College Basketball Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Elite Eight" tab, and then "Marquette to Make 2024 Tournament Elite Eight" - YES.
• Our projected odds for Marquette is 36.3% to make the Elite Eight, while the break-even for the +205 line is 32.8%.
• We think there is some variance upside here with Marquette, where the market is reduced on Marquette because of recent injuries, but if they can get through the first weekend, this team has the potential to be one of the top teams in the tournament. Based on our lineup review, this team is +19.0 when all five starters play, +14.8 when one is out and +7.0 (1 game) when two starters are out.
• We also think Tyler Kolek is ready to play after taking 2.5 weeks off with the oblique injury, as reports today were that he was looking like himself in practice.

Staff notes:

• This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Sweet 16" tab, and then "Houston to Make 2024 Tournament Sweet 16" - NO.
• Our projected odds for Houston is 69.5% to make and 30.5% to miss the Sweet 16, while the break-even for the +320 line is 24.4%.
• We believe there is some edge in this based on the recent quality of both Nebraska and Texas A&M, one of whom will be the second round opponent. Both teams are better than their overall season power rating based on the current lineups.
• Houston also has an X-factor forward J'Wan Roberts being limited in the Big 12 tournament by a knee bone bruise, something that could impact his performance. The team is also thin at the forward position after injuries to the bench, so Roberts not being 100% increases the risk of an upset.

Staff notes:

• This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Sweet 16" tab, and then "Alabama to Make 2024 Tournament Sweet 16" - NO.
• Our projected odds for Alabama is 42.9% to make and 57.1% to miss the Sweet 16, while the break-even for the -115 line is 53.5%.
• We have been fading Alabama recently because of their poor defensive performance over the last month. They have been injury-impacted with Latrell Wrightsell and Rylan Griffen missing games down the stretch, but it's not promising that they will turn it around to respectable defense.
• Since 2011, there have been 18 teams who were top 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, and were inside the top 20 in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offense rankings, and outside the top 70 in adjusted defense. Of those 18, 33% lost in Round 1, including several notable big upsets, and only 39% reached the Sweet 16.
• Alabama finished 3rd in Ken Pomeroy's offensive efficiency but 113th in defensive efficiency, and finished that poorly despite opponents hitting only 32% from three on the year.

Staff notes:

• This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Sweet 16" tab, and then "North Carolina to Make 2024 Tournament Sweet 16" - NO.
• Our projected odds for North Carolina is 59.2% to make and 40.8% to miss the Sweet 16, while the break-even for the +164 line is 37.9%.
• We like this prop based on the quality of the second round draw, where either Michigan State or Mississippi State rank as tougher than average teams out of the No. 8/9 area.
• North Carolina is also a below average No. 1 seed by overall strength. They rank 8th in our tournament rankings (and 9th at KenPom). No. 1 seeds who have been power rated outside the top 4 in our rankings entering the tournament have only averaged 2.2 wins going back to 2010, compared to 3.4 for all other No. 1 seeds.

Staff notes:

• Gonzaga has been playing much better since Ben Gregg was inserted in the lineup for Dusty Stromer, putting up a 20.0 Game Score (for perspective, a typical No. 1 seed will be around there or just above it for the season) in 8 of the last 14 games.
• Saint Mary's is injury-impacted, losing the Josh Jefferson for the season on February 10th. 
• For the same reasons we had Gonzaga as a Staff Pick to win at St. Mary's as an underdog in the season finale, we like Gonzaga here, and our estimates are 63% to win the WCC tournament.

Staff notes:

• Our projections in the American are 49% for Florida Atlantic versus 30% for Memphis to win the conference. 
• We have Florida Atlantic power-rated as the better team, while Memphis is ranked higher in the human polls, and is the betting market favorite slightly over FAU, so we like getting plus odds here on FAU.
• You can also read Ken Pomeroy's blog post on Memphis' ranking here, as further support on why we think we are getting a little value here based on public overrating Memphis.

Staff notes:

• Our projections give NC Central a 42% chance of winning the MEAC regular season title.
• Our review of the "With or Without You" scores for NC Central also shows some potential value on them being better than their overall rating. They had multiple games without key players, including starting point guard Fred Cleveland. But in games where the guard trio of Cleveland, Po'Boigh King, and Ja'Darius Harris all start and play significant minutes (including the most recent 6 games), their rating is +0.2, versus -7.1 in the other games, and -3.3 rating across all games.
• They also have a win in hand against conference co-favorite Norfolk State, who they just beat on January 8th.

