Now that the NCAAB season has ended, we are re-evaluating the Staff Picks feature and will provide an update to subscribers when ready. If you have feedback or suggestions, please let us know here.
How it wins:Dayton wins the game against Nevada in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
Staff notes:
This is a pick based on our lineup and roster trend analysis and matchup analysis.
Our adjustments after lineup reviews have Dayton as the slight favorite here by a point, while the betting line is the other way, with Nevada typically favored by -1 to -1.5 on the spread, and Dayton a small +number on the moneyline. We've posted the best number at US books, the second-best being +102 at DK, so shop around.
We also like some of the matchup factors, including this one: Nevada is 3rd in the nation at FTA to FGA rate, at 46%, so they rely on getting to the foul line for a bigger portion of their offense. Dayton is 3rd in the nation on defense, only allowing 22% FTA to FGA rate.
Add in that in these NCAA Tournament games, they might be officiated a little looser than some conferences are used to, and we like the team that doesn't foul, and forces long possessions defensively, against a team reliant on getting to the line. The most similar game last year was the 7/10 game between Texas A&M (45% FTA/FGA) against Penn State (26% FTA/FGA allowed), a game that Penn State won comfortably by 17 as a dog.
Pick published: Mar 21 3:51pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 754
Published Mar 8 12:48pm ET
NCAABMoneyline
Belmont To Win
-110
Lost: 62-67
Belmont vs. Northern Iowa
Fri Mar 8 • 3:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:Belmont wins the game on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is not a model pick, but is a play based on our lineup analysis.
Belmont has been playing at a substantially higher level over the last 9 games (they were also a successful staff pick last Sunday, and are 8-1 ATS after yesterday's game, covering over half by double digits).
That change corresponds with point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie returning from a month-long injury to start conference play, and joining a new starting lineup rotation, that has only been in use for these four games.
Belmont's offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have been stellar during this run, and we are willing to bet on the chemistry and improvement of this current lineup not being reflected fully in the line. Belmont is averaging a Game Score of +11.5 (at-large tournament quality) in the last 9 games versus -1.1 for the previous 23 with different lineups and with Gillespie's injury.
We list this as a moneyline play here, but it is playable at the more common -1 (-110) spread available at other books.
Pick published: Mar 8 12:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 871
Published Mar 7 12:06pm ET
NCAABMoneyline
Texas State To Win
+148
Won: 75-59
Texas State vs. Southern Miss
Thu Mar 7 • 6:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Texas State wins the game against Southern Miss on Thursday, March 7.
Staff notes:
Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
At the time of posting, our models currently have this as a strong play up to +139.
Pick published: Mar 7 12:06pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 779
Published Feb 15 6:51pm ET
NCAABMoneyline
San Diego St. To Win
-220
Won: 81-70
New Mexico at San Diego St.
Fri Feb 16 • 10:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:San Diego State wins the game against New Mexico on Friday, February 15.
Staff notes:
Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
At the time of posting, our models currently have this as a strong play up to -235.
Pick published: Feb 15 6:51pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 896
Published Feb 13 8:40pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Kings To Win
+160
Lost: 125-130
Kings at Suns
Tue Feb 13 • 10:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Kings beat the Suns on Tuesday, February 13.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Feb 13 8:40pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings, PointsBet.
Our models are showing value at +119 on Kansas City, though that line is not typically available at US-based sportsbooks (it is at some offshores). We were waiting to see if we could find any better value until today in US markets, but this is the best available at BetMGM.
Some of our arguments/rationale for Kansas City is that while San Francisco has been the better team over the course of the full season, our ratings have Kansas City as the better side since after Thanksgiving, after the point at which SF all-pro safety Talanoa Hufanga was lost for the year, and the 49ers defense has been worse.
KC also concentrated the offense, increasing the share of snaps and targets to rookie WR Rashee Rice, and the team has played its best in the postseason.
Super Bowl teams that have played out of the Wild Card Round, often winning on the road, have a recent history of that improved form continuing in the Super Bowl, going 10-4 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1995.
Pick published: Feb 11 1:36pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 102
Published Feb 5 6:07pm ET
NCAABMoneyline
Texas To Win
-130
Lost: 65-70
Iowa State at Texas
Tue Feb 6 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Texas wins the game against Iowa State on Tuesday, February 6.
Staff notes:
Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
The -130 line is slightly better than our consensus from global books. Our models have it as a strong play up to -138.
Pick published: Feb 5 6:07pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 642
Published Feb 6 6:35pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Magic To Win
+134
Lost: 95-121
Magic at Heat
Tue Feb 6 • 7:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Magic beat the Heat on Tuesday, February 6.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Feb 6 6:35pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 577
Published Feb 3 10:29am ET
NCAABMoneyline
Southern Miss To Win
+115
Lost: 55-60
Southern Miss at Texas State
Sat Feb 3 • 5:15pm ET
More info
How it wins:Southern Miss wins the game against Texas State on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a top-rated spread and moneyline pick for Saturday in CBB.
Our top-rated moneyline picks are +16.1 units (45 games) so far this season.
Pick published: Feb 3 10:29am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 723
Published Feb 1 12:17pm ET
NCAABMoneyline
Morehead St. To Win
-190
Won: 68-49
Morehead St. at Tennessee St.
Thu Feb 1 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Morehead State beats Tennessee State on Thursday, February 1.
Staff notes:
Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
The -190 line is also a good value compared to some other U.S. books. Our models have it as a strong play up to -193.
Pick published: Feb 1 12:17pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.
Rot# 781
Published Jan 31 7:34pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Nets To Win
+140
Lost: 120-136
Suns at Nets
Wed Jan 31 • 8:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Nets beat the Suns on Wednesday, January 31.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Jan 31 7:34pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet.
Rot# 582
Published Jan 27 11:50am ET
NCAABMoneyline
Liberty To Win
-225
Lost: 62-73
Liberty at Jacksonville St.
Sat Jan 27 • 5:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Liberty wins the game against Jacksonville State on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a highly-rated moneyline play for Saturday.
Over the last three seasons, our highest-rated moneyline plays have gone 73-58 SU for +27.8 units.
Pick published: Jan 27 11:50am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.
Rot# 739
Published Jan 24 12:37pm ET
NCAABMoneyline
Gardner-Webb To Win
+180
Won: 76-64
Gardner-Webb at Longwood
Wed Jan 24 • 7:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Gardner Webb beats Longwood on Wednesday, January 24.
Staff notes:
Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
The +180 line at BetMGM is also a good value compared to the market. Our models have it as a strong play down to +170.
Pick published: Jan 24 12:37pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 306515
Published Jan 19 10:00am ET
NFLMoneyline
Chiefs To Win
+130
Won: 27-24
Chiefs at Bills
Sun Jan 21 • 6:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:Kansas City wins the game against Buffalo in the Divisional Round.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model moneyline pick for the Divisional Round.
Kansas City has rarely been an underdog with Patrick Mahomes at QB in his career, but are 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS when getting points, including the SB win last year over Philadelphia.
Since 2002, underdogs of less than a field goal (KC is +2.5 currently) have a winning record in the playoffs at 23-22 (26-18-1 ATS). We have moneyline records back to 2010 in the playoffs, and since then, underdogs of 2.5 or fewer points are 16-12 SU for +6.4 units.
Pick published: Jan 19 10:00am ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 317
Published Jan 20 11:24am ET
NCAABMoneyline
Texas Tech To Win
-130
Won: 85-78
Brigham Young at Texas Tech
Sat Jan 20 • 6:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Texas Tech wins the game against BYU on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model and spread pick for Saturday.
Texas Tech has had an average rating of +15.5 in the last 9 games, since they lost Devan Cambridge for the season and switched to the current lineup, compared to+9.9 rating for the first 8 games.
Pick published: Jan 20 11:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 750
Published Dec 31 10:10am ET
NFLMoneyline
Packers To Win
+100
Won: 33-10
Packers at Vikings
Sun Dec 31 • 8:20pm ET
More info
How it wins:Green Bay wins the game in Week 17.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline and spread pick in Week 17.
A few years ago, we wrote about teams going for the division sweep at home. At that time, teams that won the first division matchup on the road were only 44% ATS in the return home matchup.
Minnesota won at Green Bay earlier in the year, but the situations have shifted. Minnesota is now starting their fourth QB, rookie Jaren Hall, who briefly started one game earlier but lasted only one quarter before getting hurt.
Pick published: Dec 31 10:10am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 131
Published Dec 27 5:01pm ET
NFLMoneyline
Saints To Win
+120
Won: 23-13
Saints at Buccaneers
Sun Dec 31 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:New Orleans wins the game at Tampa Bay in Week 17.
Staff notes:
This is our top playable moneyline model pick in Week 17.
The Bucs can clinch the division with a win at home against the Saints, but this has been a division where the underdogs have prevailed. A few years ago, we wrote about teams going for the division sweep at home. At that time, teams that won the first division matchup on the road were only 44% ATS in the return home matchup. (The Bucs won in New Orleans back in Week 4, 26-9.
The home team is only 17-27 ATS since 2002 in the Bucs-Saints series, and the Saints are 14-7 SU and ATS in Tampa over the last 21 trips.
Pick published: Dec 27 5:01pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.
Rot# 121
Published Dec 28 10:46am ET
NCAAFMoneyline
Oklahoma To Win
+110
Lost: 24-38
Arizona vs. Oklahoma
Thu Dec 28 • 9:15pm ET
More info
How it wins:Oklahoma wins the Alamo Bowl.
Staff notes:
This is our top playable moneyline pick for bowls currently.
Oklahoma starting QB Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon, but the program will start true freshman Jackson Arnold, a 5-star recruit who was National Gatorade Player of the Year. Arnold has played a limited number of snaps but has completed 75% of his passes and been as efficient as Gabriel.
Our predictive rating model would have Oklahoma as a large favorite (12.5 points) in this one, so the line is discounted quite a bit for transfer news, but we see value on taking Oklahoma with their quarterback of the future making his first start.
Pick published: Dec 28 10:46am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.
Rot# 256
Published Dec 28 10:46am ET
NCAAFMoneyline
NC State To Win
+130
Lost: 19-28
NC State vs. Kansas St.
Thu Dec 28 • 5:45pm ET
More info
How it wins:NC State wins the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline model play at +110, and the line available at some US books is better for value right now, including DraftKings at +130.
This moneyline opened at +150 when bowls were announced but has been steadily moving downward at key books.
Kansas State QB Will Howard entered the transfer portal, and offensive coordinator Colin Klein took a job at Texas A&M, potentially impacting the Kansas State offense.
Pick published: Dec 28 10:46am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 253
Published Dec 20 6:18pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Raptors To Win
+154
Lost: 104-113
Nuggets at Raptors
Wed Dec 20 • 7:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Raptors beat the Nuggets on Wednesday, December 20.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Dec 20 6:18pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 542
Published Dec 18 7:17pm ET
NCAABMoneyline
Portland St. To Win
+160
Won: 75-72
Portland St. at Fresno St.
Mon Dec 18 • 10:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Portland State beats Fresno State on Monday, December 18.
Staff notes:
Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
The +160 line at DraftKings is also a good value compared to the market. Our models have it as a strong play down to +144.
Pick published: Dec 18 7:17pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 885
Published Dec 14 3:05pm ET
NFLMoneyline
Bears To Win
+146
Lost: 17-20
Bears at Browns
Sun Dec 17 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Chicago wins the game against Cleveland in Week 15.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline model pick for Week 15.
