8 Running Back Sleepers to Target

Who are some of the running backs going outside the Top 30 that we like as sleepers in 2020? Ronald Jones in Tampa Bay is near the top.

August 13, 2020 - by Jason Lisk

Ronald Jones is coming off 1,000 yards from scrimmage at age 22, and will have first crack at starting for Tampa this year (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Running backs are at the core of fantasy football championships. But sometimes, it is finding guys that come at a cheap cost and break out that provide the push to a title. Here are eight guys you should have on the radar that are currently being drafted outside the Top 30 at the position.

Ronald Jones

Ronald Jones is going outside the Top 30 in most drafts despite having over 1,000 yards from scrimmage last season. Rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn is being drafted near him in re-drafts, with opinion very much split on how the Tampa Bay backfield will go. Some third round picks can have breakout rookie years. Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, and David Johnson come to mind. But they represent a small percentage of third round running backs as rookies. The average recent third round running back has a career more like Charles Sims or Ronnie Hillman.

Rookies are the shiny new toy. Ronald Jones is actually slightly younger than Vaughn, but we’ve seen the reality with Jones. But a running back who goes for 1,000 yards from scrimmage at age 22 shouldn’t be written off. Jones is in a good situation, the Bucs should provide some fantasy value in rushing production, and if Vaughn isn’t the second coming of Alvin Kamara or David Johnson, but is closer to a typical third round pick as a rookie, then Jones will be a great value play.

J.K. Dobbins

Dobbins is in a great situation in the Baltimore offense. He may not be the man right away, but he could take over the role by the end of the season if Mark Ingram starts to break down at age 31. Even if he is in a platoon, this is an offense that will be playing with the lead and in favorable rushing situations enough to still make him a weekly flex option. Last year, Gus Edwards had over 700 rushing yards behind Ingram.

Tevin Coleman

What if I told you that you could get a running back in a platoon situation from one of the best running attacks in the NFL, outside the Top 40 at the position? Add in that the team moved Matt Breida to Miami, and Coleman is now part of a two-headed attack, instead of three. Jerick McKinnon could also be part of that mix, but he’s now missed most of two seasons with injuries. There’s also no guarantee that Coleman is the second choice behind Raheem Mostert when the season starts. Coleman was the one who got the primary carries in the first playoff game against the Vikings, before his injury opened the door for Mostert’s big NFC Championship Game performance.

In short, Coleman is being undervalued a little here. He’s younger than Mostert, and the coaching staff seems to want to go to him if healthy, even late in the season.

Duke Johnson

The Houston Texans made a big trade for David Johnson. But our player similarity scores are not optimistic on David having a big rebound season at age 29. Duke is a receiving back who can provide value in PPR leagues and is coming at a reasonable price. With DeAndre Hopkins gone, there are lots of targets that could be dispersed in this offense.

Further, it’s not out of the question that Duke could garner a bigger role if David Johnson is unproductive. Plenty of receiving backs have put up big seasons in recent years and finished in the Top 15 in PPR formats even if they didn’t lead their team in rushing, including Darren Sproles, James White, Tarik Cohen, Joique Bell, and yes, Duke Johnson in 2017 with Cleveland.

It’s easy to fall into the trap of mentally ruling out veterans like Johnson as sleeper candidates, but plenty of running back booms come from the veteran guys who have a history of solid production and then find the right opportunity.

Antonio Gibson

Gibson is another PPR sleeper going generally outside the Top 50, at least for now, though his stock is rising. He played primarily wide receiver at Memphis, but also did feature as a running back. He has good running back size, so he’s not a tiny guy that couldn’t handle an increase in rushing either. He’s on a team with a very unsettled backfield, and with a lack of receiving weapons outside of Terry McLaurin. That backfield opened up even more with Derrius Guice’s release.

Gibson has the upside to carve out a hybrid role and get a lot of targets in the passing game, while also adding some rushing value.

Chase Edmonds

Edmonds is in one of the best situations to succeed if the starter in front of him misses games to injury, playing behind Kenyan Drake in Arizona. He had surpassed David Johnson on the depth chart and blew up with a 126-yard, 3-TD game against the Giants. But he suffered a hamstring injury the next week, and the team traded for Drake. Edmonds saw very little action after that while recovering.

But the potential is there for a Top 12 season if the opportunity opens up, and any games that Drake misses, Edmonds will be an instant automatic start.

Nyheim Hines

Hines is another PPR sleeper, and he makes the list because of Philip Rivers. Rivers has been friendly to receiving backs, and he utilized Austin Ekeler a lot in recent years. Rivers has thrown 23 touchdown passes to backs in the last three seasons, and has relied on them heavily near the goal line. Marlon Mack is not much of a receiver out of the backfield, and the jury is out on rookie Jonathan Taylor in that regard. Hines had over 60 catches in his rookie year with Andrew Luck at quarterback. He could be one of the big winners of the switch to Rivers at quarterback.

Anthony McFarland

Finally, Pittsburgh’s Anthony McFarland is a deep sleeper with the upside to take over the lead role if things break right. James Conner has battled injuries each of the last two years. His future with the team is not guaranteed. In fact, history is littered with backs with similar production to Conner who got replaced or traded at about the same age (Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard, and Isaiah Crowell come to mind). So McFarland is in a good spot as far as the offense, with a coach who tends to use one back in a lead role, and an incumbent who has battled injuries in recent years and is not guaranteed to hold the role if he gets hurt again.