Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 222 107-114-1 48.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 309 162-141-6 53.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1256 609-632-15 49.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 634 302-325-7 48.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 606 310-286-10 52.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 288 132-152-4 46.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 653 326-313-14 51.0%
Total 3968 1948-1963-57 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 411 196-209-6 48.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 559 271-274-14 49.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2868 1433-1376-59 51.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1524 780-724-20 51.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2385 1220-1131-34 51.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 450 201-240-9 45.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 495 222-266-7 45.5%
Total 8692 4323-4220-149 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 148 73-69-6 51.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 250 126-120-4 51.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1276 627-629-20 49.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 712 364-335-13 52.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1252 590-636-26 48.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 216 111-97-8 53.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 150 72-75-3 49.0%
Total 4004 1963-1961-80 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 79 32-46-1 41.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 171 87-83-1 51.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 745 346-388-11 47.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 453 222-224-7 49.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 812 397-401-14 49.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 135 72-57-6 55.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 127 62-63-2 49.6%
Total 2522 1218-1262-42 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 6 4-2-0 66.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 31 11-19-1 36.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 152 75-74-3 50.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 82 42-39-1 51.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 168 75-91-2 45.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 39 18-21-0 46.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 32 16-16-0 50.0%
Total 510 241-262-7 47.9%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.