NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GS LAL
Points 119.7 117.7
Total Points   237.4
Points From 2-Pointers 58.9 61.2
Points From 3-Pointers 47.7 37.6
Points From Free Throws 13.1 18.9
Shooting GS LAL
Field Goals Made 45.4 43.1
Field Goals Attempted 95.4 87.6
Field Goal % 47.5% 49.2%
2 Pointers Made 29.5 30.6
2 Pointers Attempted 54.9 54.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.6% 56.1%
3 Pointers Made 15.9 12.5
3 Pointers Attempted 40.5 33.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.2% 38.0%
Free Throws Made 13.1 18.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 24.3
Free Throw % 77.7% 77.6%
Ball Control GS LAL
Rebounds 51.5 47.3
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 37.8
Rebounds - Offensive 13.8 9.5
Turnovers 12.5 12.0
Blocked Shots 4.6 4.8
Steals 6.8 6.6
Fouls 18.3 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Golden State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GS LAL
Total Possessions 104.1
Effective Scoring Chances 105.4 101.6
% of Possessions with GS LAL
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 33.8% 28.6%
Player Fouled 12.5% 17.5%
Turnover 12.0% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken GS LAL
Shot Blocked 5.6% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 20.1%