Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 122 54-68-0 44.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 233 119-109-5 52.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 966 458-497-11 48.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 546 262-278-6 48.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 489 238-243-8 49.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 228 104-120-4 46.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 473 242-220-11 52.4%
Total 3057 1477-1535-45 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 259 129-126-4 50.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 398 193-197-8 49.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2374 1188-1138-48 51.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1317 678-622-17 52.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1956 990-937-29 51.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 319 149-167-3 47.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 348 139-204-5 40.5%
Total 6971 3466-3391-114 50.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 86 45-39-2 53.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 179 94-82-3 53.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1050 523-516-11 50.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 621 320-289-12 52.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1063 503-537-23 48.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 169 86-76-7 53.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 103 47-53-3 47.0%
Total 3271 1618-1592-61 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 52 24-27-1 47.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 117 57-60-0 48.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 604 282-312-10 47.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 393 193-196-4 49.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 716 344-359-13 48.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 111 58-47-6 55.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 95 48-46-1 51.1%
Total 2088 1006-1047-35 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 4 2-2-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 19 7-11-1 38.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 123 57-63-3 47.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 70 33-36-1 47.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 137 62-74-1 45.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 27 14-13-0 51.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 23 12-11-0 52.2%
Total 403 187-210-6 47.1%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.