Projections last updated: May 9, 2024 | Defense | Fantasy | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Player | Team | Bye | Int | FR | Sck | TD | PtsA | FPts |
1 | Baltimore Ravens | BAL | 14.3 | 10.1 | 50.1 | 2.8 | 20.6 | 133.3 | |
2 | San Francisco 49ers | SF | 13.9 | 10.9 | 45.7 | 2.9 | 20.5 | 130.7 | |
3 | Kansas City Chiefs | KC | 14.6 | 9.5 | 48.7 | 2.8 | 20.9 | 130.1 | |
4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | PIT | 14.5 | 10.3 | 46.1 | 2.9 | 20.8 | 129.9 | |
5 | New York Jets | NYJ | 13.3 | 10.5 | 49.0 | 2.8 | 21.1 | 129.0 | |
6 | Green Bay Packers | GB | 14.8 | 10.7 | 45.4 | 2.8 | 21.5 | 127.2 | |
7 | Buffalo Bills | BUF | 14.2 | 9.1 | 46.3 | 2.8 | 20.9 | 126.1 | |
7 | Houston Texans | HOU | 14.2 | 11.0 | 45.5 | 2.9 | 21.8 | 126.1 | |
9 | Los Angeles Chargers | LAC | 12.8 | 10.4 | 48.5 | 2.8 | 21.7 | 124.9 | |
10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB | 13.7 | 9.5 | 45.0 | 2.8 | 21.4 | 122.6 | |
11 | Dallas Cowboys | DAL | 14.3 | 9.8 | 45.0 | 2.8 | 22.0 | 122.0 | |
12 | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN | 13.0 | 9.7 | 45.2 | 2.7 | 21.4 | 121.2 | |
13 | Cleveland Browns | CLE | 13.1 | 8.9 | 45.3 | 2.7 | 21.1 | 121.1 | |
14 | Indianapolis Colts | IND | 13.2 | 9.8 | 45.7 | 2.7 | 22.1 | 119.5 | |
15 | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI | 12.3 | 10.2 | 45.2 | 2.8 | 22.6 | 116.6 | |
16 | Detroit Lions | DET | 13.1 | 10.2 | 45.9 | 2.5 | 22.8 | 116.3 | |
17 | Las Vegas Raiders | LV | 15.0 | 8.7 | 38.3 | 2.6 | 21.8 | 114.1 | |
18 | Chicago Bears | CHI | 13.2 | 8.8 | 38.2 | 2.6 | 21.4 | 112.2 | |
19 | Minnesota Vikings | MIN | 13.7 | 9.1 | 40.3 | 2.6 | 22.4 | 111.9 | |
20 | Seattle Seahawks | SEA | 13.8 | 8.7 | 41.0 | 2.6 | 22.6 | 111.2 | |
21 | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAC | 13.4 | 9.4 | 40.4 | 2.6 | 23.2 | 108.8 | |
22 | Atlanta Falcons | ATL | 11.6 | 8.3 | 41.0 | 2.5 | 21.8 | 108.6 | |
23 | Miami Dolphins | MIA | 11.2 | 9.4 | 47.5 | 2.3 | 23.7 | 107.7 | |
24 | Tennessee Titans | TEN | 12.2 | 8.2 | 41.2 | 2.5 | 22.4 | 107.4 | |
25 | Arizona Cardinals | ARI | 13.4 | 8.9 | 41.3 | 2.7 | 23.8 | 106.9 | |
26 | New York Giants | NYG | 12.9 | 9.4 | 41.0 | 2.6 | 23.8 | 106.0 | |
27 | Denver Broncos | DEN | 12.9 | 9.4 | 40.3 | 2.5 | 23.6 | 105.5 | |
28 | Washington Commanders | WAS | 13.2 | 7.8 | 39.8 | 2.5 | 23.9 | 101.2 | |
29 | New Orleans Saints | NO | 13.8 | 7.2 | 37.6 | 2.5 | 23.4 | 101.0 | |
30 | New England Patriots | NE | 12.4 | 8.0 | 39.1 | 2.4 | 23.5 | 100.3 | |
31 | Los Angeles Rams | LAR | 12.6 | 7.6 | 36.7 | 2.3 | 23.6 | 96.5 | |
32 | Carolina Panthers | CAR | 12.6 | 8.5 | 34.9 | 2.4 | 23.8 | 96.3 |
These are our Fantasy Football Defense projections for the 2024 NFL season. They include predictions for sacks, interceptions and fumbles recovered, defensive and special teams touchdowns scored, and points allowed.
They do not include projections for things like safeties (which are truly rare events) and other things that could result in points but are relative rarities.
For leagues that include points based on the number of points a team gives up in a game, we projected the number of fantasy points that would be expected to be scored by a team that averages that many points allowed in real life.
You may notice that we don’t have any team projected for allowing fewer than 20 points per game, or more than 24 points per game. Last year, nine teams gave up fewer than 20 points per game. six teams surrendered at least 24 points a game.
There are a couple of reasons for this. One is that defenses are pretty up-and-down, and less consistent the next year than offenses. So we should already be a little more cautious. A related second reason is that we simply don’t know which teams will catch the breaks. Some teams will get to play a slew of bad offenses and teams that are playing their backup quarterbacks. Others may catch good offenses, including some surprise breakout teams that we did not anticipate.
So when it comes to defensive numbers, conservative is better. Our defensive projections are built by looking at similar teams, and the range of outcomes that happened to those teams the following year. There is high variability around these average projected numbers. The practical implication is that you should not spend a pick on defense until late in the draft.
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