NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WAS MIA
Points 110.0 116.2
Total Points   226.2
Points From 2-Pointers 57.7 63.1
Points From 3-Pointers 38.3 33.3
Points From Free Throws 14.0 19.9
Shooting WAS MIA
Field Goals Made 41.6 42.6
Field Goals Attempted 87.8 88.2
Field Goal % 47.4% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 28.9 31.5
2 Pointers Attempted 50.8 56.8
2 Point Shooting % 56.8% 55.5%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 11.1
3 Pointers Attempted 37.1 31.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 14.0 19.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 24.6
Free Throw % 76.3% 80.8%
Ball Control WAS MIA
Rebounds 45.2 50.9
Rebounds - Defensive 36.1 39.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 11.7
Turnovers 12.9 11.5
Blocked Shots 4.7 3.9
Steals 5.9 7.1
Fouls 18.0 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Washington

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WAS MIA
Total Possessions 102.3
Effective Scoring Chances 98.5 102.5
% of Possessions with WAS MIA
2 Point Attempt 44.9% 49.0%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 27.0%
Player Fouled 14.7% 17.6%
Turnover 12.6% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken WAS MIA
Shot Blocked 4.5% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 18.9% 24.5%