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Projections last updated: May 9, 2024 Rushing Receiving Fantasy
Rank Player Team Bye Att Yds Y/A TD Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD FPts
1 Christian McCaffrey SF 212 1019 4.8 9.0 77 61 477 7.9 4.5 232.4
2 Bijan Robinson ATL 240 1132 4.7 7.3 68 51 417 8.2 3.2 218.0
3 Jonathan Taylor IND 268 1220 4.5 7.9 50 38 310 8.2 1.7 210.6
4 Breece Hall NYJ 220 1044 4.7 6.9 73 55 454 8.2 3.1 209.8
5 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 185 923 5.0 8.6 73 57 432 7.5 2.2 200.3
6 De'Von Achane MIA 161 916 5.7 8.9 55 42 356 8.5 2.7 196.8
7 Kyren Williams LAR 226 992 4.4 9.3 51 40 283 7.0 2.1 195.8
8 Saquon Barkley PHI 242 1090 4.5 7.5 54 39 285 7.4 1.5 191.5
9 Travis Etienne Jr. JAC 220 914 4.1 7.8 59 42 304 7.3 0.8 173.4
10 Derrick Henry BAL 227 962 4.2 9.5 27 20 149 7.4 0.7 172.2
11 Josh Jacobs GB 202 892 4.4 6.9 49 34 263 7.6 1.6 166.5
12 Rachaad White TB 192 794 4.1 5.3 65 45 347 7.7 1.7 156.1
13 Joe Mixon HOU 213 860 4.0 6.8 42 33 227 6.8 0.7 153.6
14 Kenneth Walker III SEA 197 869 4.4 6.9 36 27 196 7.3 0.8 152.7
15 Isiah Pacheco KC 166 730 4.4 6.8 47 36 248 6.8 1.8 149.5
16 James Cook BUF 165 766 4.6 3.6 56 42 347 8.4 2.3 146.7
17 Aaron Jones MIN 199 861 4.3 4.7 47 32 229 7.3 1.2 144.5
18 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 177 784 4.4 5.2 55 37 259 7.0 1.4 143.9
19 Alvin Kamara NO 161 654 4.1 4.6 72 52 352 6.8 1.3 135.9
20 David Montgomery DET 171 716 4.2 8.2 18 14 99 7.3 0.5 133.7
21 Zamir White LV 211 864 4.1 5.6 25 17 113 6.9 0.3 133.1
22 James Conner ARI 170 706 4.2 5.3 36 27 190 7.0 0.8 126.2
23 Raheem Mostert MIA 139 645 4.6 7.2 23 17 123 7.3 1.0 126.0
24 Nick Chubb CLE 171 754 4.4 5.6 29 20 133 6.8 0.6 125.9
25 Tony Pollard TEN 172 729 4.2 5.1 38 26 185 7.1 0.6 125.6
26 Zack Moss CIN 168 707 4.2 5.7 29 22 149 6.7 0.9 125.2
27 Devin Singletary NYG 181 736 4.1 5.1 32 23 156 6.7 0.8 124.6
28 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS 160 713 4.5 4.6 31 23 187 8.3 1.0 123.6
29 D'Andre Swift CHI 158 658 4.2 4.6 43 28 206 7.4 1.5 123.0
29 Jaylen Warren PIT 149 660 4.4 3.9 54 39 276 7.1 1.0 123.0
31 Najee Harris PIT 195 741 3.8 5.2 30 21 140 6.6 0.5 122.3
32 Jonathon Brooks CAR 153 649 4.2 4.0 48 33 239 7.4 0.9 118.2
33 Javonte Williams DEN 148 606 4.1 4.3 53 37 249 6.8 0.8 116.1
33 Trey Benson ARI 148 633 4.3 4.4 33 26 198 7.7 1.1 116.1
35 Gus Edwards LAC 162 682 4.2 4.7 24 18 134 7.6 0.7 113.9
36 Tyjae Spears TEN 107 530 4.9 3.7 59 39 308 7.9 1.3 113.8
37 Chase Brown CIN 113 489 4.3 3.5 52 40 284 7.1 2.3 112.0
38 Zach Charbonnet SEA 127 558 4.4 3.6 51 38 263 6.9 1.2 110.9
39 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 135 531 3.9 5.4 33 25 167 6.6 1.4 110.6
40 Austin Ekeler WAS 121 504 4.2 4.4 47 34 255 7.6 1.3 110.2
41 Rico Dowdle DAL 129 540 4.2 4.0 34 26 185 7.1 1.6 106.1
42 Tyler Allgeier ATL 130 535 4.1 4.1 27 20 151 7.5 1.1 99.7
43 Jaleel McLaughlin DEN 113 510 4.5 4.1 39 26 184 7.0 0.7 98.1
44 Jerome Ford CLE 118 478 4.0 2.4 42 32 227 7.2 1.5 93.9
45 Kendre Miller NO 116 480 4.2 3.0 34 24 203 8.4 1.0 92.3
46 Bucky Irving TB 131 549 4.2 3.4 27 21 139 6.7 0.5 92.2
47 Chuba Hubbard CAR 146 586 4.0 2.9 30 20 129 6.4 0.5 91.9
48 Ty Chandler MIN 110 466 4.2 4.0 33 24 176 7.2 0.5 91.2
49 Blake Corum LAR 126 533 4.2 3.2 25 19 133 7.1 0.5 88.8
50 Antonio Gibson NE 94 387 4.1 2.2 50 36 274 7.6 1.1 85.9

