Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 133 60-73-0 45.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 247 129-113-5 53.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1029 488-530-11 47.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 558 269-283-6 48.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 509 253-248-8 50.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 237 109-124-4 46.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 501 255-235-11 52.0%
Total 3214 1563-1606-45 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 273 136-133-4 50.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 424 207-209-8 49.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2459 1224-1184-51 50.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1346 695-634-17 52.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2043 1033-980-30 51.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 337 159-175-3 47.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 380 156-218-6 41.7%
Total 7262 3610-3533-119 50.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 94 48-44-2 52.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 190 95-92-3 50.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1080 537-532-11 50.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 639 328-299-12 52.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1101 520-558-23 48.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 182 96-79-7 54.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 114 52-59-3 46.8%
Total 3400 1676-1663-61 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 53 24-28-1 46.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 121 59-62-0 48.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 626 292-324-10 47.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 410 202-203-5 49.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 734 349-372-13 48.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 118 60-52-6 53.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 104 51-51-2 50.0%
Total 2166 1037-1092-37 48.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 4 2-2-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 20 7-12-1 36.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 129 61-65-3 48.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 71 33-37-1 47.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 141 64-76-1 45.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 28 14-14-0 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 23 12-11-0 52.2%
Total 416 193-217-6 47.1%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.