We have opening and closing point spreads for 20033 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 9855-9839-339 and covered the spread 50.0% of the time.
Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
---|---|---|---|
-7 | 20 | 11-9-0 | 55.0% |
-6.5 | 23 | 9-14-0 | 39.1% |
-6 | 42 | 17-23-2 | 42.5% |
-5.5 | 47 | 17-30-0 | 36.2% |
-5 | 61 | 30-30-1 | 50.0% |
-4.5 | 104 | 47-54-3 | 46.5% |
-4 | 150 | 62-85-3 | 42.2% |
-3.5 | 220 | 110-107-3 | 50.7% |
-3 | 349 | 172-174-3 | 49.7% |
-2.5 | 549 | 276-263-10 | 51.2% |
-2 | 921 | 452-452-17 | 50.0% |
-1.5 | 1460 | 717-721-22 | 49.9% |
-1 | 2185 | 1022-1124-39 | 47.6% |
-0.5 | 2832 | 1437-1345-50 | 51.7% |
0 | 3416 | 1717-1651-48 | 51.0% |
0.5 | 2637 | 1305-1284-48 | 50.4% |
1 | 1663 | 828-804-31 | 50.7% |
1.5 | 924 | 459-458-7 | 50.1% |
2 | 663 | 332-313-18 | 51.5% |
2.5 | 466 | 202-255-9 | 44.2% |
3 | 352 | 183-162-7 | 53.0% |
3.5 | 275 | 126-144-5 | 46.7% |
4 | 204 | 87-112-5 | 43.7% |
4.5 | 149 | 73-72-4 | 50.3% |
5 | 118 | 64-54-0 | 54.2% |
5.5 | 75 | 42-30-3 | 58.3% |
6 | 55 | 25-30-0 | 45.5% |
6.5 | 43 | 20-23-0 | 46.5% |
7 | 30 | 13-16-1 | 44.8% |
This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.
For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)
Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.
Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.
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