We have opening and closing point spreads for 18575 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 9126-9134-315 and covered the spread 50.0% of the time.
Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
---|---|---|---|
-7 | 19 | 10-9-0 | 52.6% |
-6.5 | 20 | 7-13-0 | 35.0% |
-6 | 32 | 14-17-1 | 45.2% |
-5.5 | 42 | 15-27-0 | 35.7% |
-5 | 53 | 29-23-1 | 55.8% |
-4.5 | 87 | 41-44-2 | 48.2% |
-4 | 118 | 48-67-3 | 41.7% |
-3.5 | 188 | 96-90-2 | 51.6% |
-3 | 311 | 154-154-3 | 50.0% |
-2.5 | 472 | 235-227-10 | 50.9% |
-2 | 840 | 411-413-16 | 49.9% |
-1.5 | 1337 | 657-661-19 | 49.8% |
-1 | 2045 | 951-1055-39 | 47.4% |
-0.5 | 2652 | 1347-1259-46 | 51.7% |
0 | 3256 | 1642-1568-46 | 51.2% |
0.5 | 2496 | 1229-1223-44 | 50.1% |
1 | 1549 | 770-752-27 | 50.6% |
1.5 | 857 | 419-432-6 | 49.2% |
2 | 596 | 299-279-18 | 51.7% |
2.5 | 436 | 190-237-9 | 44.5% |
3 | 323 | 170-147-6 | 53.6% |
3.5 | 245 | 108-132-5 | 45.0% |
4 | 181 | 77-100-4 | 43.5% |
4.5 | 135 | 66-65-4 | 50.4% |
5 | 106 | 58-48-0 | 54.7% |
5.5 | 66 | 35-28-3 | 55.6% |
6 | 49 | 22-27-0 | 44.9% |
6.5 | 36 | 15-21-0 | 41.7% |
7 | 28 | 11-16-1 | 40.7% |
This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.
For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)
Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.
Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.
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