We have successfully picked the Bears as an upset play in each of their last two games in our Upset Picks articles (wins over Minnesota and Detroit) and will continue to ride them. The Bears’ defense has been playing much better and has held three of the last four opponents under 300 total yards and under 200 net passing yards.
After an 0-3 SU and ATS start where they lost each game by double digits, Chicago is 6-2-2 against the number, and have covered 4 straight as a dog, and three straight since Justin Fields returned from injury.
Pick published: Dec 14 3:05pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 309
Published Dec 17 10:48am ET
NFLMoneyline
Panthers To Win
+134
Won: 9-7
Falcons at Panthers
Sun Dec 17 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Carolina wins the game against Atlanta in Week 15.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline pick for Week 15 (and spread pick).
This line has been moving downward and is at +2.5 at some places and +3 in others, so we are listing the moneyline as the recommended play, but you could also play the +3 if you can get it.
The weather in Charlotte is going to be very rough today, the total is at an extremely low 32.5, and there are high expected wind gusts and rain throughout the game.
Pick published: Dec 17 10:48am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 308
Published Dec 13 7:07pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Spurs To Win
+140
Lost: 119-122
Lakers at Spurs
Wed Dec 13 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Spurs beat the Lakers on Wednesday, December 13.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Dec 13 7:07pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.
Rot# 512
Published Dec 10 11:07am ET
NFLMoneyline
Broncos To Win
+134
Won: 24-7
Broncos at Chargers
Sun Dec 10 • 4:25pm ET
More info
How it wins:Denver wins the game at the LA Chargers in Week 14.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 14.
The Chargers, quite frankly, are not very good on offense right now. Since WR Mike Williams suffered a season-ending injury, the team is averaging 17 first downs a game, something that has only gotten worse without WR Josh Palmer as well. First round pick Quentin Johnston has been a huge disappointment. Yes, the Chargers won last week, but did so with 6 total points and a season-low 13 first downs on offense.
For the year, the Chargers are 29th in yards allowed and 15th in yards gained, but the two best offensive games by yards came in the first three weeks of the season.
Denver, meanwhile, is going the opposite way, having poor defensive numbers early, but being competitive since that start to climb back to 6-6. They are coming off a loss where they went -3 in turnovers at Houston, but should have value as a dog in this AFC West tilt.
Pick published: Dec 10 11:07am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 123
Published Dec 10 11:07am ET
NFLMoneyline
Buccaneers To Win
+110
Won: 29-25
Buccaneers at Falcons
Sun Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Tampa Bay wins at Atlanta in Week 14.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 14.
Atlanta won a close game at Tampa Bay back in Week 7 as a slight underdog.
A few years ago, we wrote a research article on home division teams going for the sweep after winning on the road, and how they underperformed against the spread in the second game.
The road team in a division game, seeking to avoid the sweep, was 55.3% ATS from 2008 to 2020.
Pick published: Dec 10 11:07am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars.
Rot# 113
Published Dec 2 7:19pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Pacers To Win
+166
Won: 144-129
Pacers at Heat
Sat Dec 2 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Pacers beat the Heat on Saturday, December 2.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Dec 2 7:19pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 543
Published Nov 30 6:30pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Pacers To Win
+143
Lost: 132-142
Pacers at Heat
Thu Nov 30 • 7:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Pacers beat the Heat on Thursday, November 30.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Nov 30 6:30pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 503
Published Nov 28 7:42pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Rockets To Win
+150
Lost: 115-121
Rockets at Mavericks
Tue Nov 28 • 8:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Rockets beat the Mavericks on Tuesday, November 28.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Nov 28 7:42pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 553
Published Nov 28 7:40pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Thunder To Win
+135
Lost: 103-106
Thunder at Timberwolves
Tue Nov 28 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Thunder beat the Timberwolves on Tuesday, November 28.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Nov 28 7:40pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 551
Published Nov 22 10:54am ET
NFLMoneyline
Texans To Win
+102
Lost: 21-24
Jaguars at Texans
Sun Nov 26 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Houston Texans win the game in Week 12.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 12.
Houston is a slight home underdog in a game where they have a chance to complete the sweep of the Jags and move into first place in the AFC South.
The Texans overcame three interceptions and won last week, as the passing offense continues to excel in year 1 for QB C.J. Stroud.
The Texans have the pass efficiency advantage in this one, and their rushing offense has shown signs of life in the last two games with RB Devin Singletary carrying the load.
Pick published: Nov 22 10:54am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.
Rot# 252
Published Nov 26 10:35am ET
NFLMoneyline
Falcons To Win
+110
Won: 24-15
Saints at Falcons
Sun Nov 26 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Atlanta wins the game against New Orleans in Week 12.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model moneyline pick (and spread pick at +2) for Week 12.
Some of the model factors here include Atlanta's poor turnover margin and yardage profile relative to their points scored and allowed, due to turnover margin, New Orleans' poor rushing offense per play numbers, and Atlanta's high rate of rushing the football.
Pick published: Nov 26 10:35am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.
Rot# 262
Published Nov 22 11:03am ET
NBAMoneyline
Grizzlies To Win
+168
Lost: 91-111
Grizzlies at Rockets
Wed Nov 22 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Grizzlies beat the Rockets on Wednesday, November 22.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Nov 22 11:03am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 545
Published Nov 22 11:03am ET
NBAMoneyline
Bulls To Win
+225
Lost: 102-116
Bulls at Thunder
Wed Nov 22 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Bulls beat the Thunder on Wednesday, November 22.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Nov 22 11:03am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.
Rot# 541
Published Nov 19 4:48pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Cavaliers To Win
+140
Won: 121-109
Nuggets at Cavaliers
Sun Nov 19 • 6:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Cavaliers beat the Nuggets on Sunday, November 19.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Nov 19 4:48pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 562
Published Nov 19 4:47pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Magic To Win
+158
Won: 128-116
Magic at Pacers
Sun Nov 19 • 5:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Magic beat the Pacers on Sunday, November 19.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Nov 19 4:47pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 559
Published Nov 16 4:55pm ET
NFLMoneyline
Steelers To Win
+100
Lost: 10-13
Steelers at Browns
Sun Nov 19 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Pittsburgh wins the game in Week 11.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline Ensemble Forecast model pick, and also a play based on "fading the predictive ratings model extremes."
Over the last six weeks, underdogs who are rated under -20% cover odds with our predictive ratings model are 6-3 SU for +10.8 units, these are often games where injury info has shifted the line.
In this case, Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson is now out for the season, and the Browns plan to start rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who previously started the 28-3 loss to Baltimore where the Browns had a season-low 166 yards of offense.
Pick published: Nov 16 4:55pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 451
Published Nov 14 7:30pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Warriors To Win
+130
Lost: 101-104
Timberwolves at Warriors
Tue Nov 14 • 10:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Warriors beat the Timberwolves on Tuesday, November 14.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Nov 14 7:30pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.
Rot# 578
Published Nov 14 7:29pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Clippers To Win
+162
Lost: 108-111
Clippers at Nuggets
Tue Nov 14 • 10:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Clippers beat the Nuggets on Tuesday, November 14.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Nov 14 7:29pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 575
Published Nov 10 8:01pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Kings To Win
+110
Won: 105-98
Thunder at Kings
Fri Nov 10 • 10:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Kings beat the Thunder on Friday, November 10.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Nov 10 8:01pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 520
Published Nov 9 8:21pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Magic To Win
+136
Lost: 119-120
Hawks vs. Magic
Thu Nov 9 • 9:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Magic beat the Hawks on Thursday, November 9.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Nov 9 8:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 504
Published Nov 6 6:16pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Jazz To Win
+158
Lost: 113-130
Jazz at Bulls
Mon Nov 6 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Jazz beat the Bulls on Monday, November 6.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Nov 6 6:16pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 547
Published Nov 1 3:48pm ET
NFLMoneyline
Titans To Win
+124
Lost: 16-20
Titans at Steelers
Thu Nov 2 • 8:15pm ET
More info
How it wins:Tennessee wins the game on Thursday Night Football in Week 9.
Staff notes:
This is one of our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model moneyline picks for Week 9.
Tennessee looked substantially different on offense, with Will Levis throwing four touchdown passes in his first start (Ryan Tannehill had two all season). Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has been a poor passing offense with our without Kenny Pickett, who said he would play on the short week with a rib injury. He has had more than one TD pass in one start in his career.
Pittsburgh leads the league in fumbles recovered (8) while being near the top of the NFL in fewest fumbles recovered by opponents (2). They rank at the top of our adjusted turnover margin metric, benefiting from 24 total turnovers/turnovers on downs/missed field goals so far, an area of regression.
That explains how a team that is getting outgained and has been outscored can still be 4-3. But the Steelers look overvalued, and there’s a chance the Titans have found a better QB, and will have the much better passing offense in this matchup.
Pick published: Nov 1 3:48pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 309
Published Nov 2 5:38pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Pistons To Win
+184
Lost: 116-125
Pistons at Pelicans
Thu Nov 2 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Pistons beat the Pelicans on Thursday, November 2.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Nov 2 5:38pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 557
Published Oct 30 6:20pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Magic To Win
+143
Lost: 103-106
Magic at Lakers
Mon Oct 30 • 10:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Magic beat the Lakers on Monday, October 30.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Oct 30 6:20pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 521
Published Oct 30 6:20pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Warriors To Win
+165
Won: 130-102
Warriors at Pelicans
Mon Oct 30 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Warriors beat the Pelicans on Monday, October 30.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Oct 30 6:20pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 515
Published Oct 30 6:20pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Bulls To Win
+140
Won: 112-105
Bulls at Pacers
Mon Oct 30 • 7:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Bulls beat the Pacers on Monday, October 30.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Oct 30 6:20pm ET, available at that time at Caesars, PointsBet.
Rot# 501
Published Oct 27 4:22pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Trail Blazers To Win
+130
Lost: 97-102
Magic at Trail Blazers
Fri Oct 27 • 10:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Trail Blazers beat the Magic on Friday, October 27.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Oct 27 4:22pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 552
Published Oct 27 4:22pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Raptors To Win
+122
Lost: 103-104
Raptors at Bulls
Fri Oct 27 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Raptors beat the Bulls on Friday, October 27.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Oct 27 4:22pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 543
Published Oct 27 4:22pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Warriors To Win
+128
Won: 122-114
Warriors at Kings
Fri Oct 27 • 10:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Warriors beat the Kings on Friday, October 27.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Oct 27 4:22pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 553
Published Oct 25 4:52pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Thunder To Win
+122
Won: 124-104
Thunder at Bulls
Wed Oct 25 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Thunder win the game against the Bulls on October 25th.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Oct 25 4:52pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 519
Published Oct 25 4:52pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Hornets To Win
+148
Won: 116-110
Hawks at Hornets
Wed Oct 25 • 7:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Hornets beat the Hawks on October 25th.
Staff notes:
Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.
Pick published: Oct 25 4:52pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 506
Published Oct 18 5:42pm ET
NFLMoneyline
Falcons To Win
+124
Won: 16-13
Falcons at Buccaneers
Sun Oct 22 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Atlanta wins the game against Tampa Bay in Week 7.
