Player Prop Bets for NFL Week 7

Our favorite Week 7 player props feature Jameis Winston and Geno Smith in the same matchup, along with Jared Goff's return to L.A.

October 23, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

It’s time for our player prop picks for Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season.

Throughout the season, we will identify our favorite player props. Each week, we will use roughly $200 on various prop bets. We’ll track those picks and hopefully learn a few things along the way.

The general plan is to use the knowledge that went into the season-long projections for fantasy football as well as player injuries, depth charts, and usage. We might incorporate research into various stat categories and distribution of outcomes as well. But this is for fun, so we’ll sprinkle in some entertainment plays, too.

Each week, we’ll summarize the previous week and season-to-date, good or bad, and see how we do.

Last Week/Overall Summary

We went 5-4 overall last week, but we broke even on money thanks to the juice. For the season, our prop picks are 26-22.

Last week featured some bad luck and bad beats. Otherwise, it would have been even better.

The two top picks were quarterbacks in the same London game. Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence easily crushed their passing-yard totals by each throwing for more than 300 yards.

Baker Mayfield had 234 passing yards, needing only four more yards to go over, with 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter. He was facing 3rd-and-4 in a game where the Browns were trailing and likely to pass moving forward. However, he missed on third and fourth down, aggravated his shoulder injury, and is now out for an undetermined amount of time.

Talk about adding player prop insult to injury.

Tyreek Hill also came up just short of his receiving yard line despite hauling in nine catches. He might have gone over had he hauled in a 10th catch instead of a deflection for an interception.

Week 7 Player Props

Here are the picks we like. We checked a variety of books, and the props we’re targeting came from a combination of BetMGM and DraftKings.

PLAYER	TEAM	CATEGORY	O/U	LINE	ODDS	BET	SPORTSBOOK
Jameis Winston	NO	Passing Yards	Over	207.5	-105	21	BetMGM
Geno Smith	SEA	Passing Yards	Over	206.5	-115	23	BetMGM
Jared Goff	LAR	Passing Yards	Under	269.5	-115	23	BetMGM
Aaron Rodgers	GB	Passing Yards	Over	252.5	-115	23	BetMGM
Tom Brady	TB	Passing Yards	Under	303.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Kyler Murray	ARI	Passing Yards	Over	266.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Ryan Tannehill	TEN	Passing Yards	Over	248.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes	KC	Passing Yards	Under	326.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Carson Wentz	IND	Passing Yards	Over	221.5	-115	23	BetMGM

We focused exclusively on passing yards this week, as this continues to be the area where our projections have performed the best. We’ve worked on a passing yards model based on regression analysis of team scoring and spreads and accompanying team passing-yard numbers.

In the Seattle vs. New Orleans game, both Jameis Winston and Geno Smith have lines below 210 passing yards. Those numbers are likely based on Winston’s low volume passing so far and Smith going against the Saints defense, but they’re too low based on our analysis.

Jared Goff is a big underdog, so his total of 269.5 passing yards is too high given the Lions’ expected points.

Aaron Rodgers has averaged only 239 passing yards per game, which explains his low total of 252.5 in Week 7. But Washington has a vulnerable pass defense, and the combined points expected in this matchup suggest a higher-volume game.

The rest of the quarterback props are also based on games where our projected passing yards based on the spread/points expected are more than 10 yards different from the offered line.