Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 134 61-73-0 45.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 274 136-134-4 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 96 49-45-2 52.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 53 24-28-1 46.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 4 2-2-0 50.0%
Total 561 272-282-7 49.1%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 249 130-113-6 53.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 424 207-209-8 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 192 95-94-3 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 121 59-62-0 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 20 7-12-1 36.8%
Total 1006 498-490-18 50.4%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1034 492-530-12 48.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2466 1230-1185-51 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1082 538-533-11 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 628 292-326-10 47.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 129 61-65-3 48.4%
Total 5339 2613-2639-87 49.8%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 558 269-283-6 48.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1353 700-636-17 52.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 639 328-299-12 52.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 411 202-204-5 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 71 33-37-1 47.1%
Total 3032 1532-1459-41 51.2%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 511 255-248-8 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2046 1034-982-30 51.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1103 520-560-23 48.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 734 349-372-13 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 141 64-76-1 45.7%
Total 4535 2222-2238-75 49.8%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 238 110-124-4 47.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 337 159-175-3 47.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 183 96-80-7 54.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 118 60-52-6 53.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 28 14-14-0 50.0%
Total 904 439-445-20 49.7%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 504 255-238-11 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 382 158-218-6 42.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 114 52-59-3 46.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 104 51-51-2 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 23 12-11-0 52.2%
Total 1127 528-577-22 47.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.