We have opening and closing point spreads for 14958 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 7370-7331-257 and covered the spread 50.1% of the time.
| Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|---|
| -8 | 12 | 6-6-0 | 50.0% |
| -7.5 | 22 | 6-12-4 | 33.3% |
| -7 | 25 | 10-15-0 | 40.0% |
| -6.5 | 35 | 23-12-0 | 65.7% |
| -6 | 58 | 26-32-0 | 44.8% |
| -5.5 | 84 | 39-45-0 | 46.4% |
| -5 | 95 | 49-46-0 | 51.6% |
| -4.5 | 136 | 75-60-1 | 55.6% |
| -4 | 197 | 97-96-4 | 50.3% |
| -3.5 | 302 | 150-145-7 | 50.8% |
| -3 | 491 | 240-243-8 | 49.7% |
| -2.5 | 649 | 323-320-6 | 50.2% |
| -2 | 738 | 348-376-14 | 48.1% |
| -1.5 | 937 | 438-484-15 | 47.5% |
| -1 | 1239 | 578-643-18 | 47.3% |
| -0.5 | 1545 | 809-707-29 | 53.4% |
| 0 | 2295 | 1122-1131-42 | 49.8% |
| 0.5 | 1508 | 763-725-20 | 51.3% |
| 1 | 1130 | 577-533-20 | 52.0% |
| 1.5 | 857 | 422-423-12 | 49.9% |
| 2 | 730 | 350-363-17 | 49.1% |
| 2.5 | 529 | 275-249-5 | 52.5% |
| 3 | 387 | 183-198-6 | 48.0% |
| 3.5 | 314 | 144-159-11 | 47.5% |
| 4 | 198 | 113-79-6 | 58.9% |
| 4.5 | 158 | 77-75-6 | 50.7% |
| 5 | 103 | 48-55-0 | 46.6% |
| 5.5 | 71 | 28-40-3 | 41.2% |
| 6 | 58 | 28-30-0 | 48.3% |
| 6.5 | 26 | 8-17-1 | 32.0% |
| 7 | 12 | 5-6-1 | 45.5% |
| 7.5 | 8 | 4-3-1 | 57.1% |
| 8 | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% |
This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.
For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)
Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.
Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.
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