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Projections last updated: May 9, 2024 Defense Fantasy
Rank Player Team Bye Int FR Sck TD PtsA FPts
1 Baltimore Ravens BAL 14.3 10.1 50.1 2.8 20.6 133.3
2 San Francisco 49ers SF 13.9 10.9 45.7 2.9 20.5 130.7
3 Kansas City Chiefs KC 14.6 9.5 48.7 2.8 20.9 130.1
4 Pittsburgh Steelers PIT 14.5 10.3 46.1 2.9 20.8 129.9
5 New York Jets NYJ 13.3 10.5 49.0 2.8 21.1 129.0
6 Green Bay Packers GB 14.8 10.7 45.4 2.8 21.5 127.2
7 Buffalo Bills BUF 14.2 9.1 46.3 2.8 20.9 126.1
7 Houston Texans HOU 14.2 11.0 45.5 2.9 21.8 126.1
9 Los Angeles Chargers LAC 12.8 10.4 48.5 2.8 21.7 124.9
10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB 13.7 9.5 45.0 2.8 21.4 122.6
11 Dallas Cowboys DAL 14.3 9.8 45.0 2.8 22.0 122.0
12 Cincinnati Bengals CIN 13.0 9.7 45.2 2.7 21.4 121.2
13 Cleveland Browns CLE 13.1 8.9 45.3 2.7 21.1 121.1
14 Indianapolis Colts IND 13.2 9.8 45.7 2.7 22.1 119.5
15 Philadelphia Eagles PHI 12.3 10.2 45.2 2.8 22.6 116.6
16 Detroit Lions DET 13.1 10.2 45.9 2.5 22.8 116.3
17 Las Vegas Raiders LV 15.0 8.7 38.3 2.6 21.8 114.1
18 Chicago Bears CHI 13.2 8.8 38.2 2.6 21.4 112.2
19 Minnesota Vikings MIN 13.7 9.1 40.3 2.6 22.4 111.9
20 Seattle Seahawks SEA 13.8 8.7 41.0 2.6 22.6 111.2
21 Jacksonville Jaguars JAC 13.4 9.4 40.4 2.6 23.2 108.8
22 Atlanta Falcons ATL 11.6 8.3 41.0 2.5 21.8 108.6
23 Miami Dolphins MIA 11.2 9.4 47.5 2.3 23.7 107.7
24 Tennessee Titans TEN 12.2 8.2 41.2 2.5 22.4 107.4
25 Arizona Cardinals ARI 13.4 8.9 41.3 2.7 23.8 106.9
26 New York Giants NYG 12.9 9.4 41.0 2.6 23.8 106.0
27 Denver Broncos DEN 12.9 9.4 40.3 2.5 23.6 105.5
28 Washington Commanders WAS 13.2 7.8 39.8 2.5 23.9 101.2
29 New Orleans Saints NO 13.8 7.2 37.6 2.5 23.4 101.0
30 New England Patriots NE 12.4 8.0 39.1 2.4 23.5 100.3
31 Los Angeles Rams LAR 12.6 7.6 36.7 2.3 23.6 96.5
32 Carolina Panthers CAR 12.6 8.5 34.9 2.4 23.8 96.3

Fantasy Football Defense Projections 2024

These are our Fantasy Football Defense projections for the 2024 NFL season. They include predictions for sacks, interceptions and fumbles recovered, defensive and special teams touchdowns scored, and points allowed.

They do not include projections for things like safeties (which are truly rare events) and other things that could result in points but are relative rarities. 

For leagues that include points based on the number of points a team gives up in a game, we projected the number of fantasy points that would be expected to be scored by a team that averages that many points allowed in real life.

Why are the Fantasy Football Defense Projections so Bunched Up?

You may notice that we don’t have any team projected for allowing fewer than 20 points per game, or more than 24 points per game. Last year, nine teams gave up fewer than 20 points per game. six teams surrendered at least 24 points a game. 

There are a couple of reasons for this. One is that defenses are pretty up-and-down, and less consistent the next year than offenses. So we should already be a little more cautious. A related second reason is that we simply don’t know which teams will catch the breaks. Some teams will get to play a slew of bad offenses and teams that are playing their backup quarterbacks. Others may catch good offenses, including some surprise breakout teams that we did not anticipate.

So when it comes to defensive numbers, conservative is better. Our defensive projections are built by looking at similar teams, and the range of outcomes that happened to those teams the following year. There is high variability around these average projected numbers. The practical implication is that you should not spend a pick on defense until late in the draft.