NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN TOR
Points 120.0 103.9
Total Points   223.9
Points From 2-Pointers 62.3 55.0
Points From 3-Pointers 40.6 31.1
Points From Free Throws 17.2 17.8
Shooting MIN TOR
Field Goals Made 44.7 37.9
Field Goals Attempted 86.9 87.5
Field Goal % 51.4% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made 31.1 27.5
2 Pointers Attempted 52.7 56.9
2 Point Shooting % 59.1% 48.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.5 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 34.1 30.5
3 Point Shooting % 39.6% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 17.2 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 23.2
Free Throw % 77.5% 76.6%
Ball Control MIN TOR
Rebounds 51.5 45.0
Rebounds - Defensive 39.9 33.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 11.8
Turnovers 13.4 13.4
Blocked Shots 7.0 3.9
Steals 7.1 7.3
Fouls 16.7 18.2

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN TOR
Total Possessions 102.0
Effective Scoring Chances 100.2 100.4
% of Possessions with MIN TOR
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 48.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 26.2%
Player Fouled 17.9% 16.4%
Turnover 13.1% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN TOR
Shot Blocked 4.5% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 22.8%