Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 246 114-130-2 46.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 333 171-156-6 52.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1318 640-663-15 49.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 648 310-330-8 48.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 639 322-306-11 51.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 313 144-164-5 46.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 717 355-347-15 50.6%
Total 4214 2056-2096-62 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 464 224-233-7 49.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 621 298-308-15 49.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 3021 1508-1452-61 50.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1582 807-754-21 51.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2500 1275-1189-36 51.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 474 214-249-11 46.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 521 234-280-7 45.5%
Total 9183 4560-4465-158 50.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 169 85-78-6 52.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 286 146-136-4 51.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1343 664-658-21 50.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 733 370-350-13 51.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1316 623-665-28 48.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 231 117-106-8 52.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 168 82-83-3 49.7%
Total 4246 2087-2076-83 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 97 41-53-3 43.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 194 99-93-2 51.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 799 380-406-13 48.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 484 237-240-7 49.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 847 416-417-14 49.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 152 80-66-6 54.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 141 69-70-2 49.6%
Total 2714 1322-1345-47 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 10 6-4-0 60.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 38 16-21-1 43.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 170 83-84-3 49.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 89 44-43-2 50.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 186 84-100-2 45.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 48 21-27-0 43.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 38 19-19-0 50.0%
Total 579 273-298-8 47.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.