We have opening and closing point spreads for 11339 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 5601-5559-179 and covered the spread 50.2% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
-8 11 5-6-0 45.5%
-7.5 14 2-8-4 20.0%
-7 18 8-10-0 44.4%
-6.5 24 15-9-0 62.5%
-6 44 19-25-0 43.2%
-5.5 63 30-33-0 47.6%
-5 76 39-37-0 51.3%
-4.5 105 61-43-1 58.7%
-4 144 69-71-4 49.3%
-3.5 235 120-112-3 51.7%
-3 358 171-180-7 48.7%
-2.5 498 238-254-6 48.4%
-2 570 269-294-7 47.8%
-1.5 717 340-369-8 48.0%
-1 888 416-459-13 47.5%
-0.5 1178 630-527-21 54.5%
0 1809 885-892-32 49.8%
0.5 1146 584-548-14 51.6%
1 854 432-408-14 51.4%
1.5 655 328-317-10 50.9%
2 545 263-271-11 49.3%
2.5 392 207-183-2 53.1%
3 308 143-160-5 47.2%
3.5 231 111-112-8 49.8%
4 142 78-60-4 56.5%
4.5 108 49-56-3 46.7%
5 76 33-43-0 43.4%
5.5 55 23-31-1 42.6%
6 46 22-24-0 47.8%
6.5 13 3-10-0 23.1%
7 7 3-4-0 42.9%
7.5 6 2-3-1 40.0%
8 3 3-0-0 100.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.