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Fantasy Football RB Projections 2024

If you want a more detailed look at how we project running backs for 2024, this is the page for you. In addition to rushing yards, receiving yards, and touchdowns, you can also see how many rush attempts we project, what the yards per carry expectation is, and more. 

These 2024 fantasy football RB projections are the result of a lot of things. For one, we built team projections, using sports betting information such as the preseason over/under win totals for each team, as well as the passing and rushing stats from the previous year. You can see a fuller explanation here.

From there, we also had to divide up the team stats among players, using factors like how similar players had done in the past, how the team had distributed touches in the past, and projected depth charts. 

Why Do the Fantasy Football RB projections seem low?

You may look at a running back like Derrick Henry and wonder why we have him projected for only 225 rush attempts, when he has led the NFL in rush attempts four of the last five years, including with 280 last season. 

A primary reason is injury risk, which is part of our projection. Henry did not miss a game last year, so his volume stats a year ago were based on playing 17 games. His production also dropped despite playing every game, easily posting his lowest rush total per game in the last five years. The second factor, with Henry, is age, as part of our models are built on similar players. Similar backs at age 30 saw their rush attempts drop from an average around 280 at age 29, to under 200 rush attempts at age 30.

The reality is that a typical starting running back will average between 14 and 15 games played. Some will get hurt early; a few will play in every game. Our projections are based on an average outcome. Players that stay fully healthy (and where the team plays healthy, or the defense is far better than expected) have a good chance of exceeding the projection.

2024 Fantasy Football RB Projections Highlights

  • Jonathan Taylor is our projected leader in rush attempts, as he is 25 years old, is in a higher projected volume rush offense, and there is very little depth/competition behind him after Zack Moss signed with Cincinnati. 

  • Christian McCaffrey is still our top projected running back in all formats, and has the highest projected number of receptions, at 61. 

  • Several young players occupy the top of our rankings, with Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, De'Von Achane, and Kyren Williams all in the top 8 of RB projected stats in most formats. While we project regression for some of these players, they all have the recent production and age profiles to justify their position. 

  • We have several players in new places in 2024, and that includes some big names at the running back position. Saquon Barkley going to Philadelphia is the most prominent move. Derrick Henry (Baltimore),Joe Mixon (Houston), Aaron Jones (Minnesota), Tony Pollard (Tennessee), D'Andre Swift (Chicago), Devin Singletary (NY Giants), and Zack Moss (Cincinnati) are other moves among backs near the top of our rankings.