Staff notes:

• The current projection for Alabama is a 40% to win the SEC regular season title, after starting conference play 4-0.
• Alabama is one of three SEC teams ranked inside our top 7 in the predictive power ratings, and is also rated No. 7 in Ken Pomeroy's ratings.
• This FanDuel line is off-market from some other books, where Alabama is +180 to win at Caesars and +210 at DraftKings.
• The SEC is a tough conference, and there's plenty of competition with Auburn and Tennessee at the top, but we would play this down to +235 (30% break-even odds)

Staff notes:

• Our automated projections have USC at 23.6% to win the Pac-12, making them the second-favorite behind Arizona.
• USC won their season opener last night in impressive fashion over Kansas State, 82-69, in a game where they went on an early 14-2 run and led by double digits throughout, holding Kansas State to 37% effective field goal percentage. 
• Freshman point guard Isaiah Collier, one of the top recruits in the nation, had an impressive debut, scoring 15 points in the first half, and backed up some of the hype about this incoming freshman class for USC. 
• USC now is inside our top 10 in power rating, and we see the Pac-12 as a two-horse race between USC and Arizona, with UCLA expected to take a step back with so many key losses, and see relative value on USC here, if the depth, size, and Collier at point guard all come together.

Staff notes:

• Our predictive power ratings have Tennessee as the No. 4 team in the nation entering the season.
• Our NCAA Tournament projections show an 18% chance for Tennessee to reach the Final Four, while the break-even rate at these odds is only 10%.
• Tennessee finished as a No. 3 seed in last year's NCAA Tournament, and was No. 8 in our final predictive ratings last year.
• The Volunteers return a lot of production complemented by a solid freshman class and should have a deep and talented squad.
• They were also one of the best defensive teams in the nation a year ago, and guard Zakai Zeigler, now a sophomore, is one of the best at getting steals in the nation.
• These current Final Four odds have them behind 12 other teams.
• We project Tennessee with a 23% chance of getting a No. 1 seed, and a 62% cumulative chance of entering the NCAA Tournament as between a No. 1 and No. 4 seed.

Staff notes:

• Based on our adjustments for Duke's recent form as well as No. 4 seed Tennessee being impacted by injury to point guard Zakai Ziegler, we are projecting Duke with a 49% chance of making the Sweet 16, showing value on this prop.

Staff notes:

• This prop is available at FanDuel under "March Madness" and "To Make Men's NCAA Tournament."
• Our automated projections have Wisconsin currently as one of the final teams in the field as an at-large after Tuesday's win over Michigan, with a 53% chance of getting into the field.
• Wisconsin was the 2nd team out at the start of the week in our most recent bracket predictions article, but would be also projected in the field there as well after winning, and losses by three of the teams right in front of them in the same tier (North Carolina, Mississippi State, New Mexico).
• The Badgers also went through a seven-game stretch in January where starters Tyler Wahl and Max Klesmit were hurt and missed time, and were about six points worse on average in those games, so the current lineup is a little better than the average power rating. 
• Wisconsin is currently 15-10 and projected to finish 17-13 in the regular season, and their resume if they hit that mark puts them right on the bubble. 
• Given that they are coming at + odds right now, we see value on Wisconsin as just being in the field if they hit their average projection, as they have faced a top 20 schedule and we project them to have five Quadrant 1 wins and 10 Quad 1+2 wins, which will compare favorably to other teams right on the bubble. 

Staff notes:

• Our automated projection for UAB is 29.7% to win Conference USA.
• However, after making some WOWY (With or Without You) adjustments for the stretch when UAB's star point guard Jordan "Jelly" Walker was nursing an ankle injury and then missed games earlier this year, they moved up. 
• With those adjustments, UAB is up to 35.3% and showing value at the current +210, as they rate similarly to conference favorite Florida Atlantic once you account for the injury impact from earlier in the year.

Staff notes:

• Our automated projections give TCU only a 10% chance of winning the conference tourney, but they have had numerous past injury impacts that make them a better candidate and undervalued by just looking at overall power ratings. 
• TCU's Mike Miles missed eight games with multiple injuries, including a knee injury in late January, and Damion Baugh started the year on suspension.
• In 19 games with Miles, Baugh, and Emmanuel Miller all starting and playing regular minutes, TCU's average rating is +19.8, compared to only +7.0 in other games where at least one of them was out.
• TCU beat their first opponent, Kansas State, by 23 at full strength, then lost to them by 21 in a game that Miles missed, and center Eddie Lampkin tried to come back and play through injury, and scored zero points and then sat out again the next game.
• After adjustments, we make TCU's chances 16.2% to win the Big 12 tourney.
• This is also an off-market line at BetMGM, as TCU is +550 at DK and +600 at FanDuel, so we are grabbing the extra value here on a longer shot play, but a team that can go on a run at its peak.

