Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 221 106-114-1 48.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 308 162-140-6 53.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1251 608-628-15 49.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 632 301-324-7 48.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 604 310-284-10 52.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 285 129-152-4 45.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 650 325-311-14 51.1%
Total 3951 1941-1953-57 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 408 195-207-6 48.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 556 271-271-14 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2857 1427-1371-59 51.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1517 776-721-20 51.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2374 1214-1126-34 51.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 449 201-239-9 45.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 495 222-266-7 45.5%
Total 8656 4306-4201-149 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 147 73-68-6 51.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 249 125-120-4 51.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1274 626-628-20 49.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 708 363-332-13 52.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1248 588-635-25 48.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 216 111-97-8 53.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 149 71-75-3 48.6%
Total 3991 1957-1955-79 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 79 32-46-1 41.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 170 87-82-1 51.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 743 344-388-11 47.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 453 222-224-7 49.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 812 397-401-14 49.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 135 72-57-6 55.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 127 62-63-2 49.6%
Total 2519 1216-1261-42 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 6 4-2-0 66.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 31 11-19-1 36.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 151 75-73-3 50.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 82 42-39-1 51.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 167 75-90-2 45.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 38 17-21-0 44.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 32 16-16-0 50.0%
Total 507 240-260-7 48.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.