We have opening and closing point spreads for 71477 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 35097-35003-1377 and covered the spread 50.1% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
-6 35 21-14-0 60.0%
-5.5 38 21-17-0 55.3%
-5 86 47-35-4 57.3%
-4.5 119 61-55-3 52.6%
-4 227 117-106-4 52.5%
-3.5 398 189-206-3 47.8%
-3 847 412-418-17 49.6%
-2.5 1660 853-789-18 51.9%
-2 3022 1475-1483-64 49.9%
-1.5 5308 2620-2606-82 50.1%
-1 8244 4003-4056-185 49.7%
-0.5 10470 5078-5208-184 49.4%
0 14750 7273-7176-301 50.3%
0.5 9499 4618-4683-198 49.7%
1 6695 3315-3250-130 50.5%
1.5 3987 1966-1949-72 50.2%
2 2437 1216-1166-55 51.0%
2.5 1490 744-720-26 50.8%
3 968 458-492-18 48.2%
3.5 544 282-257-5 52.3%
4 313 165-144-4 53.4%
4.5 166 84-81-1 50.9%
5 101 46-53-2 46.5%
5.5 49 26-23-0 53.1%
6 24 7-16-1 30.4%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.