We have opening and closing point spreads for 22134 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 10854-10915-365 and covered the spread 49.9% of the time.
| Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | 23 | 14-9-0 | 60.9% |
| -6.5 | 25 | 10-15-0 | 40.0% |
| -6 | 46 | 19-25-2 | 43.2% |
| -5.5 | 52 | 20-32-0 | 38.5% |
| -5 | 73 | 40-32-1 | 55.6% |
| -4.5 | 126 | 57-65-4 | 46.7% |
| -4 | 179 | 75-101-3 | 42.6% |
| -3.5 | 260 | 125-129-6 | 49.2% |
| -3 | 398 | 197-198-3 | 49.9% |
| -2.5 | 637 | 319-308-10 | 50.9% |
| -2 | 1078 | 529-530-19 | 50.0% |
| -1.5 | 1616 | 800-792-24 | 50.3% |
| -1 | 2441 | 1144-1256-41 | 47.7% |
| -0.5 | 3054 | 1557-1444-53 | 51.9% |
| 0 | 3690 | 1833-1806-51 | 50.4% |
| 0.5 | 2789 | 1376-1365-48 | 50.2% |
| 1 | 1848 | 917-894-37 | 50.6% |
| 1.5 | 1015 | 502-506-7 | 49.8% |
| 2 | 760 | 372-369-19 | 50.2% |
| 2.5 | 517 | 223-283-11 | 44.1% |
| 3 | 408 | 205-196-7 | 51.1% |
| 3.5 | 311 | 148-157-6 | 48.5% |
| 4 | 244 | 103-136-5 | 43.1% |
| 4.5 | 169 | 86-79-4 | 52.1% |
| 5 | 137 | 72-65-0 | 52.6% |
| 5.5 | 87 | 46-38-3 | 54.8% |
| 6 | 64 | 28-36-0 | 43.8% |
| 6.5 | 50 | 22-28-0 | 44.0% |
| 7 | 37 | 15-21-1 | 41.7% |
This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.
For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)
Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.
Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.
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