Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 214 102-111-1 47.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 399 191-202-6 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 140 68-67-5 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 73 30-42-1 41.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 5 3-2-0 60.0%
Total 831 394-424-13 48.2%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 304 159-139-6 53.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 554 269-271-14 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 244 121-119-4 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 164 84-79-1 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 27 9-17-1 34.6%
Total 1293 642-625-26 50.7%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1232 602-615-15 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2839 1417-1363-59 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1261 621-620-20 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 722 332-379-11 46.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 148 73-72-3 50.3%
Total 6202 3045-3049-108 50.0%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 628 301-320-7 48.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1508 774-714-20 52.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 703 360-330-13 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 450 221-223-6 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 80 41-38-1 51.9%
Total 3369 1697-1625-47 51.1%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 599 307-282-10 52.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2362 1204-1124-34 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1239 584-630-25 48.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 806 395-397-14 49.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 158 72-85-1 45.9%
Total 5164 2562-2518-84 50.4%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 284 128-152-4 45.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 444 199-236-9 45.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 213 108-97-8 52.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 133 70-57-6 55.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 34 17-17-0 50.0%
Total 1108 522-559-27 48.3%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 642 322-306-14 51.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 489 219-263-7 45.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 147 70-74-3 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 124 60-62-2 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 28 14-14-0 50.0%
Total 1430 685-719-26 48.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.