We have opening and closing point spreads for 22649 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 11118-11166-365 and covered the spread 49.9% of the time.
| Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | 24 | 14-10-0 | 58.3% |
| -6.5 | 25 | 10-15-0 | 40.0% |
| -6 | 47 | 20-25-2 | 44.4% |
| -5.5 | 52 | 20-32-0 | 38.5% |
| -5 | 75 | 41-33-1 | 55.4% |
| -4.5 | 126 | 57-65-4 | 46.7% |
| -4 | 188 | 80-105-3 | 43.2% |
| -3.5 | 260 | 125-129-6 | 49.2% |
| -3 | 414 | 205-206-3 | 49.9% |
| -2.5 | 642 | 324-308-10 | 51.3% |
| -2 | 1118 | 552-547-19 | 50.2% |
| -1.5 | 1627 | 805-798-24 | 50.2% |
| -1 | 2568 | 1206-1321-41 | 47.7% |
| -0.5 | 3061 | 1560-1448-53 | 51.9% |
| 0 | 3813 | 1899-1863-51 | 50.5% |
| 0.5 | 2792 | 1378-1366-48 | 50.2% |
| 1 | 1942 | 966-939-37 | 50.7% |
| 1.5 | 1018 | 503-508-7 | 49.8% |
| 2 | 791 | 389-383-19 | 50.4% |
| 2.5 | 518 | 223-284-11 | 44.0% |
| 3 | 420 | 209-204-7 | 50.6% |
| 3.5 | 314 | 149-159-6 | 48.4% |
| 4 | 257 | 107-145-5 | 42.5% |
| 4.5 | 171 | 88-79-4 | 52.7% |
| 5 | 144 | 73-71-0 | 50.7% |
| 5.5 | 87 | 46-38-3 | 54.8% |
| 6 | 66 | 30-36-0 | 45.5% |
| 6.5 | 50 | 22-28-0 | 44.0% |
| 7 | 39 | 17-21-1 | 44.7% |
This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.
For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)
Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.
Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.
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