We have opening and closing point spreads for 10702 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 5277-5255-170 and covered the spread 50.1% of the time.

Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
-8 9 5-4-0 55.6%
-7.5 14 2-8-4 20.0%
-7 18 8-10-0 44.4%
-6.5 24 15-9-0 62.5%
-6 43 18-25-0 41.9%
-5.5 63 30-33-0 47.6%
-5 73 37-36-0 50.7%
-4.5 99 55-43-1 56.1%
-4 137 63-70-4 47.4%
-3.5 226 114-109-3 51.1%
-3 338 166-165-7 50.2%
-2.5 471 226-240-5 48.5%
-2 525 250-268-7 48.3%
-1.5 672 313-352-7 47.1%
-1 823 385-426-12 47.5%
-0.5 1107 589-500-18 54.1%
0 1723 838-853-32 49.6%
0.5 1081 553-515-13 51.8%
1 802 409-379-14 51.9%
1.5 613 303-301-9 50.2%
2 520 251-258-11 49.3%
2.5 373 200-171-2 53.9%
3 294 136-153-5 47.1%
3.5 220 105-108-7 49.3%
4 136 75-57-4 56.8%
4.5 102 46-53-3 46.5%
5 73 32-41-0 43.8%
5.5 51 21-29-1 42.0%
6 44 21-23-0 47.7%
6.5 12 3-9-0 25.0%
7 7 3-4-0 42.9%
7.5 6 2-3-1 40.0%
8 3 3-0-0 100.0%

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.