NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS MIA
Points 113.0 101.4
Total Points   214.3
Points From 2-Pointers 49.3 50.5
Points From 3-Pointers 49.2 37.2
Points From Free Throws 14.4 13.6
Shooting BOS MIA
Field Goals Made 41.1 37.7
Field Goals Attempted 86.3 89.0
Field Goal % 47.6% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 24.7 25.3
2 Pointers Attempted 41.9 53.4
2 Point Shooting % 58.8% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 16.4 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 44.4 35.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 14.4 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 16.6
Free Throw % 79.3% 81.9%
Ball Control BOS MIA
Rebounds 52.1 47.4
Rebounds - Defensive 41.5 36.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 10.7
Turnovers 10.9 10.4
Blocked Shots 5.7 2.3
Steals 5.6 5.4
Fouls 14.5 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS MIA
Total Possessions 97.8
Effective Scoring Chances 97.5 98.1
% of Possessions with BOS MIA
2 Point Attempt 38.4% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 40.6% 32.2%
Player Fouled 14.9% 14.9%
Turnover 11.1% 10.7%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS MIA
Shot Blocked 2.6% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 20.5%