Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 122 54-68-0 44.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 259 129-126-4 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 86 45-39-2 53.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 52 24-27-1 47.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 4 2-2-0 50.0%
Total 523 254-262-7 49.2%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 233 119-109-5 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 398 193-197-8 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 179 94-82-3 53.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 117 57-60-0 48.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 19 7-11-1 38.9%
Total 946 470-459-17 50.6%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 966 458-497-11 48.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 2374 1188-1138-48 51.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1050 523-516-11 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 604 282-312-10 47.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 123 57-63-3 47.5%
Total 5117 2508-2526-83 49.8%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 546 262-278-6 48.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1317 678-622-17 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 621 320-289-12 52.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 393 193-196-4 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 70 33-36-1 47.8%
Total 2947 1486-1421-40 51.1%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 489 238-243-8 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1956 990-937-29 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1063 503-537-23 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 716 344-359-13 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 137 62-74-1 45.6%
Total 4361 2137-2150-74 49.8%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 228 104-120-4 46.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 319 149-167-3 47.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 169 86-76-7 53.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 111 58-47-6 55.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 27 14-13-0 51.9%
Total 854 411-423-20 49.3%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 473 242-220-11 52.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 348 139-204-5 40.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 103 47-53-3 47.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 95 48-46-1 51.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 23 12-11-0 52.2%
Total 1042 488-534-20 47.7%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.