We have opening and closing point spreads for 71357 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 35033-34947-1377 and covered the spread 50.1% of the time.
Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
---|---|---|---|
-6 | 35 | 21-14-0 | 60.0% |
-5.5 | 38 | 21-17-0 | 55.3% |
-5 | 86 | 47-35-4 | 57.3% |
-4.5 | 119 | 61-55-3 | 52.6% |
-4 | 227 | 117-106-4 | 52.5% |
-3.5 | 397 | 188-206-3 | 47.7% |
-3 | 845 | 411-417-17 | 49.6% |
-2.5 | 1655 | 850-787-18 | 51.9% |
-2 | 3019 | 1473-1482-64 | 49.8% |
-1.5 | 5297 | 2613-2602-82 | 50.1% |
-1 | 8226 | 3994-4047-185 | 49.7% |
-0.5 | 10449 | 5068-5197-184 | 49.4% |
0 | 14736 | 7266-7169-301 | 50.3% |
0.5 | 9481 | 4607-4676-198 | 49.6% |
1 | 6686 | 3312-3244-130 | 50.5% |
1.5 | 3979 | 1960-1947-72 | 50.2% |
2 | 2437 | 1216-1166-55 | 51.0% |
2.5 | 1487 | 742-719-26 | 50.8% |
3 | 964 | 457-489-18 | 48.3% |
3.5 | 543 | 282-256-5 | 52.4% |
4 | 312 | 165-143-4 | 53.6% |
4.5 | 166 | 84-81-1 | 50.9% |
5 | 101 | 46-53-2 | 46.5% |
5.5 | 48 | 25-23-0 | 52.1% |
6 | 24 | 7-16-1 | 30.4% |
This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.
For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)
Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.
Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.
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