We have opening and closing point spreads for 53097 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 26142-25866-1089 and covered the spread 50.3% of the time.

Historical Spread Movement Results

Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
-6 25 16-9-0 64.0%
-5.5 25 13-12-0 52.0%
-5 50 26-20-4 56.5%
-4.5 71 36-33-2 52.2%
-4 139 78-57-4 57.8%
-3.5 250 119-128-3 48.2%
-3 549 268-269-12 49.9%
-2.5 1125 579-533-13 52.1%
-2 2091 1000-1047-44 48.9%
-1.5 3914 1933-1910-71 50.3%
-1 6142 2996-3015-131 49.8%
-0.5 8037 3921-3979-137 49.6%
0 10685 5310-5125-250 50.9%
0.5 7452 3640-3654-158 49.9%
1 5153 2541-2504-108 50.4%
1.5 3080 1502-1504-74 50.0%
2 1796 903-855-38 51.4%
2.5 1089 564-506-19 52.7%
3 640 300-325-15 48.0%
3.5 351 185-164-2 53.0%
4 198 105-92-1 53.3%
4.5 115 53-62-0 46.1%
5 74 34-38-2 47.2%
5.5 29 15-14-0 51.7%
6 17 5-11-1 31.2%

About the Spread Movement Data

This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.

For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)

Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.