Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 66 33-31-2 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 230 118-110-2 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 173 98-73-2 57.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 212 102-107-3 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 295 151-137-7 52.4%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 206 99-104-3 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 205 83-118-4 41.3%
Total 1387 684-680-23 50.1%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 105 52-50-3 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 236 118-112-6 51.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 165 77-85-3 47.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 182 71-109-2 39.4%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 256 125-127-4 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 167 82-84-1 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 136 72-63-1 53.3%
Total 1247 597-630-20 48.7%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 464 215-237-12 47.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 810 394-401-15 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 406 183-216-7 45.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 476 243-229-4 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 553 291-254-8 53.4%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 345 176-164-5 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 364 181-178-5 50.4%
Total 3418 1683-1679-56 50.1%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 175 89-84-2 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 536 234-286-16 45.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 286 130-147-9 46.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 223 112-109-2 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 316 171-141-4 54.8%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 223 113-107-3 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 319 166-151-2 52.4%
Total 2078 1015-1025-38 49.8%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 206 110-94-2 53.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 993 485-495-13 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 575 287-276-12 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 420 207-206-7 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 499 258-235-6 52.3%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 254 130-122-2 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 319 160-154-5 51.0%
Total 3266 1637-1582-47 50.9%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 90 50-39-1 56.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 292 141-144-7 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 201 97-97-7 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 197 95-101-1 48.5%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 201 97-101-3 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 107 59-46-2 56.2%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 101 47-53-1 47.0%
Total 1189 586-581-22 50.2%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 298 151-140-7 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 238 119-113-6 51.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 165 80-77-8 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 231 109-116-6 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 189 88-98-3 47.3%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 102 43-56-3 43.4%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 133 61-71-1 46.2%
Total 1356 651-671-34 49.2%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.