Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 214 102-111-1 47.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 304 159-139-6 53.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1232 602-615-15 49.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 628 301-320-7 48.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 599 307-282-10 52.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 284 128-152-4 45.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 642 322-306-14 51.3%
Total 3903 1921-1925-57 49.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 399 191-202-6 48.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 554 269-271-14 49.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2840 1417-1364-59 51.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1508 774-714-20 52.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2362 1204-1124-34 51.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 444 199-236-9 45.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 489 219-263-7 45.4%
Total 8596 4273-4174-149 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 140 68-67-5 50.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 244 121-119-4 50.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1261 621-620-20 50.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 704 361-330-13 52.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1239 584-630-25 48.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 213 108-97-8 52.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 147 70-74-3 48.6%
Total 3948 1933-1937-78 49.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 73 30-42-1 41.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 164 84-79-1 51.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 722 332-379-11 46.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 450 221-223-6 49.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 806 395-397-14 49.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 133 70-57-6 55.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 124 60-62-2 49.2%
Total 2472 1192-1239-41 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 5 3-2-0 60.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 27 9-17-1 34.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 148 73-72-3 50.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 80 41-38-1 51.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 158 72-85-1 45.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 34 17-17-0 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 28 14-14-0 50.0%
Total 480 229-245-6 48.3%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.