Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 263 123-138-2 47.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 363 187-170-6 52.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1403 684-704-15 49.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 711 332-371-8 47.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 663 331-321-11 50.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 319 146-168-5 46.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 783 381-387-15 49.6%
Total 4505 2184-2259-62 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 490 236-247-7 48.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 671 329-327-15 50.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 3180 1584-1534-62 50.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1673 854-798-21 51.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2617 1334-1247-36 51.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 505 227-267-11 46.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 553 248-298-7 45.4%
Total 9689 4812-4718-159 50.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 181 91-84-6 52.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 308 157-147-4 51.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1422 707-694-21 50.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 786 393-380-13 50.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1368 647-692-29 48.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 253 125-120-8 51.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 183 88-92-3 48.9%
Total 4501 2208-2209-84 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 110 46-61-3 43.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 220 114-104-2 52.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 853 403-436-14 48.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 519 256-256-7 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 892 440-438-14 50.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 172 86-80-6 51.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 156 77-77-2 50.0%
Total 2922 1422-1452-48 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 18 13-5-0 72.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 43 18-24-1 42.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 212 105-104-3 50.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 113 57-54-2 51.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 211 95-114-2 45.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 59 28-31-0 47.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 47 23-24-0 48.9%
Total 703 339-356-8 48.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.