We have opening and closing point spreads for 4897 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 2339-2435-123 and covered the spread 49.0% of the time.
| Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|---|
| -11.5 | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% |
| -8 | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% |
| -7.5 | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% |
| -7 | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% |
| -6.5 | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% |
| -6 | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% |
| -5.5 | 11 | 7-3-1 | 70.0% |
| -5 | 8 | 3-4-1 | 42.9% |
| -4.5 | 19 | 8-11-0 | 42.1% |
| -4 | 12 | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| -3.5 | 38 | 15-21-2 | 41.7% |
| -3 | 85 | 37-47-1 | 44.0% |
| -2.5 | 160 | 74-84-2 | 46.8% |
| -2 | 221 | 102-109-10 | 48.3% |
| -1.5 | 275 | 129-140-6 | 48.0% |
| -1 | 430 | 210-209-11 | 50.1% |
| -0.5 | 660 | 326-314-20 | 50.9% |
| 0 | 991 | 476-492-23 | 49.2% |
| 0.5 | 652 | 310-323-19 | 49.0% |
| 1 | 345 | 164-173-8 | 48.7% |
| 1.5 | 253 | 119-131-3 | 47.6% |
| 2 | 279 | 140-132-7 | 51.5% |
| 2.5 | 127 | 59-68-0 | 46.5% |
| 3 | 83 | 36-43-4 | 45.6% |
| 3.5 | 79 | 43-35-1 | 55.1% |
| 4 | 67 | 27-38-2 | 41.5% |
| 4.5 | 22 | 9-12-1 | 42.9% |
| 5 | 25 | 14-11-0 | 56.0% |
| 5.5 | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% |
| 6 | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% |
| 6.5 | 9 | 3-5-1 | 37.5% |
| 7 | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% |
| 7.5 | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% |
| 8 | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% |
| 8.5 | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% |
| 9.5 | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% |
| 11 | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% |
| 12.5 | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% |
This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.
For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)
Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.
Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.
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