NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OKC NO
Points 115.1 108.9
Total Points   224.0
Points From 2-Pointers 57.3 53.7
Points From 3-Pointers 41.1 37.1
Points From Free Throws 16.8 18.1
Shooting OKC NO
Field Goals Made 42.3 39.2
Field Goals Attempted 86.5 86.9
Field Goal % 48.9% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 28.6 26.8
2 Pointers Attempted 49.5 53.3
2 Point Shooting % 57.8% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.7 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 37.0 33.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 16.8 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 23.2
Free Throw % 81.8% 77.9%
Ball Control OKC NO
Rebounds 46.0 49.6
Rebounds - Defensive 36.8 36.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 13.0
Turnovers 12.1 13.8
Blocked Shots 6.5 4.6
Steals 6.9 7.4
Fouls 15.9 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Okla City

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OKC NO
Total Possessions 101.1
Effective Scoring Chances 98.2 100.3
% of Possessions with OKC NO
2 Point Attempt 44.2% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 33.0% 28.8%
Player Fouled 17.2% 15.8%
Turnover 11.9% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken OKC NO
Shot Blocked 5.4% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 20.0% 26.1%