Staff notes:

• Our automated projections give Kentucky a 12.9% chance of winning the SEC Tournament, however, there are several factors that increase Kentucky's chances. 
• Kentucky had frequent lineup switches in the first half of the season, and largely had undersized Sahvir Wheeler at point guard. Since moving to a bigger lineup (and more consistent lineup) the Wildcats have been much better since early January. Their power rating over the last 15 games is more than 2.5 points better than the season average rating.
• Two other top contenders in the SEC have major question marks entering this tournament that increase the variance. Alabama has played four straight subpar games since the news broke about Brandon Miller, and will likely have a No. 1 seed locked up entering the tournament, which could impact motivation. Tennessee just lost their starting point guard.
• And finally, Kentucky has by far the best "quadrant" draw, having to get through either Vanderbilt, who just lost starting center Liam Robbins for the year, or the winner of LSU/Georgia, two of the lowest rated teams in the conference. Texas A&M, meanwhile, gets the winner of an Auburn/Arkansas showdown.

Staff notes:

• Our automated projections have Bradley at 30.7% to win the tournament, behind Drake, but our adjustments push this to a value and Bradley to the most likely winner.
• It's the same adjustment that led us to play Bradley as a futures value to win the regular season back in December, as star center Rienk Mast missed the first 6 games of the year. With him playing the Bradley power rating is +10.8 and without him it was 0.0. 
• Based on our adjustments for games with Mast playing, Bradley is at 35.2% to win the MVC tournament, an edge over the 33.3% break-even.

Staff notes:

• Our projections give Virginia a 47% chance of winning the ACC regular season title as of November 28, 2022.
• Our predictive power ratings are even lower than several other power ratings systems, so this isn't a case of us being well above market on rating a team.
• Just looking at the results so far to date, Virginia's power rating would put them as one of the top teams in Division 1, while Duke and North Carolina have both underperformed expectations. 
• Virginia currently ranks in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on Ken Pomeroy, and is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation.
• In terms of conference tiebreakers, Virginia plays North Carolina twice and hosts Duke in the only regular season meeting between the schools.

Staff notes:

• Our projections see value on Utah State in the Mountain West Conference, as we project them as the second-favorite in the conference, behind San Diego State, with a 21% chance of winning regular season title.
• Utah State slumped to an 8-10 conference record last year, as they battled lots of injuries and also had a poor close game record, but the program has finished 2nd, 2nd, and tied for 1st the previous three seasons in conference play.
• The FanDuel price is the best right now, but there are playable lines at DraftKings (+1100) and PointsBet (+1000) as well.

Staff notes:

• Our projections show value on this bet, as we project Dayton as the clear favorite in the Atlantic 10, with a 47% chance of finishing as the conference's top seed.
• Dayton finished one game back of Davidson for last year's conference title, and just missed out on a NCAA Tournament bid.
• Dayton was the youngest team in Division 1 a year ago, as the top 7 players in minutes consisted of 6 freshmen and a sophomore, and all return this season.

Staff notes:

• This number is off-market what is offered at some other books, and shows high value on North Texas, who we have as the most likely regular season champion, at 38%.
• North Texas won the Conference USA regular season title last year, and the tournament title the year before, and projects as one of the best mid-majors this season.

Staff notes:

• While Creighton is the betting market favorite in the Big East, we project Xavier as the highest value pick, with odds greater than Creighton to win the conference, at a 22.5% chance.
• Xavier fired Travis Steele after four seasons with no winning records in conference play, and former Xavier and Arizona coach Sean Miller took over before the NIT.
• The team surged to the NIT title, under Miller, after faltering down the stretch to just miss the NCAA Tournament.
• Miller has already had success at the school and led frequent top seeds at both Xavier and Arizona, and with Jay Wright retiring at Villanova, becomes one of the most accomplished coaches in the conference.

Staff notes:

• Our college basketball season predictions have the Big East as wide open, with four teams (Connecticut, Seton Hall, Xavier, Creighton) having between a 19% and 21% chance to win the title, and another (Villanova) at 9%.
• We currently have Seton Hall with about a 20% chance to win the Big East, which works out to a +400 break-even odds. This provides a lot of value compared to their current odds, as they can be found between +2000 and +3000 at many books.
• This high value on Seton Hall is partly due to our ratings and projections being high on Seton Hall compared to the market, but also from us being low on Creighton. We had Creighton ranked only No. 23 to start the season, while they were No. 9 in both human polls. Over their first three games, Creighton's raw performance (not regressed toward their preseason rating) ranks only 46th.
• This provides some value on multiple Big East teams, but Seton Hall has benefited the most due to their strong performance to start the season under new coach Shaheen Holloway, who led St. Peter's to the Elite Eight last season. Seton Hall has had the 12th-best average performance so far.

Staff notes:

• Our current projection is that Tennessee has a 59% chance to win the SEC title.
• Tennessee is No. 2 in our predictive power ratings, more than 4 points better than Arkansas, Alabama, and Kentucky as we enter conference play.
• One of Tennessee's best players, Josiah-Jordan James, has been battling knee soreness and missed 7 games so far (and been limited in others), so the team has been able to put up their dominant numbers largely without him.
• Tennessee is the No. 1 rated defensive team in the nation on KenPom, and are holding opponents to a 37 percent effective field goal rate, while also ranking 3rd nationally in turnover rate on defense.