Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 155 72-83-0 46.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 300 151-145-4 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 105 54-48-3 52.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 62 27-34-1 44.3%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 4 2-2-0 50.0%
Total 626 306-312-8 49.5%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 260 139-115-6 54.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 453 220-223-10 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 201 101-97-3 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 133 66-67-0 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 20 7-12-1 36.8%
Total 1067 533-514-20 50.9%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1075 520-542-13 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2549 1278-1218-53 51.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1116 552-552-12 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 653 300-343-10 46.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 135 65-67-3 49.2%
Total 5528 2715-2722-91 49.9%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 570 272-292-6 48.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1386 719-649-18 52.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 651 334-305-12 52.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 419 207-206-6 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 75 36-38-1 48.6%
Total 3101 1568-1490-43 51.3%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 529 265-256-8 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2095 1059-1005-31 51.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1134 531-580-23 47.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 751 360-377-14 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 145 66-78-1 45.8%
Total 4654 2281-2296-77 49.8%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 244 112-128-4 46.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 357 166-186-5 47.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 191 100-84-7 54.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 120 61-53-6 53.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 31 16-15-0 51.6%
Total 943 455-466-22 49.4%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 516 259-246-11 51.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 400 168-226-6 42.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 119 51-65-3 44.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 111 54-55-2 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 26 13-13-0 50.0%
Total 1172 545-605-22 47.4%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.