Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 259 121-136-2 47.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 356 183-167-6 52.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1367 666-686-15 49.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 678 320-350-8 47.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 651 325-315-11 50.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 318 146-167-5 46.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 766 375-376-15 49.9%
Total 4395 2136-2197-62 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 476 229-240-7 48.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 651 316-320-15 49.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 3131 1562-1507-62 50.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1635 832-782-21 51.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2579 1313-1230-36 51.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 497 221-265-11 45.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 545 246-292-7 45.7%
Total 9514 4719-4636-159 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 176 89-81-6 52.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 303 153-146-4 51.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1400 693-686-21 50.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 761 379-369-13 50.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1352 638-685-29 48.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 243 121-114-8 51.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 176 85-88-3 49.1%
Total 4411 2158-2169-84 49.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 103 43-57-3 43.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 206 106-98-2 52.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 833 396-423-14 48.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 501 245-249-7 49.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 872 430-428-14 50.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 165 83-76-6 52.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 150 73-75-2 49.3%
Total 2830 1376-1406-48 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 12 7-5-0 58.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 41 17-23-1 42.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 190 94-93-3 50.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 96 47-47-2 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 194 87-105-2 45.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 52 24-28-0 46.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 39 20-19-0 51.3%
Total 624 296-320-8 48.1%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.