We have opening and closing point spreads for 82927 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 40624-40771-1532 and covered the spread 49.9% of the time.
| Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | 43 | 25-18-0 | 58.1% |
| -5.5 | 45 | 25-19-1 | 56.8% |
| -5 | 114 | 62-48-4 | 56.4% |
| -4.5 | 154 | 76-75-3 | 50.3% |
| -4 | 286 | 147-135-4 | 52.1% |
| -3.5 | 512 | 239-270-3 | 47.0% |
| -3 | 1043 | 506-517-20 | 49.5% |
| -2.5 | 2002 | 1008-972-22 | 50.9% |
| -2 | 3665 | 1805-1792-68 | 50.2% |
| -1.5 | 6156 | 3040-3023-93 | 50.1% |
| -1 | 9739 | 4691-4839-209 | 49.2% |
| -0.5 | 11894 | 5793-5893-208 | 49.6% |
| 0 | 16939 | 8312-8302-325 | 50.0% |
| 0.5 | 10715 | 5223-5275-217 | 49.8% |
| 1 | 7924 | 3907-3870-147 | 50.2% |
| 1.5 | 4534 | 2213-2244-77 | 49.7% |
| 2 | 2892 | 1442-1386-64 | 51.0% |
| 2.5 | 1705 | 842-833-30 | 50.3% |
| 3 | 1152 | 555-575-22 | 49.1% |
| 3.5 | 638 | 330-301-7 | 52.3% |
| 4 | 377 | 186-187-4 | 49.9% |
| 4.5 | 200 | 106-93-1 | 53.3% |
| 5 | 113 | 53-58-2 | 47.7% |
| 5.5 | 56 | 29-27-0 | 51.8% |
| 6 | 29 | 9-19-1 | 32.1% |
This table shows the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread.
For example, a "Movement" value of -3 means that the point spread moved three points in the direction of the opening favorite between opening and closing. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 9 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of -3. (Because the spread moved from -6 to -9.)
Positive "Movement" values, on the other hand, indicate the point spread moving the direction of the opening underdog. If a team opens as a 6 point favorite but closes as a 3 point favorite, the game is considered to have a total line movement of 3.
Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.
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