NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN ORL
Points 106.6 102.1
Total Points   208.6
Points From 2-Pointers 54.3 53.1
Points From 3-Pointers 33.7 29.6
Points From Free Throws 18.5 19.3
Shooting MIN ORL
Field Goals Made 38.4 36.4
Field Goals Attempted 80.5 82.4
Field Goal % 47.7% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 27.1 26.5
2 Pointers Attempted 50.6 53.8
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 11.2 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 29.9 28.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 18.5 19.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.9 25.9
Free Throw % 77.4% 74.6%
Ball Control MIN ORL
Rebounds 46.3 47.8
Rebounds - Defensive 37.0 35.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 12.2
Turnovers 14.4 14.1
Blocked Shots 5.2 4.6
Steals 7.6 7.7
Fouls 19.0 19.5

Playing Style Advantage: Orlando

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN ORL
Total Possessions 99.6
Effective Scoring Chances 94.5 97.7
% of Possessions with MIN ORL
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 25.1%
Player Fouled 19.6% 19.1%
Turnover 14.4% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN ORL
Shot Blocked 5.7% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 24.8%