Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 171 79-91-1 46.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 270 143-121-6 54.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1123 540-569-14 48.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 593 281-305-7 48.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 551 277-266-8 51.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 258 118-136-4 46.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 553 278-263-12 51.4%
Total 3519 1716-1751-52 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 329 162-163-4 49.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 490 237-242-11 49.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2650 1322-1271-57 51.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1439 744-676-19 52.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2193 1117-1045-31 51.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 387 176-204-7 46.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 442 192-243-7 44.1%
Total 7930 3950-3844-136 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 110 57-49-4 53.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 213 105-104-4 50.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1172 575-583-14 49.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 673 347-313-13 52.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1171 548-600-23 47.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 199 102-90-7 53.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 128 57-68-3 45.6%
Total 3666 1791-1807-68 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 63 27-35-1 43.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 138 70-68-0 50.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 669 307-351-11 46.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 428 210-212-6 49.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 765 370-381-14 49.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 123 63-54-6 53.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 115 56-57-2 49.6%
Total 2301 1103-1158-40 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 4 2-2-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 20 7-12-1 36.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 136 66-67-3 49.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 75 36-38-1 48.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 146 66-79-1 45.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 31 16-15-0 51.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 26 13-13-0 50.0%
Total 438 206-226-6 47.7%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.