NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN GS
Points 113.4 109.2
Total Points   222.6
Points From 2-Pointers 54.8 52.9
Points From 3-Pointers 40.5 39.9
Points From Free Throws 18.1 16.4
Shooting MIN GS
Field Goals Made 40.9 39.7
Field Goals Attempted 86.4 89.1
Field Goal % 47.3% 44.6%
2 Pointers Made 27.4 26.5
2 Pointers Attempted 51.4 53.8
2 Point Shooting % 53.3% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 13.5 13.3
3 Pointers Attempted 35.0 35.3
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 18.1 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 21.1
Free Throw % 77.2% 77.7%
Ball Control MIN GS
Rebounds 49.0 50.6
Rebounds - Defensive 37.8 37.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 13.5
Turnovers 12.2 13.5
Blocked Shots 5.7 4.1
Steals 7.3 6.4
Fouls 16.0 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Golden State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN GS
Total Possessions 101.4
Effective Scoring Chances 100.3 101.4
% of Possessions with MIN GS
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 30.2%
Player Fouled 18.4% 15.8%
Turnover 12.1% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN GS
Shot Blocked 4.7% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 26.3%