Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 263 123-138-2 47.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 490 236-247-7 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 181 91-84-6 52.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 110 46-61-3 43.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 18 13-5-0 72.2%
Total 1062 509-535-18 48.8%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 363 187-170-6 52.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 671 329-327-15 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 308 157-147-4 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 220 114-104-2 52.3%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 43 18-24-1 42.9%
Total 1605 805-772-28 51.0%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1403 684-704-15 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 3180 1584-1534-62 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1422 707-694-21 50.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 853 403-436-14 48.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 212 105-104-3 50.2%
Total 7070 3483-3472-115 50.1%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 711 332-371-8 47.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1673 854-798-21 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 786 393-380-13 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 519 256-256-7 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 113 57-54-2 51.4%
Total 3802 1892-1859-51 50.4%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 663 331-321-11 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2617 1334-1247-36 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1368 647-692-29 48.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 892 440-438-14 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 211 95-114-2 45.5%
Total 5751 2847-2812-92 50.3%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 319 146-168-5 46.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 505 227-267-11 46.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 253 125-120-8 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 172 86-80-6 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 59 28-31-0 47.5%
Total 1308 612-666-30 47.9%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 783 381-387-15 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 553 248-298-7 45.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 183 88-92-3 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 156 77-77-2 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 47 23-24-0 48.9%
Total 1722 817-878-27 48.2%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.