BetIQ Daily: Arizona vs. Arizona State and Duke vs. Virginia Picks

Monday picks in BetIQ include an over/under for Virginia-Duke and also pick a side in the Arizona-Arizona State rivalry.

February 7, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Paolo Banchero and Duke take on Virginia on Monday (Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire)

BetIQ has a case of the Mondays, but it isn’t anything some more basketball and Super Bowl week won’t cure.

Now, let’s get to some picks that will hit harder than the players in the Pro Bowl.

1) Arizona -13

  • NCAAB Spread Pick
  • at Arizona State, Monday at 9:00 p.m. ET on FS1
  • A playable model pick, according to our Ensemble Forecast and Decision Tree models.
  • Arizona has a significant size advantage in this matchup.
  • Wildcats have been even better with a healthy Azuolas Tubelis at power forward, as Tubelis was still limited in the earlier loss to UCLA.
  • Arizona State is coming off 3-OT upset win over UCLA Saturday night to end a four-game losing streak.

2) Virginia/Duke Under 128.5

  • NCAAB Over/Under Pick
  • Monday at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Our top over/under model pick for Monday.
  • One week ago, a similar matchup based on opponent tempo saw Duke hold Notre Dame to 14 first-half points in game with 100 total points.

Bob Costas Used to Book for Marks

Before he got into broadcasting, Bob Costas had a brief stint as a bookie in high school. On the Straight Fire Podcast with Jason McIntyre (as detailed in the New York Post), Costas told the story of how he made some money before his dad shut down the operation:

The way I was successful was I knew who rooted for the Giants, Jets, Mets, and Yankees. And so, if their team was favored, I’d create a line that was way higher than it should’ve been, but they bet with their hearts — so they’d be giving more points than they should have been given …

And a lot of times on the same game, I would hit a middle, and both sides would have to pay me.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

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