We have opening and closing point spreads for 3758 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 1783-1882-93 and covered the spread 48.6% of the time.
Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
---|---|---|---|
-11.5 | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% |
-7.5 | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% |
-7 | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% |
-6.5 | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% |
-6 | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% |
-5.5 | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% |
-5 | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% |
-4.5 | 12 | 4-8-0 | 33.3% |
-4 | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% |
-3.5 | 22 | 7-13-2 | 35.0% |
-3 | 58 | 26-32-0 | 44.8% |
-2.5 | 126 | 60-64-2 | 48.4% |
-2 | 177 | 80-89-8 | 47.3% |
-1.5 | 206 | 99-104-3 | 48.8% |
-1 | 315 | 159-151-5 | 51.3% |
-0.5 | 496 | 241-239-16 | 50.2% |
0 | 800 | 374-406-20 | 47.9% |
0.5 | 514 | 245-253-16 | 49.2% |
1 | 279 | 132-142-5 | 48.2% |
1.5 | 202 | 89-111-2 | 44.5% |
2 | 227 | 116-104-7 | 52.7% |
2.5 | 94 | 44-50-0 | 46.8% |
3 | 59 | 25-31-3 | 44.6% |
3.5 | 52 | 26-26-0 | 50.0% |
4 | 43 | 17-25-1 | 40.5% |
4.5 | 14 | 6-7-1 | 46.2% |
5 | 14 | 9-5-0 | 64.3% |
5.5 | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% |
6 | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
6.5 | 5 | 1-3-1 | 25.0% |
7 | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% |
7.5 | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% |
8 | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% |
8.5 | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% |
11 | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% |
12.5 | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% |
This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.
For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)
Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.
Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.
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