We have opening and closing point spreads for 16128 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 7918-7946-264 and covered the spread 49.9% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
-7 15 7-8-0 46.7%
-6.5 14 4-10-0 28.6%
-6 25 10-14-1 41.7%
-5.5 30 13-17-0 43.3%
-5 39 22-17-0 56.4%
-4.5 67 31-35-1 47.0%
-4 88 37-50-1 42.5%
-3.5 155 76-77-2 49.7%
-3 237 113-121-3 48.3%
-2.5 378 184-187-7 49.6%
-2 703 350-342-11 50.6%
-1.5 1147 563-569-15 49.7%
-1 1758 832-899-27 48.1%
-0.5 2372 1190-1139-43 51.1%
0 2957 1492-1425-40 51.1%
0.5 2242 1097-1103-42 49.9%
1 1388 685-677-26 50.3%
1.5 731 355-370-6 49.0%
2 497 252-230-15 52.3%
2.5 357 159-193-5 45.2%
3 271 141-126-4 52.8%
3.5 216 98-113-5 46.4%
4 135 58-73-4 44.3%
4.5 98 47-48-3 49.5%
5 78 43-35-0 55.1%
5.5 47 26-19-2 57.8%
6 39 18-21-0 46.2%
6.5 25 9-16-0 36.0%
7 19 6-12-1 33.3%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.