NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN GS
Points 114.5 109.1
Total Points   223.6
Points From 2-Pointers 56.2 53.7
Points From 3-Pointers 40.2 38.9
Points From Free Throws 18.1 16.5
Shooting MIN GS
Field Goals Made 41.5 39.8
Field Goals Attempted 87.1 90.0
Field Goal % 47.6% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 28.1 26.8
2 Pointers Attempted 52.0 54.3
2 Point Shooting % 54.0% 49.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.4 13.0
3 Pointers Attempted 35.1 35.7
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 18.1 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 21.6
Free Throw % 77.4% 76.4%
Ball Control MIN GS
Rebounds 49.9 50.8
Rebounds - Defensive 38.6 37.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 13.8
Turnovers 12.2 13.0
Blocked Shots 5.7 4.1
Steals 6.9 6.1
Fouls 16.4 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: Golden State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN GS
Total Possessions 101.8
Effective Scoring Chances 100.9 102.7
% of Possessions with MIN GS
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 46.1%
3 Point Attempt 30.6% 30.3%
Player Fouled 18.1% 16.1%
Turnover 12.0% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN GS
Shot Blocked 4.7% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.3% 26.4%