We have opening and closing point spreads for 3750 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 1781-1876-93 and covered the spread 48.7% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
-11.5 1 1-0-0 100.0%
-7.5 3 1-2-0 33.3%
-7 2 0-2-0 0.0%
-6.5 2 1-1-0 50.0%
-6 2 1-1-0 50.0%
-5.5 6 4-2-0 66.7%
-5 5 2-2-1 50.0%
-4.5 12 4-8-0 33.3%
-4 6 2-4-0 33.3%
-3.5 22 7-13-2 35.0%
-3 58 26-32-0 44.8%
-2.5 126 60-64-2 48.4%
-2 177 80-89-8 47.3%
-1.5 206 99-104-3 48.8%
-1 314 159-150-5 51.5%
-0.5 494 241-237-16 50.4%
0 797 373-404-20 48.0%
0.5 513 245-252-16 49.3%
1 278 131-142-5 48.0%
1.5 202 89-111-2 44.5%
2 227 116-104-7 52.7%
2.5 94 44-50-0 46.8%
3 59 25-31-3 44.6%
3.5 52 26-26-0 50.0%
4 43 17-25-1 40.5%
4.5 14 6-7-1 46.2%
5 14 9-5-0 64.3%
5.5 2 2-0-0 100.0%
6 5 4-1-0 80.0%
6.5 5 1-3-1 25.0%
7 2 0-2-0 0.0%
7.5 1 1-0-0 100.0%
8 2 2-0-0 100.0%
8.5 2 2-0-0 100.0%
11 1 0-1-0 0.0%
12.5 1 0-1-0 0.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.