NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring POR MIA
Points 103.2 112.9
Total Points   216.1
Points From 2-Pointers 54.1 58.7
Points From 3-Pointers 34.4 34.1
Points From Free Throws 14.7 20.1
Shooting POR MIA
Field Goals Made 38.5 40.7
Field Goals Attempted 86.8 83.3
Field Goal % 44.4% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 27.1 29.3
2 Pointers Attempted 52.2 51.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.8% 57.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 11.4
3 Pointers Attempted 34.5 32.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 14.7 20.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 24.6
Free Throw % 79.4% 82.0%
Ball Control POR MIA
Rebounds 47.1 47.7
Rebounds - Defensive 34.5 37.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 10.3
Turnovers 13.8 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.9 4.0
Steals 6.0 8.1
Fouls 18.5 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats POR MIA
Total Possessions 99.4
Effective Scoring Chances 98.2 97.8
% of Possessions with POR MIA
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 29.1%
Player Fouled 14.9% 18.6%
Turnover 13.9% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken POR MIA
Shot Blocked 4.8% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 23.0%