NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN DAL
Points 112.6 109.2
Total Points   221.8
Points From 2-Pointers 55.4 52.5
Points From 3-Pointers 38.8 38.8
Points From Free Throws 18.3 17.9
Shooting MIN DAL
Field Goals Made 40.7 39.2
Field Goals Attempted 85.8 86.6
Field Goal % 47.4% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 27.7 26.2
2 Pointers Attempted 52.6 51.0
2 Point Shooting % 52.6% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 12.9 12.9
3 Pointers Attempted 33.1 35.6
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 18.3 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 23.7
Free Throw % 77.2% 75.6%
Ball Control MIN DAL
Rebounds 50.5 47.7
Rebounds - Defensive 39.6 37.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 10.7
Turnovers 12.9 12.1
Blocked Shots 4.7 4.3
Steals 7.2 6.3
Fouls 18.7 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN DAL
Total Possessions 101.8
Effective Scoring Chances 99.8 100.4
% of Possessions with MIN DAL
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.0% 31.2%
Player Fouled 17.8% 18.4%
Turnover 12.6% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN DAL
Shot Blocked 5.0% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 21.3%