We have opening and closing point spreads for 16749 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 8219-8260-270 and covered the spread 49.9% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
-7 15 7-8-0 46.7%
-6.5 14 4-10-0 28.6%
-6 26 10-15-1 40.0%
-5.5 33 15-18-0 45.5%
-5 44 24-20-0 54.5%
-4.5 68 32-35-1 47.8%
-4 93 40-52-1 43.5%
-3.5 161 78-81-2 49.1%
-3 248 121-124-3 49.4%
-2.5 400 193-200-7 49.1%
-2 740 368-361-11 50.5%
-1.5 1197 585-597-15 49.5%
-1 1834 864-942-28 47.8%
-0.5 2444 1225-1175-44 51.0%
0 3031 1532-1458-41 51.2%
0.5 2314 1133-1138-43 49.9%
1 1437 711-700-26 50.4%
1.5 767 369-392-6 48.5%
2 523 267-241-15 52.6%
2.5 376 169-202-5 45.6%
3 282 145-132-5 52.3%
3.5 225 101-119-5 45.9%
4 146 64-78-4 45.1%
4.5 104 51-50-3 50.5%
5 85 45-40-0 52.9%
5.5 51 28-20-3 58.3%
6 42 19-23-0 45.2%
6.5 28 12-16-0 42.9%
7 21 7-13-1 35.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.