Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 222 107-114-1 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 411 196-209-6 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 148 73-69-6 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 79 32-46-1 41.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 6 4-2-0 66.7%
Total 866 412-440-14 48.4%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 309 162-141-6 53.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 559 271-274-14 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 250 126-120-4 51.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 171 87-83-1 51.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 31 11-19-1 36.7%
Total 1320 657-637-26 50.8%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1256 609-632-15 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2868 1433-1376-59 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1276 627-629-20 49.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 745 346-388-11 47.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 152 75-74-3 50.3%
Total 6297 3090-3099-108 49.9%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 634 302-325-7 48.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1524 780-724-20 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 712 364-335-13 52.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 453 222-224-7 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 82 42-39-1 51.9%
Total 3405 1710-1647-48 50.9%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 606 310-286-10 52.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2385 1220-1131-34 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1252 590-636-26 48.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 812 397-401-14 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 168 75-91-2 45.2%
Total 5223 2592-2545-86 50.5%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 288 132-152-4 46.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 450 201-240-9 45.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 216 111-97-8 53.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 135 72-57-6 55.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 39 18-21-0 46.2%
Total 1128 534-567-27 48.5%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 653 326-313-14 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 495 222-266-7 45.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 150 72-75-3 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 127 62-63-2 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 32 16-16-0 50.0%
Total 1457 698-733-26 48.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.