We have opening and closing point spreads for 4327 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 2049-2166-112 and covered the spread 48.6% of the time.
Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
---|---|---|---|
-11.5 | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% |
-8 | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% |
-7.5 | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% |
-7 | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% |
-6.5 | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% |
-6 | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% |
-5.5 | 11 | 7-3-1 | 70.0% |
-5 | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% |
-4.5 | 15 | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
-4 | 10 | 3-7-0 | 30.0% |
-3.5 | 31 | 10-19-2 | 34.5% |
-3 | 71 | 30-41-0 | 42.3% |
-2.5 | 141 | 67-72-2 | 48.2% |
-2 | 199 | 91-99-9 | 47.9% |
-1.5 | 236 | 112-119-5 | 48.5% |
-1 | 367 | 184-174-9 | 51.4% |
-0.5 | 574 | 281-273-20 | 50.7% |
0 | 896 | 424-449-23 | 48.6% |
0.5 | 582 | 275-291-16 | 48.6% |
1 | 311 | 145-159-7 | 47.7% |
1.5 | 229 | 108-119-2 | 47.6% |
2 | 259 | 127-125-7 | 50.4% |
2.5 | 112 | 50-62-0 | 44.6% |
3 | 73 | 31-38-4 | 44.9% |
3.5 | 63 | 32-31-0 | 50.8% |
4 | 56 | 24-30-2 | 44.4% |
4.5 | 18 | 6-11-1 | 35.3% |
5 | 21 | 11-10-0 | 52.4% |
5.5 | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% |
6 | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
6.5 | 8 | 3-4-1 | 42.9% |
7 | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% |
7.5 | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% |
8 | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% |
8.5 | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% |
9.5 | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% |
11 | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% |
12.5 | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% |
This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.
For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)
Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.
Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.
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