NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GS PHO
Points 116.3 117.4
Total Points   233.7
Points From 2-Pointers 55.1 59.9
Points From 3-Pointers 45.8 38.5
Points From Free Throws 15.4 19.0
Shooting GS PHO
Field Goals Made 42.8 42.8
Field Goals Attempted 94.8 87.6
Field Goal % 45.2% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 27.5 29.9
2 Pointers Attempted 53.4 53.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 56.2%
3 Pointers Made 15.3 12.8
3 Pointers Attempted 41.4 34.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 15.4 19.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 23.9
Free Throw % 76.4% 79.6%
Ball Control GS PHO
Rebounds 50.1 51.2
Rebounds - Defensive 35.4 39.3
Rebounds - Offensive 14.8 11.9
Turnovers 11.3 13.0
Blocked Shots 4.1 5.4
Steals 6.9 6.4
Fouls 18.1 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Golden State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GS PHO
Total Possessions 103.0
Effective Scoring Chances 106.5 101.9
% of Possessions with GS PHO
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 34.5% 29.4%
Player Fouled 14.9% 17.6%
Turnover 10.9% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken GS PHO
Shot Blocked 6.3% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 25.2%