We have opening and closing point spreads for 11339 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 5601-5559-179 and covered the spread 50.2% of the time.
Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
---|---|---|---|
-8 | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% |
-7.5 | 14 | 2-8-4 | 20.0% |
-7 | 18 | 8-10-0 | 44.4% |
-6.5 | 24 | 15-9-0 | 62.5% |
-6 | 44 | 19-25-0 | 43.2% |
-5.5 | 63 | 30-33-0 | 47.6% |
-5 | 76 | 39-37-0 | 51.3% |
-4.5 | 105 | 61-43-1 | 58.7% |
-4 | 144 | 69-71-4 | 49.3% |
-3.5 | 235 | 120-112-3 | 51.7% |
-3 | 358 | 171-180-7 | 48.7% |
-2.5 | 498 | 238-254-6 | 48.4% |
-2 | 570 | 269-294-7 | 47.8% |
-1.5 | 717 | 340-369-8 | 48.0% |
-1 | 888 | 416-459-13 | 47.5% |
-0.5 | 1178 | 630-527-21 | 54.5% |
0 | 1809 | 885-892-32 | 49.8% |
0.5 | 1146 | 584-548-14 | 51.6% |
1 | 854 | 432-408-14 | 51.4% |
1.5 | 655 | 328-317-10 | 50.9% |
2 | 545 | 263-271-11 | 49.3% |
2.5 | 392 | 207-183-2 | 53.1% |
3 | 308 | 143-160-5 | 47.2% |
3.5 | 231 | 111-112-8 | 49.8% |
4 | 142 | 78-60-4 | 56.5% |
4.5 | 108 | 49-56-3 | 46.7% |
5 | 76 | 33-43-0 | 43.4% |
5.5 | 55 | 23-31-1 | 42.6% |
6 | 46 | 22-24-0 | 47.8% |
6.5 | 13 | 3-10-0 | 23.1% |
7 | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% |
7.5 | 6 | 2-3-1 | 40.0% |
8 | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% |
This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.
For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)
Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.
Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.
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