Staff notes:
This is one of our top-rated moneyline plays for Week 7 (and also a playable spread pick at +2.5).
Atlanta held Washington to just 13 first downs and under 200 total yards last week, but lost partly thanks to three interceptions.
In fact, several angles for this pick relate to possible regression around luck-related factors. Tampa Bay is +6 in turnover margin on the season, while Atlanta is -6. Atlanta has also underperformed in terms of points scored compared to yards gained.
Both of these teams’ rush defenses have been stout, but the Bucs have put up poor offensive performances in their two recent losses, with a rushing offense that ranks 32nd in the NFL.
That could put more pressure on QB Baker Mayfield, as the Atlanta defense is quietly playing well, ranking 4th overall in total yards allowed this season.
Pick published: Oct 18 5:42pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 451
Published Oct 15 10:56am ET
NFLMoneyline
Texans To Win
+110
Won: 20-13
Saints at Texans
Sun Oct 15 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Houston wins the game against New Orleans in Week 6.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline pick for Week 6.
Houston has covered in three straight, but with the point spread at only +1.5 our models see a little more value on the outright win moneyline than the spread at -110.
New Orleans is coming off a 34-0 shutout at New England where they forced three turnovers, had two turnovers on downs, and the Patriots missed a field goal, making it one of the most extreme turnover and miscue games of the season.
Model factors include New Orleans' low season yards per carry (3.4) and Houston allowing few passing touchdowns (a league-leading three allowed so far in five games).
Pick published: Oct 15 10:56am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Washington has been a Jekyll-and-Hyde team this year, and are coming off an embarrassing performance, especially for the defense, where they allowed Chicago to roll, and WR D.J. Moore to have over 200 yards receiving and three touchdowns. Washington now ranks 31st in points allowed.
But they now get to play an Atlanta team that has not been very explosive and is not an agressive passing team. Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder only has four passing TDs this year, none longer than 15 yards (two were basically short passes behind the line to Bijan Robinson).
So we’ll play on the better offense getting positive value, against a team that has yet to show consistency on that side of the ball, and for Washington’s defense to show a little better than their recent effort.
Pick published: Oct 11 4:36pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 253
Published Oct 8 7:32am ET
NFLMoneyline
Jaguars To Win
+210
Won: 25-20
Jaguars vs. Bills
Sun Oct 8 • 9:30am ET
More info
How it wins:Jaguars win the game in Week 5.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline pick for Week 5.
The “London” Jaguars got to stay in England for two straight weeks and welcome the Buffalo Bills this week. Buffalo has been rolling over the last three weeks, though the fickle shift of the turnover gods has been a part in just how dominant they have appeared.
After four turnovers in the opening loss to the Jets, things have swung wildly the other way, with Buffalo at +9 in turnovers over the most recent three games. Some of that extreme turnover performance is what our models are picking up.
We also like the potential value of the unknown situation of one team getting a travel advantage in London, something that has never happened before.
Pick published: Oct 8 7:32am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 451
Published Oct 1 9:22am ET
NFLMoneyline
Titans To Win
+130
Won: 27-3
Bengals at Titans
Sun Oct 1 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Tennessee Titans win the game in Week 4.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model moneyline (and spread pick at +2.5) in Week 4.
The Bengals won 19-16 last week, taking advantage of a LT injury for the Rams to shut down their offense and create lots of pressure last week, but the offense is still not clicking.
Some of the key model factors here including the Titans' strong rush defense (2.6 yards per carry allowed) and the Bengals' low rate of picking up first downs on the ground, Cincinnati's low passing yards totals in recent games, and the Titans' rush to pass splits.
Pick published: Oct 1 9:22am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.
Rot# 270
Published Sep 20 5:49pm ET
NFLMoneyline
Rams To Win
+124
Lost: 16-19
Rams at Bengals
Mon Sep 25 • 8:15pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Los Angeles Rams win the game at Cincinnati in Week 3.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
This is also a line that is far off the expected moneyline based on full season power ratings (because of the uncertainty over Joe Burrow and his injury). Over the first two weeks, underdogs on the moneyline that are more than -10% off what we would expect based on power ratings are 5-2 for +5 units. (These also tend to be situations where injuries are impacting the line, beyond the base rating.)
Joe Burrow's status for this game is up in the air, but we like the pick whether he plays while still hurt (where the Bengals have been really bad on offense and he is averaging under 5 yards per attempt while limited) or Jake Browning, who has never completed a pass in the NFL and is 27 years old, starts instead.
The Rams are also a live dog, as they are 2nd in the NFL in total yards after two weeks and the offense has returned to form with a healthy Matthew Stafford, even without WR Cooper Kupp.
Pick published: Sep 20 5:49pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 479
Published Sep 10 11:25am ET
NFLMoneyline
Browns To Win
+110
Won: 24-3
Bengals at Browns
Sun Sep 10 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Cleveland wins the game in Week 1 against Cincinnati.
Staff notes:
This is one of our top model plays on the moneyline for Week 1 and one of the picks featured in Wednesday's Upset Picks.
Cleveland has played well against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense in the past, including holding the Bengals to their lowest offensive output of the 2022 season.
Burrow is coming off a preseason where he suffered an early calf injury and had limited practice time.
There's some uncertainty upside on this Browns team as a home dog in the opener, as Deshaun Watson struggled in his late-season return last year after multiple years not playing, but the team could be a better passing team early in 2023.
Pick published: Sep 10 11:25am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 458
Published Aug 7 4:10pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Reds To Win
+125
Won: 5-2
Marlins at Reds
Mon Aug 7 • 6:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Cincinnati wins the game against Miami on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model and Ensemble Forecast Model.
The pitching matchup is Brandon Williamson of Cincinnati and Eury Perez of Miami.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Aug 7 4:10pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 956
Published Jul 26 4:28pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Phillies To Win
-110
Won: 6-4
Orioles at Phillies
Wed Jul 26 • 6:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Philadelphia wins the game against Baltimore on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Ranger Suarez of Philadelphia and Kyle Bradish of Baltimore.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jul 26 4:28pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 972
Published Jul 24 5:49pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Dodgers To Win
-120
Lost: 3-6
Blue Jays at Dodgers
Mon Jul 24 • 10:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:The LA Dodgers win the game against Toronto on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Michael Grove of Los Angeles and Jose Berrios of Toronto.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jul 24 5:49pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.
Rot# 970
Published Jul 22 2:00pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Brewers To Win
+120
Won: 4-3
Braves at Brewers
Sat Jul 22 • 7:15pm ET
More info
How it wins:Milwaukee wins the game against Atlanta on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Adrian Houser of Milwaukee and Allan Winans of Atlanta.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jul 22 2:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings, PointsBet.
Rot# 960
Published Jul 19 4:47pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Giants To Win
-108
Lost: 2-3
Giants at Reds
Wed Jul 19 • 7:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:San Francisco wins the game against Cincinnati on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Ross Stripling of San Francisco and Graham Ashcraft of Cincinnati.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jul 19 4:47pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 905
Published Jul 16 9:51am ET
MLBMoneyline
Rangers To Win
-130
Won: 6-5
Guardians at Rangers
Sun Jul 16 • 2:35pm ET
More info
How it wins:Texas wins the game against Cleveland on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Martin Perez of Texas and Tanner Bibee of Cleveland.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jul 16 9:51am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 964
Published Jul 7 3:23pm ET
MLBMoneyline
White Sox To Win
-104
Won: 8-7
Cardinals at White Sox
Fri Jul 7 • 8:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Chicago wins the game against St. Louis on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Dylan Cease of Chicago and Jordan Montgomery of St. Louis.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jul 7 3:23pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 928
Published Jul 7 3:23pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rays To Win
-108
Lost: 1-2
Braves at Rays
Fri Jul 7 • 6:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Tampa Bay wins the game against Atlanta on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Tyler Glasnow of Tampa Bay and Charlie Morton of Atlanta.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jul 7 3:23pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 922
Published Jul 7 3:23pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Marlins To Win
+115
Lost: 3-4
Phillies at Marlins
Fri Jul 7 • 6:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Miami wins the game against Philadelphia on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Sandy Alcantara of Miami and Zack Wheeler of New York.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jul 7 3:23pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.
Rot# 902
Published Jul 4 2:08pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Brewers To Win
-112
Lost: 6-7
Cubs at Brewers
Tue Jul 4 • 4:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Milwaukee wins the game against Chicago on the 4th of July.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Wade Miley of Milwaukee and Kyle Hendricks of Chicago.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jul 4 2:08pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 958
Published Jul 4 2:08pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Diamondbacks To Win
+130
Lost: 5-8
Mets at Diamondbacks
Tue Jul 4 • 4:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Arizona wins the game against the New York Mets on the 4th of July.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Zach Davies of Arizona and Kodai Senga of the Mets.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jul 4 2:08pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 956
Published Jun 26 2:40pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Orioles To Win
-130
Won: 10-3
Reds at Orioles
Mon Jun 26 • 7:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Baltimore wins the game against Cincinnati on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Cole Irvin of Baltimore and Brandon Williamson of Cincinnati.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 26 2:40pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 958
Published Jun 20 5:23pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Nationals To Win
+130
Lost: 3-9
Cardinals at Nationals
Tue Jun 20 • 7:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Washington wins the game against St. Louis on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is MacKenzie Gore of Washington and Jordan Montgomery of St. Louis.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 20 5:23pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 956
Published Jun 19 6:45pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Brewers To Win
-115
Lost: 1-9
Diamondbacks at Brewers
Mon Jun 19 • 8:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Milwaukee wins the game against Arizona on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Corbin Burnes of Milwaukee and Merrill Kelly of Arizona.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 19 6:45pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 908
Published Jun 18 12:24pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Athletics To Win
+205
Lost: 2-3
Phillies at Athletics
Sun Jun 18 • 4:07pm ET
More info
How it wins:Oakland wins the game against Philadelphia on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Hogan Harris of Oakland and Zack Wheeler of Philadelphia.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 18 12:24pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 976
Published Jun 18 12:24pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rangers To Win
-135
Won: 11-7
Blue Jays at Rangers
Sun Jun 18 • 2:35pm ET
More info
How it wins:Texas wins the game against Toronto on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Jon Gray of Texas and Chris Bassitt of Toronto.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 18 12:24pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 966
Published Jun 18 12:24pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Mets To Win
-130
Lost: 7-8
Cardinals at Mets
Sun Jun 18 • 1:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:The New York Mets win the game against St. Louis on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Carlos Carrasco of the Mets and Matthew Liberatore of St. Louis.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 18 12:24pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 956
Published Jun 15 5:06pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Astros To Win
-190
Lost: 1-4
Nationals at Astros
Thu Jun 15 • 8:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Houston wins the game against Washington on Thursday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Thursday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Cristian Javier of Houston and MacKenzie Gore of Washington.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 15 5:06pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 916
Published Jun 14 1:59pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rockies To Win
+205
Lost: 3-6
Rockies at Red Sox
Wed Jun 14 • 7:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Colorado wins the game against Boston on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Austin Gomber of Colorado and Garrett Whitlock of Boston.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 14 1:59pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 967
Published Jun 14 1:59pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Reds To Win
-110
Won: 7-4
Reds at Royals
Wed Jun 14 • 8:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Cincinnati wins the game against Kansas City on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Ben Lively of Cincinnati and Daniel Lynch of Kansas City.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 14 1:59pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 971
Published Jun 12 2:43pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rangers To Win
-155
Lost: 6-9
Angels at Rangers
Mon Jun 12 • 8:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Texas wins the game against the Los Angeles Angels on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Dane Dunning of Texas and Tyler Anderson of Los Angeles.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 12 2:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 956
Published Jun 12 2:43pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rockies To Win
+205
Won: 4-3
Rockies at Red Sox
Mon Jun 12 • 7:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Colorado wins the game against Boston on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Connor Seabold of Colorado and James Paxton of Boston.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 12 2:43pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 961
Published Jun 10 3:12pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Angels To Win
-130
Lost: 2-6
Mariners at Angels
Sat Jun 10 • 10:07pm ET
More info
How it wins:Los Angeles wins the game against Seattle on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Patrick Sandoval of Los Angeles and Bryan Woo of Seattle.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 10 3:12pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.
