College Football Staff Picks Results & History

Staff notes:

• Last year, we had a Staff Pick on Clemson to not make the playoff, but we will reverse that this year.
• Clemson rebounded late last year after switching to freshman Cade Klubnik at QB, and power rates as our No. 7 team entering the season (but narrowly behind No. 5 LSU). 
• In our win projections and simulations, we have Clemson with a 28.5% chance of going either 13-0 or 12-1 and finishing as ACC Champion, scenarios that should put them in strong CFB playoff consideration if they accomplish it.
• This is also a line where there is some disagreement in the markets, as Clemson is at +300 at both DraftKings and BetMGM, lines that take away most of this value. However, you could also play this at FanDuel, where the odds are +350 on Clemson.

Staff notes:

• This is a fun future available at BetMGM down under the college football futures in the Big 12 section of win totals and props.
• Texas and Oklahoma are leaving the conference after the year to join the SEC, and emotions will be high throughout the other schools who, let's just say, aren't fans of the two big programs.
• Oklahoma is a bit over valued, coming off a lengthy stretch of dominance under Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley, as they had their worst season in over 20 years last year with Brent Venables at head coach, and the market is baking in quite a bit of bounce-back based on the program history.
• Texas is the conference favorite, but has frequently been an overvalued team in conference predictions, and last won the Big 12 title in 2009.
• Based on our projections, we give "the field" a 43.5% chance of winning the conference title, compared to a break-even of 35.7% on this future.

Staff notes:

• This is an off-market line and this pick is specific to FanDuel, as several other books have alternate lines at 7 or 8 wins that show no value with the odds.
• We project Baylor with a 47% chance of going over this number and winning 8 or more games, while the break-even is 39.7%.
• Baylor entered last year as a preseason Top 10 team coming off a Sugar Bowl win over Ole Miss, but floundered to a 6-7 finish last year.
• We project a bounce back in head coach Dave Aranda's fourth season, as Baylor ranks 29th in our preseason rankings.

Staff notes:

• UNLV is coming off a 5-7 where they were 109th in our final predicitve ratings, and the team fired head coach Marcus Arroyo.
• Former Missouri head coach Barry Odom (most recently Arkansas defensive coordinator) is taking over, and we have UNLV ranked similarly this year at 106th in our preseason rankings.
• This staff pick is specific to the line value on this line, getting +138 on the Under at FanDuel. This pick is playable down to +130 if you find it at another book at the 5.5 win total.

Staff notes:

• This is a true long-shot pick, so you may want to reduce the unit size and make it a half-unit play.
• That said, there is value on this line offered at FanDuel, where Oklahoma State has the 20th-best odds to reach the playoffs.
• The Cowboys are ninth in our preseason rankings, and part of the same tier as several teams given much better odds to make the playoffs.
• While they did lose a couple of key defensive players who were drafted late in the NFL Draft, they aren't replacing elite talent on a team that ranked in the top 10 defensively a year ago.
• Our projections give Oklahoma State about an 4% chance of going 13-0. But we also project about an additional 9% chance of being a 12-1 Big 12 champ, a situation that would also have them very much in the mix for being selected to the playoffs.
• Oklahoma, the preseason conference favorite, is also going through a big transition with the departure of head coach Lincoln Riley and quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler, and there is value in longer-tail outcomes going against them rebounding to a national contender themselves.
• If you want to take a slightly less longer shot play, you can get Oklahoma State +550 to win the Big 12, a line where we also show some value.