NFL Odds Movement: Spread Results By Line Movement

We have opening and closing point spreads for 3199 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 1524-1584-91 and covered the spread 49.0% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement	# Games	Opening Fav Record	Cover %
-7.5	2	2-0-0	100.0%
-7	1	0-1-0	0.0%
-6	3	1-2-0	33.3%
-5.5	5	3-2-0	60.0%
-5	5	1-4-0	20.0%
-4.5	4	1-3-0	25.0%
-4	4	2-2-0	50.0%
-3.5	22	8-13-1	38.1%
-3	42	21-20-1	51.2%
-2.5	107	52-53-2	49.5%
-2	148	63-78-7	44.7%
-1.5	183	93-86-4	52.0%
-1	269	136-130-3	51.1%
-0.5	421	200-203-18	49.6%
0	686	327-338-21	49.2%
0.5	431	209-209-13	50.0%
1	238	113-118-7	48.9%
1.5	177	81-94-2	46.3%
2	202	99-96-7	50.8%
2.5	88	40-48-0	45.5%
3	44	18-23-3	43.9%
3.5	41	21-20-0	51.2%
4	36	15-21-0	41.7%
4.5	13	4-8-1	33.3%
5	10	5-5-0	50.0%
5.5	5	5-0-0	100.0%
6	3	3-0-0	100.0%
6.5	5	1-3-1	25.0%
7	2	0-2-0	0.0%
11	1	0-1-0	0.0%
12.5	1	0-1-0	0.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.