We have opening and closing point spreads for 19739 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 9712-9692-335 and covered the spread 50.1% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
-7 20 11-9-0 55.0%
-6.5 23 9-14-0 39.1%
-6 41 17-22-2 43.6%
-5.5 46 16-30-0 34.8%
-5 59 30-28-1 51.7%
-4.5 101 45-53-3 45.9%
-4 142 56-83-3 40.3%
-3.5 212 107-103-2 51.0%
-3 341 168-170-3 49.7%
-2.5 538 270-258-10 51.1%
-2 904 443-444-17 49.9%
-1.5 1428 704-702-22 50.1%
-1 2158 1010-1109-39 47.7%
-0.5 2796 1417-1329-50 51.6%
0 3381 1705-1629-47 51.1%
0.5 2613 1294-1273-46 50.4%
1 1638 816-791-31 50.8%
1.5 914 452-455-7 49.8%
2 649 324-307-18 51.3%
2.5 460 198-253-9 43.9%
3 348 181-160-7 53.1%
3.5 270 123-142-5 46.4%
4 199 86-108-5 44.3%
4.5 146 71-71-4 50.0%
5 116 63-53-0 54.3%
5.5 71 39-29-3 57.4%
6 53 24-29-0 45.3%
6.5 42 20-22-0 47.6%
7 30 13-16-1 44.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.