Rot# 974
Published Jun 9 6:26pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Pirates To Win
-115
Won: 14-7
Mets at Pirates
Fri Jun 9 • 7:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Pittsburgh wins the game against the New York Mets on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Rich Hill of Pittsburgh and Tylor Megill of New York.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 9 6:26pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.
Rot# 904
Published Jun 8 12:30pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rays To Win
-115
Won: 4-2
Twins at Rays
Thu Jun 8 • 1:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Tampa Bay wins the game against Minnesota on Thursday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Thursday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Yonny Chirinos of Tampa Bay and Bailey Ober of Minnesota.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 8 12:30pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.
Rot# 960
Published Jun 7 1:12pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rangers To Win
-145
Lost: 0-1
Cardinals at Rangers
Wed Jun 7 • 8:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Texas wins the game against St. Louis on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Jon Gray of Texas and Jack Flaherty of St. Louis.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 7 1:12pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, PointsBet.
Rot# 928
Published Jun 7 1:13pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rays To Win
-130
Won: 2-1
Twins at Rays
Wed Jun 7 • 6:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Tampa Bay wins the game against Minnesota on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Shawn Armstrong of Tampa Bay (an opener) and Pablo Lopez of Minnesota.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 7 1:13pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings, PointsBet.
Rot# 910
Published Jun 5 8:46am ET
MLBMoneyline
Blue Jays To Win
-125
Lost: 4-11
Astros at Blue Jays
Mon Jun 5 • 7:07pm ET
More info
How it wins:Toronto wins the game against Houston on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Alek Manoah of Toronto and Brandon Bielak of Houston.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Jun 5 8:46am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 906
Published May 29 10:27am ET
MLBMoneyline
Astros To Win
-122
Lost: 5-7
Twins at Astros
Mon May 29 • 4:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Houston wins the game against Minnesota on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is J.P. France of Houston and Sonny Gray of Minnesota.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 29 10:27am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 962
Published May 26 11:58am ET
MLBMoneyline
Twins To Win
+140
Lost: 1-3
Blue Jays at Twins
Fri May 26 • 8:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Minnesota wins the game against Toronto on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Louie Varland of Minnesota against Kevin Gausman of Toronto.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 26 11:58am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 914
Published May 25 10:27am ET
MLBMoneyline
Yankees To Win
-132
Lost: 1-3
Orioles at Yankees
Thu May 25 • 7:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:The New York Yankees win the game against Baltimore on Thursday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Thursday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Clarke Schmidt of New York against Kyle Gibson of Baltimore.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 25 10:27am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 968
Published May 24 3:10pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rockies To Win
+148
Lost: 2-10
Marlins at Rockies
Wed May 24 • 8:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Colorado wins the game against Miami on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Karl Kauffmann of Colorado and Sandy Alcantara of Miami.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 24 3:10pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 912
Published May 23 2:49pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Royals To Win
+132
Won: 4-1
Tigers at Royals
Tue May 23 • 7:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Kansas City wins the game against Detroit on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Mike Mayers of Kansas City against Eduardo Rodriguez of Detroit.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 23 2:49pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 970
Published May 22 12:30pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Angels To Win
-115
Won: 2-1
Red Sox at Angels
Mon May 22 • 9:38pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Los Angeles Angels win the game against the Boston Red Sox on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Jaime Barria of Los Angeles against Tanner Houck of Boston.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 22 12:30pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.
Rot# 916
Published May 22 12:30pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rays To Win
-110
Won: 6-4
Blue Jays at Rays
Mon May 22 • 6:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Tampa Bay wins the game against Toronto on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Trevor Kelley as the opener for Tampa Bay, with Josh Fleming as the primary pitcher, against Chris Bassitt for Toronto.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. When backing teams using an opener over that span, the model has performed even better.
Pick published: May 22 12:30pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.
Rot# 912
Published May 21 12:14pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Nationals To Win
-134
Won: 6-4
Tigers at Nationals
Sun May 21 • 1:35pm ET
More info
How it wins:Washington wins the game against Detroit on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Josiah Gray of Washington and Joey Wentz of Detroit.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 21 12:14pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 972
Published May 21 12:14pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Braves To Win
-115
Won: 3-2
Mariners at Braves
Sun May 21 • 1:35pm ET
More info
How it wins:Atlanta wins the game against Seattle on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Jared Schuster of Atlanta and George Kirby of Seattle.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 21 12:14pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 970
Published May 19 11:25am ET
MLBMoneyline
Angels To Win
+110
Won: 5-4
Twins at Angels
Fri May 19 • 9:38pm ET
More info
How it wins:The LA Angels win the game against Minnesota on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Reid Detmers of LA and Joe Ryan of Minnesota.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 19 11:25am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 966
Published May 19 11:25am ET
MLBMoneyline
White Sox To Win
-126
Won: 2-0
Royals at White Sox
Fri May 19 • 8:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Chicago White Sox win the game against Kansas City on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Michael Kopech of Chicago and Zack Greinke of Kansas City.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 19 11:25am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 964
Published May 17 1:56pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Guardians To Win
+120
Lost: 2-7
Guardians at White Sox
Wed May 17 • 8:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Cleveland wins the game against the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Peyton Battenfield of Cleveland against Mike Clevinger of Chicago.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 17 1:56pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 965
Published May 16 11:06am ET
MLBMoneyline
Diamondbacks To Win
-150
Lost: 8-9
Diamondbacks at Athletics
Tue May 16 • 9:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Arizona wins the game against Oakland on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Tommy Henry of Arizona against Tyler Muller of Oakland.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 16 11:06am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 925
Published May 16 11:06am ET
MLBMoneyline
Rays To Win
+138
Won: 8-5
Rays at Mets
Tue May 16 • 7:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Tampa Bay wins the game against the New York Mets on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Jalen Beeks of Tampa Bay against Justin Verlander of the Mets.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. The ROI has been higher in games involving an opener like Tampa Bay is using for this game.
Pick published: May 16 11:06am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 919
Published May 16 11:06am ET
MLBMoneyline
Pirates To Win
+108
Lost: 0-4
Pirates at Tigers
Tue May 16 • 6:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Pittsburgh wins the game against Detroit on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Luis Ortiz of Pittsburgh and Michael Lorenzen of Detroit.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 16 11:06am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 917
Published May 14 12:55pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Red Sox To Win
+102
Lost: 1-9
Cardinals at Red Sox
Sun May 14 • 7:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Boston wins the game against St. Louis on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Corey Kluber of Boston against Miles Mikolas of St. Louis.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 14 12:55pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 930
Published May 14 12:55pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Diamondbacks To Win
+120
Won: 2-1
Giants at Diamondbacks
Sun May 14 • 4:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Arizona wins the game against San Francisco on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Brandon Pfaadt of Arizona against Logan Webb of San Francisco.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 14 12:55pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.
Rot# 910
Published May 13 10:13am ET
MLBMoneyline
Nationals To Win
+126
Won: 3-2
Mets at Nationals
Sat May 13 • 4:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Washington wins the game against New York on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Trevor Williams of Washington against Joey Lucchesi of New York.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 13 10:13am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 954
Published May 13 10:13am ET
MLBMoneyline
Royals To Win
+140
Lost: 3-4
Royals at Brewers
Sat May 13 • 7:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Kansas City wins the game against Milwaukee on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Zack Greinke of Kansas City against Adrian Houser of Milwaukee.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 13 10:13am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.
Rot# 979
Published May 13 10:13am ET
MLBMoneyline
Rangers To Win
-140
Won: 5-0
Rangers at Athletics
Sat May 13 • 4:07pm ET
More info
How it wins:Texas wins the game against Oakland on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Jon Gray of Texas and J.P. Sears of Oakland.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 13 10:13am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 965
Published May 13 10:13am ET
MLBMoneyline
Red Sox To Win
-130
Lost: 3-4
Cardinals at Red Sox
Sat May 13 • 4:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Boston wins the game against St. Louis on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Corey Kluber of Boston against Miles Mikolas of St. Louis.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 13 10:13am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 976
Published May 12 11:33am ET
MLBMoneyline
Red Sox To Win
-115
Lost: 6-8
Cardinals at Red Sox
Fri May 12 • 7:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Arizona wins the game against San Francisco on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is James Paxton of Boston against Adam Wainwright of St. Louis.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 12 11:33am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.
Rot# 926
Published May 12 11:33am ET
MLBMoneyline
Rays To Win
+155
Lost: 5-6
Rays at Yankees
Fri May 12 • 7:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Tampa Bay wins the game against the New York Yankees on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Trevor Kelley of Tampa Bay against Gerrit Cole of New York.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
We are getting the division-leading Rays as an underdog here because of the pitching matchup, but when playing on teams using openers (like Tampa Bay tonight) the models have performed at over 10% ROI.
Pick published: May 12 11:33am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 913
Published May 9 3:26pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Royals To Win
+130
Lost: 2-4
White Sox at Royals
Tue May 9 • 7:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Kansas City wins the game against the White Sox on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Jordan Lyles of Kansas City against Lucas Giolito of Chicago.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 9 3:26pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 970
Published May 7 10:35am ET
MLBMoneyline
Cubs To Win
+100
Lost: 4-5
Marlins at Cubs
Sun May 7 • 2:20pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Chicago Cubs win the game against Miami on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Hayden Wesneski of Chicago and Sandy Alcantara of Miami.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 7 10:35am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.
Rot# 954
Published May 7 10:32am ET
MLBMoneyline
Pirates To Win
+112
Lost: 1-10
Blue Jays at Pirates
Sun May 7 • 1:35pm ET
More info
How it wins:Pittsburgh wins the game against Toronto on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Roansy Contreras of Pittsburgh and Yusei Kikuchi of Toronto.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 7 10:32am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 976
Published May 7 10:32am ET
MLBMoneyline
Twins To Win
-135
Lost: 0-2
Twins at Guardians
Sun May 7 • 1:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Minnesota wins the game against Cleveland on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Joe Ryan of Minnesota and Cal Quantrill of Cleveland.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 7 10:32am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 963
Published May 6 4:12pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Orioles To Win
+205
Lost: 4-5
Orioles at Braves
Sat May 6 • 7:15pm ET
More info
How it wins:Baltimore wins the game against Atlanta on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Kyle Bradish of Baltimore and Spencer Strider of Atlanta.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 6 4:12pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 927
Published May 6 4:12pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Pirates To Win
+130
Lost: 2-8
Blue Jays at Pirates
Sat May 6 • 6:35pm ET
More info
How it wins:Pittsburgh wins the game against Toronto on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Johan Oviedo of Pittsburgh and Jose Berrios of Toronto.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 6 4:12pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 924
Published May 5 4:46pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Tigers To Win
+190
Won: 5-4
Tigers at Cardinals
Fri May 5 • 8:15pm ET
More info
How it wins:Detroit wins the game against St. Louis on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Matthew Boyd of Detroit and Jordan Montgomery of St. Louis.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 5 4:46pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.
