NFL Odds Movement: Spread Results By Line Movement

We have opening and closing point spreads for 3468 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 1649-1728-91 and covered the spread 48.8% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement	# Games	Opening Fav Record	Cover %
-11.5	1	1-0-0	100.0%
-7.5	2	2-0-0	100.0%
-7	2	0-2-0	0.0%
-6	3	1-2-0	33.3%
-5.5	5	3-2-0	60.0%
-5	5	1-4-0	20.0%
-4.5	5	2-3-0	40.0%
-4	4	2-2-0	50.0%
-3.5	24	8-15-1	34.8%
-3	48	24-23-1	51.1%
-2.5	113	55-56-2	49.5%
-2	164	71-86-7	45.2%
-1.5	200	98-98-4	50.0%
-1	290	149-138-3	51.9%
-0.5	458	220-220-18	50.0%
0	719	341-357-21	48.9%
0.5	466	222-231-13	49.0%
1	267	127-133-7	48.8%
1.5	194	88-104-2	45.8%
2	219	105-107-7	49.5%
2.5	96	44-52-0	45.8%
3	53	21-29-3	42.0%
3.5	46	24-22-0	52.2%
4	40	18-22-0	45.0%
4.5	14	5-8-1	38.5%
5	11	6-5-0	54.5%
5.5	5	5-0-0	100.0%
6	3	3-0-0	100.0%
6.5	5	1-3-1	25.0%
7	2	0-2-0	0.0%
7.5	1	1-0-0	100.0%
8	1	1-0-0	100.0%
11	1	0-1-0	0.0%
12.5	1	0-1-0	0.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.