 61.7% 46.8%
3 Pointers Made 12.1 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 32.2 34.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 19.9 18.4
Free Throws Attempted 24.0 23.1
Free Throw % 82.8% 79.7%
Ball Control OKC POR
Rebounds 47.5 48.3
Rebounds - Defensive 37.4 32.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 15.4
Turnovers 12.3 15.7
Blocked Shots 7.9 4.4
Steals 8.7 6.6
Fouls 16.3 19.1

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC POR
Total Possessions 103.1
Effective Scoring Chances 100.9 102.8
% of Possessions with OKC POR
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 28.2%
Player Fouled 18.5% 15.8%
Turnover 11.9% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC POR
Shot Blocked 5.0% 9.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 29.2%