Rot# 979
Published May 5 4:46pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Orioles To Win
+184
Won: 9-4
Orioles at Braves
Fri May 5 • 7:20pm ET
More info
How it wins:Baltimore wins the game against Atlanta on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Dean Kremer of Baltimore and Max Fried of Atlanta.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 5 4:46pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 977
Published May 5 4:46pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Red Sox To Win
+140
Won: 5-3
Red Sox at Phillies
Fri May 5 • 7:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Boston wins the game against Philadelphia on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Chris Sale of Boston and Zack Wheeler of Philadelphia.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 5 4:46pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 975
Published May 5 4:46pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Reds To Win
-110
Lost: 4-5
White Sox at Reds
Fri May 5 • 6:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Cincinnati wins the game against the Chicago White Sox on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Hunter Greene of Cincinnati and Lance Lynn of Chicago.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 5 4:46pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 974
Published May 3 2:59pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Red Sox To Win
+120
Won: 8-3
Blue Jays at Red Sox
Wed May 3 • 7:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Boston wins the game against Toronto on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta of Boston and Alek Manoah of Toronto.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 3 2:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.
Rot# 964
Published May 3 2:59pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Pirates To Win
+185
Lost: 1-8
Pirates at Rays
Wed May 3 • 6:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Pittsburgh wins the game against Tampa Bay on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Mitch Keller of Pittsburgh and Shane McClanahan of Tampa Bay
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 3 2:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 975
Published May 2 3:37pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rangers To Win
+130
Won: 6-4
Diamondbacks at Rangers
Tue May 2 • 8:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Texas wins the game against Arizona on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Jon Gray of Texas and Zac Gallen of Arizona.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 2 3:37pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.
Rot# 928
Published May 2 3:37pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Tigers To Win
+135
Won: 6-5
Mets at Tigers
Wed May 3 • 1:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Detroit wins the game against the New York Mets on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Michael Lorenzen vs. Joey Lucchesi of New York.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
This game was marked "no action" since it was rained out on Tuesday, re-scheduled for Wednesday for the early game in a split doubleheader with a different total, and different listed starting pitcher for Detroit.
Pick published: May 2 3:37pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 982
Published May 2 3:37pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Red Sox To Win
+112
Won: 7-6
Blue Jays at Red Sox
Tue May 2 • 7:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Boston wins the game against Toronto on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Tanner Houck of Boston vs. Yusei Kikuchi of Toronto.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 2 3:37pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.
Rot# 914
Published May 1 1:20pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Red Sox To Win
+130
Won: 6-5
Blue Jays at Red Sox
Mon May 1 • 7:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Boston wins the game against Toronto on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Corey Kluber of Boston vs. Jose Berrios of Toronto.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 1 1:20pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.
Rot# 962
Published May 1 1:20pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Yankees To Win
-130
Lost: 2-3
Guardians at Yankees
Mon May 1 • 7:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:The New York Yankees win the game against Cleveland on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Domingo German for New York vs. Cal Quantrill of Cleveland.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: May 1 1:20pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.
Rot# 960
Published Apr 30 1:15pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Diamondbacks To Win
-130
Lost: 4-12
Diamondbacks at Rockies
Sun Apr 30 • 3:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Arizona wins the game against Colorado on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Ryne Nelson of Arizona vs. Austin Gomber for Colorado.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 30 1:15pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.
Rot# 909
Published Apr 30 1:15pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rangers To Win
+105
Won: 15-2
Yankees at Rangers
Sun Apr 30 • 2:35pm ET
More info
How it wins:Texas wins the game against the New York Yankees on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Martin Perez of Texas vs. Nestor Cortes of New York.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 30 1:15pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.
Rot# 924
Published Apr 29 12:13pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Diamondbacks To Win
-118
Won: 11-4
Diamondbacks at Rockies
Sat Apr 29 • 8:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Arizona wins the game against Colorado on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Tommy Henry of Arizona vs. Noah Davis of Colorado.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 29 12:13pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 959
Published Apr 29 12:13pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rays To Win
-130
Won: 12-3
Rays at White Sox
Sat Apr 29 • 7:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Tampa Bay wins the game against the Chicago White Sox on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Calvin Faucher opening for Tampa Bay followed by Yonny Chirinos vs. Lance Lynn of Chicago.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. Our similar games model has also shown a ROI of close to 10% when picking teams using an opener.
Pick published: Apr 29 12:13pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 973
Published Apr 27 12:25pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rangers To Win
+148
Lost: 2-4
Yankees at Rangers
Thu Apr 27 • 8:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Texas wins the game against the New York Yankees on Thursday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Thursday by our Similar Games Model.
The pitching matchup is Andrew Heaney of Texas vs. Gerrit Cole of New York.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 27 12:25pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 970
Published Apr 26 3:58pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Cubs To Win
-108
Lost: 3-5
Padres at Cubs
Wed Apr 26 • 7:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Chicago Cubs win the game against San Diego on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
This is also a playable pick by our Decision Tree and Power Ratings models.
The starting pitcher matchup is Drew Smyly for the Cubs and Michael Wacha for San Diego.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 26 3:58pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 908
Published Apr 25 3:49pm ET
MLBMoneyline
White Sox To Win
+175
Lost: 0-7
White Sox at Blue Jays
Tue Apr 25 • 7:07pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Chicago White Sox wins the game against Toronto on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
This is also a playable pick by our Decision Tree and Power Ratings models.
The starting pitcher matchup is Mike Clevinger for the White Sox and Jose Berrios for Toronto.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 25 3:49pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 965
Published Apr 24 1:21pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Diamondbacks To Win
-140
Won: 5-4
Royals at Diamondbacks
Mon Apr 24 • 9:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Arizona wins the game against Kansas City on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 24 1:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.
Rot# 922
Published Apr 24 1:21pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Reds To Win
+100
Won: 7-6
Rangers at Reds
Mon Apr 24 • 6:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Cincinnati wins the game against Texas on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 24 1:21pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 918
Published Apr 23 12:40pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Diamondbacks To Win
+130
Lost: 5-7
Padres at Diamondbacks
Sun Apr 23 • 4:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Arizona wins the game against San Diego on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 23 12:40pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 958
Published Apr 23 12:39pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Cubs To Win
+125
Lost: 3-7
Dodgers at Cubs
Sun Apr 23 • 2:20pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Chicago Cubs win the game against the LA Dodgers on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 23 12:39pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 956
Published Apr 22 11:23am ET
MLBMoneyline
Diamondbacks To Win
+135
Lost: 3-5
Padres at Diamondbacks
Sat Apr 22 • 8:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Arizona wins the game against San Diego on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 22 11:23am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 910
Published Apr 22 11:23am ET
MLBMoneyline
Cubs To Win
+115
Lost: 4-9
Dodgers at Cubs
Sat Apr 22 • 2:20pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Chicago Cubs win the game against the LA Dodgers on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 22 11:23am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 902
Published Apr 21 11:41am ET
MLBMoneyline
Royals To Win
+245
Lost: 0-2
Royals at Angels
Fri Apr 21 • 9:38pm ET
More info
How it wins:Kansas City wins the game against the LA Angels on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 21 11:41am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 969
Published Apr 21 11:41am ET
MLBMoneyline
Mariners To Win
-130
Won: 5-2
Cardinals at Mariners
Fri Apr 21 • 10:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Seattle wins the game against St. Louis on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 21 11:41am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 980
Published Apr 21 11:41am ET
MLBMoneyline
Braves To Win
-115
Lost: 4-6
Astros at Braves
Fri Apr 21 • 7:20pm ET
More info
How it wins:Atlanta wins the game against Houston on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 21 11:41am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 974
Published Apr 21 11:41am ET
MLBMoneyline
Yankees To Win
-130
Lost: 1-6
Blue Jays at Yankees
Fri Apr 21 • 7:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:New York Yankees win the game against Toronto on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 21 11:41am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 964
Published Apr 21 11:41am ET
MLBMoneyline
Rockies To Win
+270
Lost: 3-4
Rockies at Phillies
Fri Apr 21 • 7:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Colorado wins the game against Philadelphia on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top-rated play for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 21 11:41am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 955
Published Apr 19 1:13pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Astros To Win
+100
Won: 8-1
Blue Jays at Astros
Wed Apr 19 • 8:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Houston wins the game against Toronto on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 19 1:13pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 970
Published Apr 19 1:13pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Nationals To Win
+125
Lost: 0-4
Orioles at Nationals
Wed Apr 19 • 7:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Washington wins the game against Baltimore on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 19 1:13pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 980
Published Apr 19 1:13pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Pirates To Win
-124
Won: 14-3
Pirates at Rockies
Wed Apr 19 • 3:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Pittsburgh wins the game against Colorado on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 19 1:13pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 955
Published Apr 18 12:16pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Nationals To Win
+126
Lost: 0-1
Orioles at Nationals
Tue Apr 18 • 7:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Washington wins the game against Baltimore on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 18 12:16pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 924
Published Apr 18 12:16pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rays To Win
-130
Won: 10-0
Rays at Reds
Tue Apr 18 • 6:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Tampa Bay wins the game against Cincinnati on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 18 12:16pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.
Rot# 921
Published Apr 17 10:32am ET
MLBMoneyline
Padres To Win
+128
Lost: 0-2
Braves at Padres
Mon Apr 17 • 9:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:San Diego wins the game against Atlanta on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 17 10:32am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 958
Published Apr 16 9:16am ET
MLBMoneyline
Reds To Win
+165
Lost: 3-14
Phillies at Reds
Sun Apr 16 • 1:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Cincinnati wins the game against Philadelphia on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as our top play for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 16 9:16am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 904
Published Apr 16 9:16am ET
MLBMoneyline
Nationals To Win
+205
Won: 7-6
Guardians at Nationals
Sun Apr 16 • 1:35pm ET
More info
How it wins:Washington wins the game against Cleveland on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 16 9:16am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 924
Published Apr 15 8:10am ET
MLBMoneyline
Red Sox To Win
+100
Won: 9-7
Angels at Red Sox
Sat Apr 15 • 4:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Boston wins the game against the LA Angels on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 15 8:10am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 968
Published Apr 14 11:27am ET
MLBMoneyline
Rangers To Win
+144
Won: 6-2
Rangers at Astros
Fri Apr 14 • 8:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Texas wins the game against Houston on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 14 11:27am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 919
Published Apr 14 11:27am ET
MLBMoneyline
Giants To Win
-145
Lost: 5-7
Giants at Tigers
Fri Apr 14 • 6:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:San Francisco wins the game against Detroit on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as our top play for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 14 11:27am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 921
Published Apr 14 11:27am ET
MLBMoneyline
Nationals To Win
+135
Lost: 3-4
Guardians at Nationals
Fri Apr 14 • 7:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Washington wins the game against Cleveland on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 14 11:27am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 924
Published Apr 12 1:20pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rangers To Win
-165
Lost: 1-10
Royals at Rangers
Wed Apr 12 • 8:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Texas wins the game against Kansas City on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 12 1:20pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.
