NBA Odds Movement: Spread Results By Line Movement Then Opening Line

Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement	# Games	Opening Fav Record	Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5	5	2-3-0	40.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5	10	4-6-0	40.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5	3	2-1-0	66.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5	1	1-0-0	100.0%
Total	19	9-10-0	47.4%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement	# Games	Opening Fav Record	Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5	20	11-9-0	55.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5	43	16-25-2	39.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5	14	8-5-1	61.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5	8	6-2-0	75.0%
Total	85	41-41-3	50.0%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement	# Games	Opening Fav Record	Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5	221	100-118-3	45.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5	432	228-193-11	54.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5	185	86-96-3	47.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5	99	41-57-1	41.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+	26	14-12-0	53.8%
Total	963	469-476-18	49.6%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement	# Games	Opening Fav Record	Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5	117	45-70-2	39.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5	268	137-128-3	51.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5	152	82-64-6	56.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5	103	45-57-1	44.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+	11	5-6-0	45.5%
Total	651	314-325-12	49.1%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement	# Games	Opening Fav Record	Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5	95	51-43-1	54.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5	353	185-164-4	53.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5	215	100-108-7	48.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5	153	71-80-2	47.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+	36	15-21-0	41.7%
Total	852	422-416-14	50.4%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement	# Games	Opening Fav Record	Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5	52	26-25-1	51.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5	17	8-9-0	47.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5	11	3-8-0	27.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5	10	4-6-0	40.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+	3	2-1-0	66.7%
Total	93	43-49-1	46.7%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement	# Games	Opening Fav Record	Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5	45	22-20-3	52.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5	9	4-5-0	44.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5	4	1-3-0	25.0%
Total	58	27-28-3	49.1%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.