5 Biggest NFL Upsets by Point Spread (Since 1985)

We rank the five biggest NFL upsets by point spread since 1985, including the two biggest NFL playoff upsets (both Super Bowl shockers).

July 1, 2025 - by Spencer Limbach

We dug through the data in our BetIQ NFL Custom Trends Tool to identify the biggest NFL upsets by point spread since 1985, which is as far back as our tool goes for comprehensive spread data. These are based on closing lines and represent the most improbable victories in terms of pure point spread differential.

Biggest NFL Upsets By Point Spread (Since 1985)

In a separate article, we ranked the five biggest NFL upsets of 2024, two of which featured double-digit underdogs winning outright. Still, none of them cracked the all-time list below, where every team was an underdog of more than two touchdowns.

The wildest part about the following list? The Buffalo Bills appear in three of the five biggest NFL upsets ever. Even more shocking: the 1992 Bills were on the wrong side of two of them, as if their letdown legacy needed any more fuel.

Honorable Mention: Colts 16-13 at Bills (Week 13, 1992)

Point spread: Colts +15.5

The 1992 Bills appear twice on this list, a testament to their roller-coaster season. Buffalo entered as back-to-back AFC champions, and were ultimately heading toward their third straight Super Bowl appearance. They had destroyed Indianapolis 38-0 earlier that season, making this 15.5-point road spread seem reasonable.

The Colts were without their starting quarterback, Jeff George, and with veteran backup Jack Trudeau playing, they pulled off a 16-13 overtime upset, ranking among the biggest regular-season shockers in franchise history. Buffalo recovered to reach the Super Bowl again (losing for the third straight time), but this loss highlighted the fragility of their AFC dynasty.

5. Bills 27-6 at Vikings (Week 3, 2018)

Point spread: Bills +16.5

Josh Allen’s coming-out party. The rookie quarterback accounted for three touchdowns, including two rushing, while Kirk Cousins threw three interceptions in a complete collapse. If you recall, this season was after the Minneapolis Miracle. The Vikings acquired Cousins in the offseason as their championship missing piece.

The Vikings went on to miss the playoffs entirely. This upset, which also happens to be the only game since 1985 in which a team favored by 15 or more lost by more than a touchdown, was the first sign that their Super Bowl window had already closed.

4. Dolphins 27-24 at Patriots (Week 17, 2019)

Point spread: Dolphins +17

We didn’t know it then, but this was Tom Brady’s last regular-season game as a member of the Patriots. New England was hoping to earn a first-round bye, and the path looked straightforward as 17-point favorites over a rebuilding Miami team.

After all, the Dolphins started that season 0-7 under first-year head coach Brian Flores. However, Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick had other plans, engineering a game-winning drive that ended with a touchdown to Mike Gesicki with 24 seconds left.

The Patriots went on to lose in the Wild Card Round against the Tennessee Titans the following week, ending the Brady era in New England.

3. Jets 23-20 vs Rams (Week 15, 2020)

Point spread: Jets +17

The Jets were 0-13 and looked historically bad under head coach Adam Gase. The Rams had Jared Goff and playoff aspirations after making the Super Bowl two years earlier. New York jumped to a 20-3 lead and held on for their first win of the season.

This was a somewhat dubious win for Jets fans, who were more relieved to avoid the dreaded zero-win season than think ahead to what it meant for draft considerations. Because of this win, the Jaguars ended up with the No. 1 pick and selected QB Trevor Lawrence. The Jets took Zach Wilson at No. 2, and the quarterback carousel in New York has continued to spin ever since.

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2. Jets 24-17 at Bills (Week 14, 1992)

Point spread: Jets +17

One week after Jets DT Dennis Byrd suffered a career-ending spinal cord injury, the Jets faced Buffalo as massive underdogs. The team was emotionally devastated and missing four starters. They had also lost 10 straight to the Bills, the class of the AFC at the time.

This was also just one week after the Bills had lost to the Colts in another of the biggest upsets on this list.

With 1:53 left, Buffalo took over at their own 19, seemingly ready to close out the victory. Jim Kelly threw toward James Lofton but never saw safety Brian Washington, who intercepted the pass and returned it 23 yards for the game-winning touchdown, and what turned out to be the second-biggest upset since 1985.

This upset, along with the previous one to the Colts, were a big part of why the Bills fell into the wildcard spot after the 1992 season. This was the playoff run that began with the famous comeback from 35-3 down against Houston in the wildcard game, and ultimately ended with yet another Super Bowl loss.

1. Washington 24-17 at Dallas (Week 14, 1995)

Point spread: Washington +17.5

The Cowboys were defending Super Bowl champions with Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, and Deion Sanders. Smith was setting the NFL record with 25 rushing touchdowns. Dallas would win Super Bowl XXX that season.

However, the Cowboys couldn’t figure out Washington, a six-win team coached by their former offensive coordinator, Norv Turner, who somehow swept them that year. This 24-17 road victory remains the biggest point spread upset in NFL history since 1985.

Biggest NFL Playoff Upset in History (Since 1985)

The postseason has produced its own share of massive upsets, with the biggest occurring on the sport’s grandest stage.

Patriots 20-17 vs Rams (Super Bowl XXXVI, 2002)

Point spread: Patriots +14

Tom Brady and the Patriots upset the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams as 14-point underdogs in what remains the biggest postseason upset by point spread since 1985. Kurt Warner’s high-powered offense was expected to overwhelm New England’s defense, but Bill Belichick’s game plan neutralized Marshall Faulk and forced three turnovers.

The victory launched the Patriots dynasty and established Brady as a clutch performer. Ironically, New England would be on the wrong end of the next-biggest playoff upset when the Giants beat their undefeated team 17-14 in Super Bowl XLII. The Patriots were 12.5-point favorites in that game, making it the second-largest postseason upset since 1985.