Rot# 924
Published Apr 12 1:21pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Orioles To Win
-180
Lost: 4-8
Athletics at Orioles
Wed Apr 12 • 6:35pm ET
More info
How it wins:Baltimore wins the game against Oakland on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 12 1:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 918
Published Apr 12 1:20pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rays To Win
-125
Won: 9-7
Red Sox at Rays
Wed Apr 12 • 6:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Tampa Bay wins the game against Boston on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 12 1:20pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 920
Published Apr 12 1:20pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rockies To Win
+150
Lost: 4-7
Cardinals at Rockies
Wed Apr 12 • 3:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Colorado beats St. Louis on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as our top play for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 12 1:20pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 904
Published Apr 11 12:55pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Nationals To Win
+260
Lost: 0-2
Nationals at Angels
Tue Apr 11 • 9:38pm ET
More info
How it wins:Washington wins the game against the LA Angels on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 11 12:55pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 979
Published Apr 11 12:55pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Cubs To Win
-118
Won: 14-9
Mariners at Cubs
Tue Apr 11 • 7:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Chicago Cubs beat Seattle on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 11 12:55pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 978
Published Apr 11 12:55pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rockies To Win
+155
Lost: 6-9
Cardinals at Rockies
Tue Apr 11 • 8:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Colorado wins the game against St. Louis on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top rated play for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 11 12:55pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 958
Published Apr 11 12:55pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Reds To Win
+200
Lost: 6-7
Reds at Braves
Tue Apr 11 • 7:20pm ET
More info
How it wins:Cincinnati wins the game against Atlanta on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 11 12:55pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 955
Published Apr 10 12:31pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Cubs To Win
+130
Won: 3-2
Mariners at Cubs
Mon Apr 10 • 7:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Chicago Cubs beat Seattle on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 10 12:31pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.
Rot# 926
Published Apr 10 12:30pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Twins To Win
-102
Lost: 3-4
White Sox at Twins
Mon Apr 10 • 2:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Minnesota beats Chicago on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 10 12:30pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 914
Published Apr 8 8:37am ET
MLBMoneyline
Pirates To Win
+110
Lost: 5-11
White Sox at Pirates
Sat Apr 8 • 6:35pm ET
More info
How it wins:Pittsburgh wins the game against the Chicago White Sox on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 8 8:37am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel, PointsBet.
Rot# 930
Published Apr 8 8:37am ET
MLBMoneyline
Athletics To Win
+235
Lost: 0-11
Athletics at Rays
Sat Apr 8 • 4:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Oakland wins the game against Tampa Bay on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as the second-highest play by our Similar Games Model.
It is also a top-rated play by our Decision Tree model for both the moneyline and run line.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 8 8:37am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 917
Published Apr 7 12:04pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rockies To Win
-120
Lost: 5-10
Nationals at Rockies
Fri Apr 7 • 8:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Colorado wins the game against Washington on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top-rated Similar Games Model play for today in MLB.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 7 12:04pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, PointsBet.
Rot# 956
Published Apr 7 12:07pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Athletics To Win
+225
Lost: 5-9
Athletics at Rays
Fri Apr 7 • 6:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:Oakland wins the game against Tampa Bay on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our second-highest-rated Similar Games Model play for today in MLB.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 7 12:07pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 961
Published Apr 5 10:58am ET
MLBMoneyline
Red Sox To Win
-145
Lost: 1-4
Pirates at Red Sox
Wed Apr 5 • 1:35pm ET
More info
How it wins:Boston wins the game against Pittsburgh on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and our top-rated Similar Games Model play for today in MLB.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 5 10:58am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 974
Published Apr 4 11:32am ET
MLBMoneyline
Rockies To Win
+220
Lost: 2-5
Rockies at Dodgers
Tue Apr 4 • 10:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Colorado wins the game against the LA Dodgers on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 4 11:32am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, PointsBet.
Rot# 909
Published Apr 4 11:32am ET
MLBMoneyline
Rays To Win
-170
Won: 10-6
Rays at Nationals
Tue Apr 4 • 7:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:Tampa Bay wins the game against Washington on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 4 11:32am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, PointsBet.
Rot# 925
Published Apr 4 11:33am ET
MLBMoneyline
Diamondbacks To Win
+128
Won: 8-6
Diamondbacks at Padres
Tue Apr 4 • 4:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Arizona wins the game against San Diego on Tuesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 4 11:33am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 901
Published Apr 3 4:11pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Tigers To Win
+195
Won: 7-6
Tigers at Astros
Mon Apr 3 • 8:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Detroit wins the game against Houston on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 3 4:11pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 965
Published Apr 3 4:11pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Reds To Win
+105
Won: 7-6
Cubs at Reds
Mon Apr 3 • 6:40pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Reds win the game against the Cubs on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 3 4:11pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 954
Published Apr 3 12:56pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Brewers To Win
-112
Won: 10-0
Mets at Brewers
Mon Apr 3 • 2:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:Milwaukee wins the game over the Mets on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play by our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Apr 3 12:56pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 952
Published Mar 31 5:32pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Mariners To Win
-164
Lost: 4-9
Guardians at Mariners
Fri Mar 31 • 10:10pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Seattle Mariners win against the Cleveland Guardians on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable pick according to our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Mar 31 5:32pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 910
Published Mar 29 6:53pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Rangers To Win
-130
Won: 11-7
Phillies at Rangers
Thu Mar 30 • 4:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Texas Rangers win against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable pick according to our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Mar 29 6:53pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 988
Published Mar 29 6:44pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Cubs To Win
+126
Won: 4-0
Brewers at Cubs
Thu Mar 30 • 2:20pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Chicago Cubs beat the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable pick according to our Similar Games Model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Mar 29 6:44pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 964
Published Mar 29 6:43pm ET
MLBMoneyline
Giants To Win
+160
Lost: 0-5
Giants at Yankees
Thu Mar 30 • 1:05pm ET
More info
How it wins:The San Francisco Giants beat the New York Yankees on Thursday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline pick according to our Similar Games model.
Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.
Pick published: Mar 29 6:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, PointsBet.
Rot# 985
Published Mar 20 6:11pm ET
NCAABMoneyline
Florida Atlantic To Win
+200
Won: 62-55
Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee
Thu Mar 23 • 9:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Florida Atlantic wins the Sweet 16 game with Tennessee on Thursday.
Staff notes:
This is a play based on our WOWY analysis, tournament power ratings and projections, and matchup factors.
We have Florida Atlantic projected with a 40.2% chance of winning the matchup with Tennessee.
Tennessee has performed worse against top offensive efficiency teams, going 10-8 SU and 5-13 ATS against teams ranked in the top 100 in KenPom's efficiency ratings, but 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS against all other opponents. Florida Atlantic is 30th in offensive efficiency.
Tennessee has also performed relatively worse against top defensive rebounding teams, going 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS (the one cover being against Duke). Florida Atlantic is 43rd in that category, the best defensive rebound ranking of any team Tennessee has faced (just ahead of Colorado and Kentucky, teams they went 0-3 SU against as favorites.)
The most similar offensive team to FAU is Missouri, in terms of overall offensive efficiency, pace, turnover rate, and volume of three point attempts, and Missouri scored 79 and 86 points in two wins against Tennessee as an outright dog.
Pick published: Mar 20 6:11pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.
Rot# 635
Published Mar 23 10:30am ET
NCAABMoneyline
Connecticut To Win
-192
Won: 88-65
Arkansas vs. Connecticut
Thu Mar 23 • 7:15pm ET
More info
How it wins:Connecticut wins the Sweet 16 matchup with Arkansas on Thursday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model spread (-4.5) and moneyline pick for Thursday in the Sweet 16.
Some model factors include Arkansas' high percentage of points from two-point shots and low three-point rate, against a team that rates highly in field goal percentage defense and blocks, Connecticut's opponents hitting a higher rate (37%) of threes in recent games, and Connecticut's high offensive efficiency in the last seven games.
We also like this play based on lineup analysis, as Connecticut's average game rating is about 3 points higher when using a rotation more similar to what they have used in the two tournament games so far, with heavy minutes for Andre Jackson, and more minutes for Nahiem Alleyne and Joey Calcaterra, and fewer for Hassan Diarra.
We do have a futures pick on Connecticut from December to make Final Four (+300) and current price is about +185, but we also like this play independent from having that future in play based on matchup.
Pick published: Mar 23 10:30am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 640
Published Mar 22 9:50am ET
NCAABMoneyline
Charlotte To Win
-210
Won: 71-68
Charlotte vs. Eastern Kentucky
Wed Mar 22 • 5:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Charlotte wins the game in the CBI Final on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model moneyline pick (as well as spread pick) for Wednesday in the CBI Final.
Eastern Kentucky has reached the final by winning three straight overtime games, including a 2OT game last night over Southern Utah.
Model factors that favor Charlotte include their high offensive efficiency for the season, their advantage on the defensive boards, and Charlotte's low opponent assist-to-turnover ratio.
Eastern Kentucky has also hit 40% of threes over the three OT wins, a regression candidate (32% for full season).
Pick published: Mar 22 9:50am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.
Rot# 630
Published Mar 1 10:57am ET
NCAABMoneyline
Stephen F. Austin To Win
-118
Lost: 59-64
Sam Houston St. at Stephen F. Austin
Wed Mar 1 • 7:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:Stephen F. Austin wins the game on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model moneyline and spread pick (SFA -1) for Wednesday in CBB.
It's also a play based on team trends and roster analysis.
Sam Houston State's power rating is inflated by early November results and games against non-Division 1 schools.
Their "best" performance since November also came against a Utah Tech team playing without its starting point guard.
Stephen F. Austin, meanwhile, has been better since November. Guard Latrell Joss missed games with injury in November, and A.J. Cajuste wasn't in the starting lineup yet. In games with Cajuste at point guard and Joss starting at shooting guard, has a +4.8 power rating, compared to +2.2 in all other games.
Pick published: Mar 1 10:57am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 688
Published Feb 22 2:26pm ET
NCAABMoneyline
Morehead St. To Win
-225
Won: 69-63
Morehead St. at Eastern Illinois
Wed Feb 22 • 8:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:Morehead State wins the game on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is our top-rated moneyline play for Wednesday in CBB.
So far this year, moneyline plays rated as highly as this one are +5.9 units across 43 games.
Model factors impacting this are Morehead State's excellent two-point shooting percentage defense in recent games coupled with limiting how many three pointers the opponents take.
Eastern Illinois is one of the worst outside shooting teams in the country, in terms of low volume and percentage rate. Morehead State held them to 33% shooting on two-point attempts in their previous matchup.
Pick published: Feb 22 2:26pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 719
Published Feb 8 11:11am ET
NCAABMoneyline
Utah St. To Win
-130
Lost: 61-63
San Diego St. at Utah St.
Wed Feb 8 • 10:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Utah State wins the game on Wednesday night.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model moneyline and spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
The spreads available differ in both the spread and payout odds, in the -1.5 to -2.5 range,
Utah State lost by 10 to San Diego State on the road two weeks ago, in a game where the difference was San Diego State's +11 advantage in free throws made.
Utah State actually shot 65% from two, but were only 11-of-33 from three, while San Diego State hit 55% from three (their high all season) but only 44% from two.
