We have opening and closing point spreads for 81302 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 39845-39933-1524 and covered the spread 49.9% of the time.
| Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | 43 | 25-18-0 | 58.1% |
| -5.5 | 45 | 25-19-1 | 56.8% |
| -5 | 114 | 62-48-4 | 56.4% |
| -4.5 | 154 | 76-75-3 | 50.3% |
| -4 | 285 | 147-134-4 | 52.3% |
| -3.5 | 512 | 239-270-3 | 47.0% |
| -3 | 1033 | 504-509-20 | 49.8% |
| -2.5 | 1993 | 1001-970-22 | 50.8% |
| -2 | 3577 | 1765-1744-68 | 50.3% |
| -1.5 | 6123 | 3025-3005-93 | 50.2% |
| -1 | 9488 | 4577-4704-207 | 49.3% |
| -0.5 | 11795 | 5739-5848-208 | 49.5% |
| 0 | 16425 | 8077-8026-322 | 50.2% |
| 0.5 | 10622 | 5179-5227-216 | 49.8% |
| 1 | 7606 | 3746-3714-146 | 50.2% |
| 1.5 | 4511 | 2202-2232-77 | 49.7% |
| 2 | 2799 | 1395-1340-64 | 51.0% |
| 2.5 | 1693 | 833-830-30 | 50.1% |
| 3 | 1088 | 523-544-21 | 49.0% |
| 3.5 | 638 | 330-301-7 | 52.3% |
| 4 | 363 | 181-178-4 | 50.4% |
| 4.5 | 200 | 106-93-1 | 53.3% |
| 5 | 110 | 50-58-2 | 46.3% |
| 5.5 | 56 | 29-27-0 | 51.8% |
| 6 | 29 | 9-19-1 | 32.1% |
This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.
For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)
Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.
Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.
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