NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GS TOR
Points 115.5 108.5
Total Points   224.0
Points From 2-Pointers 51.7 57.5
Points From 3-Pointers 43.7 34.0
Points From Free Throws 20.1 16.9
Shooting GS TOR
Field Goals Made 40.4 40.1
Field Goals Attempted 88.9 88.2
Field Goal % 45.5% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 25.8 28.8
2 Pointers Attempted 46.9 55.9
2 Point Shooting % 55.1% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 14.6 11.3
3 Pointers Attempted 41.9 32.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 20.1 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 26.4 22.6
Free Throw % 75.9% 75.1%
Ball Control GS TOR
Rebounds 52.4 50.0
Rebounds - Defensive 37.3 36.6
Rebounds - Offensive 15.1 13.4
Turnovers 13.3 14.9
Blocked Shots 6.0 4.8
Steals 9.1 6.6
Fouls 17.6 18.7

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GS TOR
Total Possessions 103.1
Effective Scoring Chances 104.9 101.6
% of Possessions with GS TOR
2 Point Attempt 39.1% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 34.9% 27.2%
Player Fouled 18.2% 17.1%
Turnover 12.9% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken GS TOR
Shot Blocked 5.5% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 26.4%