We have opening and closing point spreads for 4612 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 2204-2290-118 and covered the spread 49.0% of the time.
Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
---|---|---|---|
-11.5 | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% |
-8 | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% |
-7.5 | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% |
-7 | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% |
-6.5 | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% |
-6 | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% |
-5.5 | 11 | 7-3-1 | 70.0% |
-5 | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% |
-4.5 | 16 | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
-4 | 12 | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
-3.5 | 34 | 13-19-2 | 40.6% |
-3 | 78 | 32-46-0 | 41.0% |
-2.5 | 151 | 73-76-2 | 49.0% |
-2 | 209 | 96-103-10 | 48.2% |
-1.5 | 258 | 122-130-6 | 48.4% |
-1 | 397 | 197-190-10 | 50.9% |
-0.5 | 618 | 307-291-20 | 51.3% |
0 | 948 | 451-474-23 | 48.8% |
0.5 | 617 | 293-307-17 | 48.8% |
1 | 326 | 154-165-7 | 48.3% |
1.5 | 242 | 116-123-3 | 48.5% |
2 | 270 | 135-128-7 | 51.3% |
2.5 | 119 | 54-65-0 | 45.4% |
3 | 77 | 33-40-4 | 45.2% |
3.5 | 72 | 38-33-1 | 53.5% |
4 | 59 | 25-32-2 | 43.9% |
4.5 | 20 | 7-12-1 | 36.8% |
5 | 22 | 12-10-0 | 54.5% |
5.5 | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% |
6 | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% |
6.5 | 9 | 3-5-1 | 37.5% |
7 | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% |
7.5 | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% |
8 | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% |
8.5 | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% |
9.5 | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% |
11 | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% |
12.5 | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% |
This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.
For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)
Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.
Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.
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