Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 259 121-136-2 47.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 482 233-242-7 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 177 90-81-6 52.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 103 43-57-3 43.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 12 7-5-0 58.3%
Total 1033 494-521-18 48.7%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 356 183-167-6 52.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 653 318-320-15 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 304 153-147-4 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 207 107-98-2 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 41 17-23-1 42.5%
Total 1561 778-755-28 50.8%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1369 667-687-15 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 3132 1563-1507-62 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1401 694-686-21 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 837 397-426-14 48.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 190 94-93-3 50.3%
Total 6929 3415-3399-115 50.1%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 680 321-351-8 47.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1638 833-784-21 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 766 381-372-13 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 504 246-251-7 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 96 47-47-2 50.0%
Total 3684 1828-1805-51 50.3%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 652 326-315-11 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2581 1314-1231-36 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1353 639-685-29 48.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 872 430-428-14 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 195 88-105-2 45.6%
Total 5653 2797-2764-92 50.3%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 318 146-167-5 46.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 497 221-265-11 45.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 246 123-115-8 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 165 83-76-6 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 52 24-28-0 46.2%
Total 1278 597-651-30 47.8%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 769 377-377-15 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 546 247-292-7 45.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 177 85-89-3 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 150 73-75-2 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 39 20-19-0 51.3%
Total 1681 802-852-27 48.5%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.