Some model factors here include Utah State's high offensive efficiency in the recent three-game win streak (and all season), and their usually high rate of getting to the line (where the previous San Diego State matchup was an outlier).
Pick published: Feb 8 11:11am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.
Rot# 742
Published Jan 7 11:29am ET
NCAABMoneyline
Oklahoma St. To Win
+145
Lost: 46-56
Texas at Oklahoma St.
Sat Jan 7 • 12:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Oklahoma State wins the game on Saturday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline pick according to our models.
Further, Texas just fired head coach Chris Beard after he was suspended a month ago. Texas' average rating with Beard before suspension was +21.4, and since the suspension is +12.0, a nine-point dropoff in average performance.
Texas' defensive numbers have been worse since Beard's suspension, while they are also playing the best defensive team they have faced this year by defensive efficiency metrics.
Pick published: Jan 7 11:29am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.
Rot# 614
Published Dec 30 7:56am ET
NCAABMoneyline
New Orleans To Win
-115
Lost: 96-101
New Orleans at Houston Christian
Fri Dec 30 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:New Orleans wins the game on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is our highest-rated playable moneyline pick in college basketball, and so far this year, games with this rated edge are +3.5 units (21 games).
New Orleans and Houston Christian are the two worst teams in the country at defending 2-point shots, but Houston Christian (68%) is by far worst (compared to 62% for New Orleans) and that poor interior defense is one factor in this game.
New Orleans opponents have also shot 50% or more from three in two of the last three games, the two highest shooting performances against all year, in an area of positive regression potential.
New Orleans does not rely on a high volume of outside shots, and this will be by far the easiest opponent they have faced in terms of getting quality shots inside.
Pick published: Dec 30 7:56am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 306591
Published Feb 27 12:57pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Magic To Win
+150
Won: 101-93
Magic at Pelicans
Mon Feb 27 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Orlando wins the game on Monday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model moneyline pick for Sunday in the NBA.
So far this year, playable moneyline picks are +29.1 units across 222 games, and model moneyline picks on slight underdogs (up to +175) have been historically profitable.
Pick published: Feb 27 12:57pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 573
Published Feb 26 9:33am ET
NBAMoneyline
Clippers To Win
+120
Lost: 124-134
Clippers at Nuggets
Sun Feb 26 • 10:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Los Angeles Clippers win the game on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model moneyline pick for Sunday in the NBA.
So far this year, playable moneyline picks are +30.6 units across 219 games, and model moneyline picks on slight underdogs (up to +175) have been historically profitable.
Denver's Aaron Gordon missed Saturday's game, an 18-point road loss at Memphis, and is unlikely to play in the back-to-back.
Pick published: Feb 26 9:33am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 565
Published Feb 26 9:24am ET
NBAMoneyline
Suns To Win
+136
Lost: 101-104
Suns at Bucks
Sun Feb 26 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Phoenix wins the game on Sunday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model moneyline pick for Sunday in the NBA.
So far this year, playable moneyline picks are +30.6 units across 219 games, and model moneyline picks on slight underdogs (up to +175) have been historically profitable.
Kevin Durant is still out (and yet to make his debut for the Suns) while Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered a knee injury in Friday night's game and is day-to-day.
Pick published: Feb 26 9:24am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 549
Published Feb 24 11:40am ET
NBAMoneyline
Nets To Win
+110
Lost: 87-131
Nets at Bulls
Fri Feb 24 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Brooklyn wins the game on Friday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model moneyline pick for Friday in the NBA.
So far this year, playable moneyline picks are +30.3 units across 214 games, and model moneyline picks on slight underdogs (up to +175) have been historically profitable.
Pick published: Feb 24 11:40am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet.
Rot# 531
Published Nov 23 11:05am ET
NBAMoneyline
Mavericks To Win
+160
Lost: 112-125
Mavericks at Celtics
Wed Nov 23 • 7:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:Dallas wins the game against Boston.
Staff notes:
This is a top-rated model moneyline play in the NBA for Wednesday night.
We have historically shown profitiablity with moneyline picks on slight NBA underdogs over the last several years.
Jayson Tatum is questionable for tonight's game with a left ankle sprain as of the time we posted this pick (while Spencer Dinwiddie is questionable for Dallas).
Tatum being potentially out or limited with an ankle injury provides the potential for additional value at this line.
Other factors our model is picking up includes recent Mavericks' opponents having a low assist-to-turnover margin, Boston's recent opponents scoring a higher amount of points inside the arc, Boston's relatively lower rebound numbers, and Dallas' defensive efficiency in recent games.
Pick published: Nov 23 11:05am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 511
Published Nov 23 10:46am ET
NBAMoneyline
Nets To Win
+120
Won: 112-98
Nets at Raptors
Wed Nov 23 • 7:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:Brooklyn wins the game against Toronto.
Staff notes:
This is our top-rated model moneyline play for Wednesday in the NBA.
We have historically shown profitiablity with moneyline picks on slight NBA underdogs over the last several years.
Some of the factors that are favoring Brooklyn in this matchup include Toronto's low assist-to-turnover margin in the last seven games, and the fact that Toronto's last three opponent's have underperformed from three-point range (33%).
Brooklyn is also playing better interior defense in recent games, as opponents have shot only 50% on unblocked two-point attempts, and they also lead opponents in blocks, 24 to 9, over the last three contests.
Pick published: Nov 23 10:46am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, PointsBet.
Rot# 507
Published Nov 16 10:59am ET
NBAMoneyline
Bulls To Win
+130
Lost: 110-124
Bulls at Pelicans
Wed Nov 16 • 8:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Chicago wins the game on Wednesday.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline pick for the NBA tonight.
Zion Williamson is questionable for tonight, after missing last night's game with a foot contusion, and being questionable for that one until ruled out as well.
Chicago lost last week to New Orleans at home in a close 4-point game where they had the lead going into the fourth quarter.
One regression factor that our models are picking up is that the Bulls' opponents have had a high Free Throw to Field Goal Attemnpt ratio in the last three games, including the Pelicans having 18 more attempts than the Bulls in their recent matchup.
Pick published: Nov 16 10:59am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.
Rot# 567
Published Nov 9 2:45pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Hornets To Win
+140
Lost: 95-105
Trail Blazers at Hornets
Wed Nov 9 • 7:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Charlotte Hornets win the game against Portland.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline pick. Our NBA moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
Almost 15% of Portland's points this season have come on fastbreaks, the fifth most in the league. However, the Hornets have allowed the fewest fastbreak points in the league this season, and have held opponents to the fewest points per fastbreak.
This is the 4th game of a 6-game road trip for Portland. Charlotte is playing their third home game in a row.
Pick published: Nov 9 2:45pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.
Rot# 534
Published Nov 7 1:15pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Clippers To Win
+160
Won: 119-117
Cavaliers at Clippers
Mon Nov 7 • 10:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Los Angeles Clippers win the game against Cleveland.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline pick. Our NBA moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
Recent Cavs games have featured a relatively high number of turnovers on both sides, and a high number of fastbreak points for Cleveland opponents. A sloppy game may favor the underdog.
Pick published: Nov 7 1:15pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 530
Published Oct 31 8:51am ET
NBAMoneyline
Hawks To Win
+155
Lost: 109-139
Hawks at Raptors
Mon Oct 31 • 7:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:Atlanta wins the game on October 31.
Staff notes:
This is one of our playable moneyline picks on NBA underdogs between +110 and +175.
Some of the factors driving our model pick including the Raptors' opponents having a high assist rate on made field goals, and Atlanta's opponents having a poor assist-to-turnover margin.
The Raptors recent performance in the second quarter, and overall through three quarters, has been below average, and reflective that the depth for the team has not been productive so far.
Pick published: Oct 31 8:51am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 559
Published Oct 30 12:11pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Lakers To Win
+140
Won: 121-110
Nuggets at Lakers
Sun Oct 30 • 9:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Los Angeles Lakers win the game against Denver.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline pick. Our NBA moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
This is essentially a play based on poor early-season starts skewing perception of teams. Almost all teams go through slumps, but when they come at the start of the season, the public and market may overreact a bit.
Over the past decade, in October, home underdogs of 3-4 points coming off a loss are 11-4-1 ATS. That's a small sample, but it's not cherry-picked. We didn't play around with endpoints to improve the record, and simply went with the first definition we thought of to try to find similar past games in our NBA custom trends tool.
We are officially making this a pick at +140 because it's widely available. If you have a Caesars/William Hill account, it's available at +143 currently there.
Pick published: Oct 30 12:11pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.
Rot# 552
Published Oct 27 12:17pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Nets To Win
+130
Lost: 125-129
Mavericks at Nets
Thu Oct 27 • 7:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Brooklyn Nets win the game against Dallas.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline pick. Our moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
One factor our models are picking up on is the high opponent three-point percentage against Brooklyn so far (40%) which can make an outsized impact on game results but is an area for regression potential.
In addition, Brooklyn's foul rate according to a few different measures has been unsustainably high. That includes both personal fouls and technical fouls. Over the long run they'll get a friendlier whistle.
Conversely, Dallas has drawn an abnormally high number of fouls on offense, and is likely to see regression in this area.
Pick published: Oct 27 12:17pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings.
Rot# 560
Published Oct 26 11:29am ET
NBAMoneyline
Nets To Win
+140
Lost: 99-110
Nets at Bucks
Wed Oct 26 • 7:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Brooklyn Nets win the game against Milwaukee.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline pick. Our moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs (+110 to +175) have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
The Bucks are off to a 2-0 start, while Brooklyn has started 1-2 with two double-digit losses.
One factor our models are likely picking up is the high opponent three-point percentage against Brooklyn so far (44%) which can make an outsized impact on game results but is an area for regression potential.
Another factor is Milwaukee's relatively poor point differential in the second quarter in recent games, which can be indicative of bench depth if a star is more likley to sit for a bigger part of that quarter.
In this case, Milwaukee is still without Khris Middleton to start the year, and have a massive split in the +/- with and without Giannis Antetokounmpo playing. While they have overcome it so far, the Bucks' depth has not played well and they have been significantly outscored with Giannis out of the game.
Pick published: Oct 26 11:29am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 545
Published Oct 24 1:15pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Raptors To Win
+140
Won: 98-90
Raptors at Heat
Mon Oct 24 • 7:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Toronto Raptors win the game against Miami on November 24th.
Our moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs (+110 to +175) have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
This is a rematch of a game two days ago at the same location. The Heat won that game by three points, with their main edge coming in shot making (higher 2PFG%, 3PFG%, and FT%) and the Raptors' main edge coming in ball handling (lower non-steal TO% and steal TO%). Miami's advantage in turnovers is less reliant on variance than Miami's shotmaking advantage.
For the season, Toronto has been slightly worse than Miami in some fields that are regression candidates, like opponent 3PFG% and opponent FT%.
Toronto has turned the ball over via an opponent steal at the lowest rate in the league so far. They also led the NBA in this category last season, so it's likely not a fluke. Meanwhile, Miami's defense has the second fewest steals per game.
Pick published: Oct 24 1:15pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings, PointsBet.
Rot# 519
Published Oct 21 2:24pm ET
NBAMoneyline
Raptors To Win
+126
Lost: 105-109
Raptors at Nets
Fri Oct 21 • 7:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Toronto Raptors win the game against Brooklyn on October 21st.
