Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 222 107-114-1 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 409 195-208-6 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 147 73-68-6 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 79 32-46-1 41.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 6 4-2-0 66.7%
Total 863 411-438-14 48.4%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 308 162-140-6 53.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 557 271-272-14 49.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 249 125-120-4 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 170 87-82-1 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 31 11-19-1 36.7%
Total 1315 656-633-26 50.9%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1252 608-629-15 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2858 1428-1371-59 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1274 626-628-20 49.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 743 344-388-11 47.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 151 75-73-3 50.7%
Total 6278 3081-3089-108 49.9%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 632 301-324-7 48.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1518 777-721-20 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 709 363-333-13 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 453 222-224-7 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 82 42-39-1 51.9%
Total 3394 1705-1641-48 51.0%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 605 310-285-10 52.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2374 1214-1126-34 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1249 589-635-25 48.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 812 397-401-14 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 168 75-91-2 45.2%
Total 5208 2585-2538-85 50.5%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 286 130-152-4 46.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 449 201-239-9 45.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 216 111-97-8 53.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 135 72-57-6 55.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 38 17-21-0 44.7%
Total 1124 531-566-27 48.4%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 651 325-312-14 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 495 222-266-7 45.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 149 71-75-3 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 127 62-63-2 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 32 16-16-0 50.0%
Total 1454 696-732-26 48.7%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.