Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 211 100-110-1 47.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 397 190-201-6 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 136 68-64-4 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 72 30-41-1 42.3%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 5 3-2-0 60.0%
Total 821 391-418-12 48.3%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 302 159-137-6 53.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 545 264-267-14 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 241 120-117-4 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 163 83-79-1 51.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 27 9-17-1 34.6%
Total 1278 635-617-26 50.7%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1221 597-609-15 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2822 1407-1356-59 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1251 616-615-20 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 712 326-375-11 46.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 147 73-71-3 50.7%
Total 6153 3019-3026-108 49.9%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 625 298-320-7 48.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1501 770-711-20 52.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 700 360-327-13 52.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 447 220-221-6 49.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 80 41-38-1 51.9%
Total 3353 1689-1617-47 51.1%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 596 306-280-10 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2350 1197-1119-34 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1231 579-627-25 48.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 803 392-397-14 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 156 70-85-1 45.2%
Total 5136 2544-2508-84 50.4%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 281 126-151-4 45.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 440 198-233-9 45.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 211 107-96-8 52.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 132 69-57-6 54.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 34 17-17-0 50.0%
Total 1098 517-554-27 48.3%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 633 315-304-14 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 485 216-262-7 45.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 144 68-73-3 48.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 123 59-62-2 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 28 14-14-0 50.0%
Total 1413 672-715-26 48.4%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.