Our moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs (+110 to +175) have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
Brooklyn is coming off a 22-point home loss to New Orleans in the season opener, while Toronto won against Cleveland in their first game.
Some of the factors that might contribute to value against Brooklyn in this game include the Nets' extremely poor rebounding rate in the opener, and the high volume of assisted baskets they surrendered (31 on 50 made field goals).
Pick published: Oct 21 2:24pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 539
Published Jan 8 10:50am ET
NFLMoneyline
Browns To Win
+128
Lost: 14-28
Browns at Steelers
Sun Jan 8 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Cleveland Browns win the game in Week 18.
Staff notes:
This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 18.
The Steelers are playing for a wild card spot, though they still need help. The Browns, meanwhile, get to try to spoil their rival's chances and end Steelers' head coach Mike Tomlin's streak of never having a losing season.
Pittsburgh has won five of its last six games, but they have all been tight games that came down to the wire. We will play on some of the pressure and other game results having an impact here, as well as a Browns' team that has underperformed but still may be motivated to ruin Pittsburgh's season.
Pittsburgh's mental approach could also be impacted by in-game updates from the results in the games that impact them (New England and Miami) if the results aren't going their way in those games late.
Pick published: Jan 8 10:50am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 461
Published Nov 28 1:17pm ET
NCAAFMoneyline
Ohio To Win
+105
Lost: 7-17
Toledo vs. Ohio
Sat Dec 3 • 12:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Ohio wins the MAC title game against Toledo.
Staff notes:
This is a playable spread and moneyline pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, though we prefer to just take the moneyline here since the spread is only 1.5 points.
These are two teams going in opposite directions, as Ohio is a perfect 8-0 ATS in MAC play after a slow start to the season, while Toledo has closed by going 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS to close conference play.
Toledo's star QB DeQuan Finn's shoulder injury is a big part of that slide, as he missed two games with the injury, and tried to come back and play last week but had his worst performance all year, going 5-for-11 for only 35 yards and two interceptions in the loss to Western Michigan.
Pick published: Nov 28 1:17pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.
Rot# 310
Published Nov 21 4:41pm ET
NCAAFMoneyline
Louisville To Win
+145
Lost: 13-26
Louisville at Kentucky
Sat Nov 26 • 3:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Louisville wins the game against Kentucky.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline model pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, and is playable across all our models (predictive rating, Decision Tree, and similar games).
Though Kentucky was the higher rated team entering the season, Louisville is now rated higher (No. 21, +12.1) than Kentucky (No. 41, +7.1) in our power ratings.
Louisville has won and covered 5 of the last 6 games, winning all 5 by at least 14 points.
Kentucky is 2-5 over the last 7 games, including 0-2 as a betting favorite.
The line may be influenced by recent series history in the Governor's Cup, as Kentucky has won the last three games in blowouts and Louisville coach Scott Satterfield is 0-3 against Mark Stoops.
Pick published: Nov 21 4:41pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, PointsBet.
Rot# 159
Published Nov 10 11:27am ET
NCAAFMoneyline
Georgia Tech To Win
-120
Lost: 14-35
Miami at Georgia Tech
Sat Nov 12 • 3:30pm ET
More info
How it wins:Georgia Tech wins the game in Week 11.
Staff notes:
This is not a model pick, but a pick based on injury news and trends.
Miami fell to 1-8 ATS with 8 straight losses against the spread, with a 45-3 loss to Florida State last week.
The Hurricanes have major issues on offense and at quarterback, and starter Tyler Van Dyke tried to return from a shoulder injury that kept him out of the previous game, but re-injured it early in the second quarter against Florida State and did not return.
The two other QBs for Miami, Jake Garcia and Jacurri Brown, have combined to average only 6.9 yards per attempt and throw 2 TDs to 5 INTs.
Georgia Tech fired head coach Geoff Collins after four games, and has gone 3-2 SU and ATS since then.
The Yellowjackets gave freshman QB Zach Pyron his first career start last week against Virginia Tech, and he responded with over 250 yards passing, and the team put up its highest yard total (463) of the season in the come-from-behind win on the road.
Most books have this as GT -1.5, which is also playable if you cannot get the pick'em/ML at this payout.
Pick published: Nov 10 11:27am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 154
Published Nov 3 3:26pm ET
NCAAFMoneyline
Missouri To Win
+100
Lost: 17-21
Kentucky at Missouri
Sat Nov 5 • 12:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Missouri wins the game in Week 10.
Staff notes:
This is just below playable as a model pick, though our model leans to Missouri in this game. It's a Staff Pick based on recent performance and trends.
When our public pool pick data shows a 30% or more difference between win odds and pick popularity, the unpopular side is 7-2 ATS so far this year. Only 20% of the public is taking Missouri to win this game while our models have them as the slight favorite to win outright.
This line has also moved from -2.5 for Kentucky at opening, to where it is now fluctuating around a pick'em.
Kentucky QB Will Levis is considered a NFL prospect, but is playing through ankle and shoulder injuries, and is coming off a terrible performance at Tennessee where he threw for under 100 yards and three interceptions, and the Kentucky line has really struggled to protect him.
Kentucky started 3-0 ATS, but is 2-3 since, with all three losses coming by at least two touchdowns from the spread.
Missouri has covered 4 of the last 5 after a slow start, and is coming off a 13-point road win at South Carolina where they held the Gamecocks to 203 total yards.
Pick published: Nov 3 3:26pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 362
Published Oct 18 2:43pm ET
NFLMoneyline
Colts To Win
+135
Lost: 10-19
Colts at Titans
Sun Oct 23 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Indianapolis wins the game in Week 7.
Staff notes:
This is a playable moneyline pick according to our models.
Adding in the results since that article was written, teams like the Titans who are going for the sweep after winning game 1 on the road as a small dog (4 or less) and are favored by 4 or less in the rematch are only 16-21 SU and 14-23 ATS since 2008.
In addition, the Colts offense is getting healthy and will likely have RB Jonathan Taylor back, a week after they scored 34 points and put up 29 first downs against the Jaguars.
Pick published: Oct 18 2:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.
Rot# 455
Published Oct 12 5:16pm ET
NFLMoneyline
Saints To Win
+110
Lost: 26-30
Bengals at Saints
Sun Oct 16 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:New Orleans wins in Week 6.
Staff notes:
UPDATE: Most of the injury and player availability news after we made this pick has been negative for the Saints. We no longer recommend this pick, though it will still count in our historical win-loss records.
This is a playable money line pick and with the spread fluctuating between 1.5 and 2 points we'll prefer the moneyline to paying juice on the points.
The Saints are a little undervalued right now on defense, just looking at their points allowed. They are about average in yards allowed per game, but rank worse (25th) in points allowed at 25.6 per game.
Interestingly, the Saints' third-down defense and red-zone defense have been really good. The culprit has been a handful of big plays, as half of the 12 touchdowns scored against New Orleans have been on plays of 40 yards or longer. That includes a couple of defensive scores, but also a big 69-yard run last week by Seattle's Kenneth Walker.
Saints QB Jameis Winston returned to practice on Wednesday after two weeks off, but the big variable here is the New Orleans wide receiver situation, but we like grabbing some potential moneyline value before that news is finalized.
Cincinnati RB Joe Mixon is averaging only 3.1 yards per carry, yet Cincinnati continues to be run-heavy on early downs despite that inefficiency.
Bengals WR Tee Higgins has battled injuries, and even though he was active last week on a limited snap count, he saw zero targets, and the offense isn't clicking right now.
Pick published: Oct 12 5:16pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, PointsBet.
Rot# 254
Published Oct 13 12:18pm ET
NCAAFMoneyline
Louisiana St. To Win
+120
Won: 45-35
Louisiana St. at Florida
Sat Oct 15 • 7:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:LSU wins the game in Week 7.
Staff notes:
This is one our top playable moneyline plays in CFB this week and also a playable spread pick (LSU +2.5) but we will play the moneyline with the spread under the 3 point number.
LSU is coming off a blowout loss at home to Tennessee, and our public data from game winner and spread pools show that Florida is a very popular pick, being selected to win 80% of the time.
Our power ratings have LSU as the better team despite last week's result, as we rank them No. 20 to No. 44 for Florida, and 5.3 points better on a neutral field.
Pick published: Oct 13 12:18pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.
Rot# 133
Published Oct 6 5:06pm ET
NFLMoneyline
Commanders To Win
+110
Lost: 17-21
Titans at Commanders
Sun Oct 9 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Washington wins the game in Week 5.
Staff notes:
This is right on the edge of playable according to our models.
This same pick was featured in our Week 5 Upset Picks article, where our picks are 8-4 SU so far this year through four weeks.
Since that was posted, the line has moved further in Washington's direction, but we still like this value.
Tennessee is 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed so far (7.7), better than only Miami (7.8) and Seattle (8.2). That's even more worrisome considering that the Titans have played only one team (Buffalo) in the upper third of the league in passing.
The Titans are one of the most popular picks according to our pool picks data, as the public is picking them heavily in game-winner (85%) and spread pools (77%), while we have seen line movment go against them.
Pick published: Oct 6 5:06pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, PointsBet.
Rot# 464
Published Sep 20 9:53am ET
NFLMoneyline
Texans To Win
+125
Lost: 20-23
Texans at Bears
Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Houston Texans win the game in Week 3.
Staff notes:
This is our highest rated value against the Moneyline, according to the Ensemble Forecast model.
While neither of these teams have been very good on offense so far in 2022, and are among the bottom teams in the NFL, the Bears' passing offense has been downright putrid.
Chicago QB Justin Fields has taken a sack on over 15% of his dropbacks, and the Bears have totaled 153 net passing yards in two games.
Given that the spread is under the 3 points currently, at 2.5, the better value is to just play the Texans to win outright in Texans' head coach Lovie Smith's return to Chicago, where he coached from 2004-2012.
Pick published: Sep 20 9:53am ET, available at that time at PointsBet, DraftKings.
Rot# 477
Published Sep 11 7:31am ET
NFLMoneyline
Vikings To Win
-104
Won: 23-7
Packers at Vikings
Sun Sep 11 • 4:25pm ET
More info
How it wins:The Vikings beat the Packers in Week 1.
News just came out in the middle of the night confirming that LT David Bakhtiari, RT Elgton Jenkins, and WR Allen Lazard will not be playing for Green Bay.
Pick published: Sep 11 7:31am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.
Rot# 476
Published Sep 8 4:30pm ET
NCAAFMoneyline
Iowa St. To Win
+150
Won: 10-7
Iowa St. at Iowa
Sat Sep 10 • 4:00pm ET
More info
How it wins:Iowa State beats Iowa in Week 2.
Staff notes:
Our Ensemble Forecast Model has Iowa State as one of the top playable moneyline games in college football this weekend.
Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has had historic success at Iowa State, but one thing he has yet to do is beat Iowa, going 0-6 so far.
Iowa is coming off an ugly 7-3 win over South Dakota State that included two safeties and a field goal. How ugly? Iowa QB Spencer Petras completed only 11 passes on 29 drop backs (including four sacks) and averaged 4.4 yards per pass attempt.
We'll take the team we have rated slightly higher on a neutral field in an upset at Iowa, and play against that terrible offensive start for Iowa.
Pick published: Sep 8 4:30pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.