NFL Odds Movement: Spread Results By Line Movement

We have opening and closing point spreads for 3025 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 1440-1503-82 and covered the spread 48.9% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement	# Games	Opening Fav Record	Cover %
-7.5	1	1-0-0	100.0%
-7	1	0-1-0	0.0%
-6	3	1-2-0	33.3%
-5.5	5	3-2-0	60.0%
-5	5	1-4-0	20.0%
-4.5	3	1-2-0	33.3%
-4	4	2-2-0	50.0%
-3.5	21	8-12-1	40.0%
-3	40	20-19-1	51.3%
-2.5	99	49-49-1	50.0%
-2	141	60-76-5	44.1%
-1.5	171	87-81-3	51.8%
-1	256	128-125-3	50.6%
-0.5	394	185-193-16	48.9%
0	648	311-318-19	49.4%
0.5	407	198-196-13	50.3%
1	226	107-112-7	48.9%
1.5	168	76-91-1	45.5%
2	199	99-93-7	51.6%
2.5	84	36-48-0	42.9%
3	42	18-21-3	46.2%
3.5	36	18-18-0	50.0%
4	33	15-18-0	45.5%
4.5	13	4-8-1	33.3%
5	10	5-5-0	50.0%
5.5	5	5-0-0	100.0%
6	2	2-0-0	100.0%
6.5	4	0-3-1	0.0%
7	2	0-2-0	0.0%
11	1	0-1-0	0.0%
12.5	1	0-1-0	0.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.