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NBA Odds Movement: Spread Results By Line Movement

We have opening and closing point spreads for 2731 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 1332-1348-51 and covered the spread 49.7% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement	# Games	Opening Fav Record	Cover %
-7.5	1	0-1-0	0.0%
-4.5	2	2-0-0	100.0%
-4	4	2-2-0	50.0%
-3.5	4	3-1-0	75.0%
-3	9	3-6-0	33.3%
-2.5	30	15-15-0	50.0%
-2	58	28-27-3	50.9%
-1.5	133	66-66-1	50.0%
-1	313	146-161-6	47.6%
-0.5	523	261-251-11	51.0%
0	651	314-325-12	49.1%
0.5	501	260-236-5	52.4%
1	263	116-138-9	45.7%
1.5	88	46-42-0	52.3%
2	46	18-27-1	40.0%
2.5	47	25-22-0	53.2%
3	23	10-11-2	47.6%
3.5	17	8-8-1	50.0%
4	9	4-5-0	44.4%
4.5	5	3-2-0	60.0%
5	1	1-0-0	100.0%
6.5	1	0-1-0	0.0%
7.5	1	0-1-0	0.0%
8	1	1-0-0	100.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.