NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring POR HOU
Points 109.1 117.9
Total Points   226.9
Points From 2-Pointers 57.3 62.5
Points From 3-Pointers 32.5 34.6
Points From Free Throws 19.3 20.7
Shooting POR HOU
Field Goals Made 39.5 42.8
Field Goals Attempted 88.9 88.1
Field Goal % 44.4% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 28.6 31.3
2 Pointers Attempted 56.0 53.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 58.3%
3 Pointers Made 10.8 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 32.8 34.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 19.3 20.7
Free Throws Attempted 24.3 27.0
Free Throw % 79.4% 76.8%
Ball Control POR HOU
Rebounds 50.0 50.2
Rebounds - Defensive 35.4 37.0
Rebounds - Offensive 14.7 13.2
Turnovers 13.8 11.7
Blocked Shots 4.8 5.6
Steals 6.5 8.2
Fouls 19.2 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats POR HOU
Total Possessions 102.5
Effective Scoring Chances 103.4 104.0
% of Possessions with POR HOU
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 29.3%
Player Fouled 17.1% 18.7%
Turnover 13.4% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken POR HOU
Shot Blocked 6.5% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 27.2%