NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GS LAL
Points 119.5 117.5
Total Points   237.0
Points From 2-Pointers 58.9 61.0
Points From 3-Pointers 47.6 37.8
Points From Free Throws 13.0 18.6
Shooting GS LAL
Field Goals Made 45.3 43.1
Field Goals Attempted 95.5 87.3
Field Goal % 47.5% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 29.4 30.5
2 Pointers Attempted 54.8 54.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.8% 56.3%
3 Pointers Made 15.9 12.6
3 Pointers Attempted 40.7 33.2
3 Point Shooting % 39.0% 38.0%
Free Throws Made 13.0 18.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 24.0
Free Throw % 77.7% 77.8%
Ball Control GS LAL
Rebounds 51.4 47.2
Rebounds - Defensive 37.6 37.9
Rebounds - Offensive 13.8 9.3
Turnovers 12.3 12.1
Blocked Shots 4.5 4.8
Steals 6.8 6.5
Fouls 18.3 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Golden State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GS LAL
Total Possessions 103.9
Effective Scoring Chances 105.4 101.1
% of Possessions with GS LAL
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 34.0% 28.8%
Player Fouled 12.6% 17.6%
Turnover 11.8% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken GS LAL
Shot Blocked 5.6% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 19.7%