NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN IND
Points 117.2 112.3
Total Points   229.5
Points From 2-Pointers 64.6 61.0
Points From 3-Pointers 31.5 34.0
Points From Free Throws 21.2 17.2
Shooting MIN IND
Field Goals Made 42.8 41.8
Field Goals Attempted 85.4 89.6
Field Goal % 50.1% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 32.3 30.5
2 Pointers Attempted 58.4 58.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 52.3%
3 Pointers Made 10.5 11.3
3 Pointers Attempted 27.0 31.4
3 Point Shooting % 38.8% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 21.2 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 27.4 22.4
Free Throw % 77.4% 76.8%
Ball Control MIN IND
Rebounds 50.1 45.7
Rebounds - Defensive 38.8 34.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 11.3
Turnovers 13.2 12.3
Blocked Shots 6.0 5.3
Steals 6.4 7.1
Fouls 17.1 20.5

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN IND
Total Possessions 103.2
Effective Scoring Chances 101.3 102.2
% of Possessions with MIN IND
2 Point Attempt 50.1% 49.9%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 26.8%
Player Fouled 19.9% 16.6%
Turnover 12.8% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN IND
Shot Blocked 6.1% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 22.5%