NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GS IND
Points 121.4 122.2
Total Points   243.6
Points From 2-Pointers 67.1 65.6
Points From 3-Pointers 35.3 40.0
Points From Free Throws 19.0 16.6
Shooting GS IND
Field Goals Made 45.3 46.1
Field Goals Attempted 91.6 93.2
Field Goal % 49.5% 49.5%
2 Pointers Made 33.6 32.8
2 Pointers Attempted 60.0 57.0
2 Point Shooting % 55.9% 57.5%
3 Pointers Made 11.8 13.3
3 Pointers Attempted 31.6 36.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.3% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 19.0 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 24.5 21.3
Free Throw % 77.7% 78.0%
Ball Control GS IND
Rebounds 51.9 46.2
Rebounds - Defensive 37.6 34.5
Rebounds - Offensive 14.3 11.7
Turnovers 13.0 10.9
Blocked Shots 4.8 5.7
Steals 5.5 6.9
Fouls 17.1 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GS IND
Total Possessions 104.6
Effective Scoring Chances 105.9 105.4
% of Possessions with GS IND
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 30.7%
Player Fouled 17.3% 16.4%
Turnover 12.4% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken GS IND
Shot Blocked 6.3% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 29.3% 23.7%