NFL Odds Movement: Spread Results By Line Movement

We have opening and closing point spreads for 2932 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 1398-1453-81 and covered the spread 49.0% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement	# Games	Opening Fav Record	Cover %
-7.5	1	1-0-0	100.0%
-7	1	0-1-0	0.0%
-6	3	1-2-0	33.3%
-5.5	4	2-2-0	50.0%
-5	5	1-4-0	20.0%
-4.5	3	1-2-0	33.3%
-4	4	2-2-0	50.0%
-3.5	21	8-12-1	40.0%
-3	38	19-19-0	50.0%
-2.5	98	48-49-1	49.5%
-2	140	60-75-5	44.4%
-1.5	163	83-77-3	51.9%
-1	247	123-121-3	50.4%
-0.5	385	181-188-16	49.1%
0	631	308-304-19	50.3%
0.5	396	193-190-13	50.4%
1	217	103-107-7	49.0%
1.5	158	70-87-1	44.6%
2	196	98-91-7	51.9%
2.5	80	34-46-0	42.5%
3	41	18-20-3	47.4%
3.5	33	16-17-0	48.5%
4	31	14-17-0	45.2%
4.5	13	4-8-1	33.3%
5	9	4-5-0	44.4%
5.5	4	4-0-0	100.0%
6	2	2-0-0	100.0%
6.5	4	0-3-1	0.0%
7	2	0-2-0	0.0%
11	1	0-1-0	0.0%
12.5	1	0-1-0	0.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.