We have opening and closing point spreads for 21281 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 10462-10457-362 and covered the spread 50.0% of the time.
Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
---|---|---|---|
-7 | 22 | 13-9-0 | 59.1% |
-6.5 | 25 | 10-15-0 | 40.0% |
-6 | 45 | 18-25-2 | 41.9% |
-5.5 | 51 | 20-31-0 | 39.2% |
-5 | 68 | 35-32-1 | 52.2% |
-4.5 | 122 | 56-62-4 | 47.5% |
-4 | 166 | 68-95-3 | 41.7% |
-3.5 | 253 | 124-123-6 | 50.2% |
-3 | 382 | 188-191-3 | 49.6% |
-2.5 | 611 | 304-297-10 | 50.6% |
-2 | 1014 | 499-496-19 | 50.2% |
-1.5 | 1565 | 775-766-24 | 50.3% |
-1 | 2307 | 1080-1188-39 | 47.6% |
-0.5 | 2970 | 1511-1406-53 | 51.8% |
0 | 3550 | 1776-1723-51 | 50.8% |
0.5 | 2738 | 1355-1335-48 | 50.4% |
1 | 1767 | 876-855-36 | 50.6% |
1.5 | 987 | 490-490-7 | 50.0% |
2 | 718 | 359-340-19 | 51.4% |
2.5 | 502 | 218-273-11 | 44.4% |
3 | 376 | 193-176-7 | 52.3% |
3.5 | 301 | 142-153-6 | 48.1% |
4 | 221 | 93-123-5 | 43.1% |
4.5 | 163 | 82-77-4 | 51.6% |
5 | 128 | 68-60-0 | 53.1% |
5.5 | 87 | 46-38-3 | 54.8% |
6 | 58 | 26-32-0 | 44.8% |
6.5 | 49 | 22-27-0 | 44.9% |
7 | 35 | 15-19-1 | 44.1% |
This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.
For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)
Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.
Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.
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