Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 222 107-114-1 48.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 308 162-140-6 53.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1252 608-629-15 49.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 632 301-324-7 48.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 605 310-285-10 52.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 286 130-152-4 46.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 651 325-312-14 51.0%
Total 3956 1943-1956-57 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 409 195-208-6 48.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 557 271-272-14 49.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2858 1428-1371-59 51.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1518 777-721-20 51.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2374 1214-1126-34 51.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 449 201-239-9 45.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 495 222-266-7 45.5%
Total 8660 4308-4203-149 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 147 73-68-6 51.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 249 125-120-4 51.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1274 626-628-20 49.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 709 363-333-13 52.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1249 589-635-25 48.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 216 111-97-8 53.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 149 71-75-3 48.6%
Total 3993 1958-1956-79 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 79 32-46-1 41.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 170 87-82-1 51.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 743 344-388-11 47.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 453 222-224-7 49.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 812 397-401-14 49.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 135 72-57-6 55.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 127 62-63-2 49.6%
Total 2519 1216-1261-42 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 6 4-2-0 66.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 31 11-19-1 36.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 151 75-73-3 50.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 82 42-39-1 51.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 168 75-91-2 45.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 38 17-21-0 44.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 32 16-16-0 50.0%
Total 508 240-261-7 47.9%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.