How We Create Fantasy Football Player Projections

The fantasy football player projections are out. Here is a summary of how we came up with these projections for the 2024 season.

August 14, 2024 - by Jason Lisk

Our 2024 Fantasy Football player projections and fantasy football rankings are live. This post details how we developed the stats that shape our player projections and rankings.

The general method was:

• We created team projections (which you can read about in more detail) using a variety of stats and by identifying similar teams from the recent past;
• We created three sets of player projections based on entirely different models;
• We divided the team stats among the players based on the combined results of those three player models.

Combining the Player Models to Create Player Fantasy Point Projections

We used three different models and combined all three for the final player projections. Those models were:

Similar Player Model

We found historical players similar to this year’s fantasy players at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. To do so, we looked at 2023 (previous year) stats. We also included personal characteristics and team stats for this year’s players and found past players with similar profiles. We then used the following year’s results for those similar players to project how this year’s players will do in 2024. You can read more about the similar player model details here.

Average Draft Position Model

We incorporated market data into our projections by looking at players’ average draft position (ADP). Based on historical draft outcomes at each position, we converted each player’s ADP into expected fantasy points. You can read more about the ADP model and converting to expected fantasy points here.

Team Usage Model

Finally, we looked at league-wide and team-specific trends on how touches, yards, and touchdowns were distributed among positions and between players at each position. For example, the RB1 (the starting running back) for the San Francisco 49ers has a volume expectation different from the RB1 for the Denver Broncos based on how the teams have utilized those roles in the recent past.

We multiplied the percentage estimates for each role by the 2024 team projections to get role-based fantasy point projections. We then assigned players to each role to get player point projections based on team usage trends.You can read more about our team usage model here.

Putting Them All Together

We combined the three fantasy points outputs, with the Similar Player Model weighing most heavily, followed by the ADP Model (to incorporate market data) and then team usage. (As we noted in our Similar Player explanation, we also incorporate market ADP data as part of the “similar player” analysis.)

For many players, the three model projections were very similar. But there are exceptions. If you see a player where our projection is either above or below the consensus, then there are three main explanations:

• the player similarity scores were either really good or poor for that player relative to others with a similar ADP;
• the team usage trends and our role assignment for that player put him, specifically, out of line with consensus (say, he’s being drafted like a WR1, but he’s really a WR2) or
• the overall team projection (and thus how big the overall points “pie” is that the player can get a piece of) doesn’t match the team’s combined ADP-based projection, meaning that somebody (often, multiple players) on the team needs to be higher or lower than the consensus to make the numbers work.

Why are Your Projections Lower Than Other Sites?

You may notice that our fantasy football player projections are lower across the board than those from other websites. Depending on which player you compare, they could also be lower than the full 2024 totals for some stars.

Christian McCaffrey, for example, had 2,023 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns last year. This year, we project McCaffrey for 1,496 yards and 13.5 touchdowns.

The primary reason is that plenty of sites project stats based on the assumption the player plays all year. Our projections, meanwhile, include the real risk of injury and missed games. The ADP and Similar Players models use actual fantasy players’ scoring, including seasons where games were missed due to injury. For example, McCaffrey’s similar player seasons include two seasons each of Brian Westbrook, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Austin Ekeler, as well as last year’s season and a Jamaal Charles year. Overall, his comparable players averaged missing just over two games the next season, and pro-rated to a 17-game schedule averaged 14.5 games.

Actual results that include injuries mean our projections are a bit lower. If we knew McCaffrey would play every game, we would project him for over 1,600 yards from scrimmage. However, we use the same method for all players, so everything remains relative. All running backs are projected for fewer than 17 games played.

So, you should look at the projection differences between players. McCaffrey is still at the top of our PPR running back rankings in 2024, even if he is projected, on average, to have fewer yards and touchdowns than in 2023.

One indication that our projections are more accurate is that when we have had a difference of at least 100 yards or at least one touchdown from the player prop lines on season yards or touchdowns offered from 2020 to 2022, a pick in the direction of our projection was correct more than 65% of the time in each of those seasons.

Going Forward

The above explains the methods used to generate the initial projections for 2024. These projections should be good at the outset of players reporting for training camp but could change with news about depth chart changes once the season approaches.

Most news in the preseason should not affect overall team projections and should not have much impact on established veterans with clear roles. However, injuries can happen, which can shift expected roles. Some depth chart battles are also less clear now. If more information emerges, we will adjust percentages for some situations.

One example is a wide receiver situation where it is unclear who the starters are. That’s the case with the Chargers, who no longer have Keenan Allen or Mike Williams as starters. The team has Joshua Palmer, second-year Quentin Johnston, drafted rookie Ladd McConkey in the second round, and signed veteran D.J. Clark. Although we base our projections on similar player projections, ages, draft value, and production, there’s still uncertainty about how the targets will be distributed. As we get closer to the season, we’ll get a sense of who is getting more reps with the first team and tweak the outlook in those cases.

However, the key to our fantasy football player projections is that our team projections match our player projections. Our player projections are in line with the expected team performance. If we project a team for 4,000 passing yards, we also project the backs, receivers, and tight ends to have 4,000 receiving yards collectively.