Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 155 72-83-0 46.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 260 139-115-6 54.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1075 520-542-13 49.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 570 272-292-6 48.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 529 265-256-8 50.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 244 112-128-4 46.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 516 259-246-11 51.3%
Total 3349 1639-1662-48 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 300 151-145-4 51.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 453 220-223-10 49.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2549 1278-1218-53 51.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1386 719-649-18 52.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2095 1059-1005-31 51.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 357 166-186-5 47.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 400 168-226-6 42.6%
Total 7540 3761-3652-127 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 105 54-48-3 52.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 201 101-97-3 51.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1116 552-552-12 50.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 651 334-305-12 52.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1134 531-580-23 47.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 191 100-84-7 54.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 119 51-65-3 44.0%
Total 3517 1723-1731-63 49.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 62 27-34-1 44.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 133 66-67-0 49.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 653 300-343-10 46.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 419 207-206-6 50.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 751 360-377-14 48.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 120 61-53-6 53.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 111 54-55-2 49.5%
Total 2249 1075-1135-39 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 4 2-2-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 20 7-12-1 36.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 135 65-67-3 49.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 75 36-38-1 48.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 145 66-78-1 45.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 31 16-15-0 51.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 26 13-13-0 50.0%
Total 436 205-225-6 47.7%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.