Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 44 21-22-1 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 183 95-86-2 52.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 127 74-51-2 59.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 164 79-82-3 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 244 128-112-4 53.3%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 164 74-87-3 46.0%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 142 56-83-3 40.3%
Total 1068 527-523-18 50.2%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 76 36-38-2 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 187 91-93-3 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 133 62-69-2 47.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 150 58-90-2 39.2%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 212 103-106-3 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 140 70-69-1 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 103 50-53-0 48.5%
Total 1001 470-518-13 47.6%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 353 161-184-8 46.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 651 317-323-11 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 314 141-166-7 45.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 395 212-180-3 54.1%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 448 240-202-6 54.3%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 279 152-123-4 55.3%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 288 142-143-3 49.8%
Total 2728 1365-1321-42 50.8%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 138 73-63-2 53.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 460 202-244-14 45.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 245 110-128-7 46.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 192 100-91-1 52.4%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 283 152-128-3 54.3%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 194 97-94-3 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 287 147-138-2 51.6%
Total 1799 881-886-32 49.9%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 163 88-74-1 54.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 799 400-389-10 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 471 228-233-10 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 345 177-164-4 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 404 212-186-6 53.3%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 205 106-97-2 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 266 132-129-5 50.6%
Total 2653 1343-1272-38 51.4%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 73 38-34-1 52.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 229 112-112-5 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 152 76-72-4 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 160 77-82-1 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 164 81-81-2 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 86 49-37-0 57.0%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 73 37-36-0 50.7%
Total 937 470-454-13 50.9%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 216 107-104-5 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 192 96-92-4 51.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 124 59-61-4 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 184 86-94-4 47.8%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 147 63-82-2 43.4%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 82 35-44-3 44.3%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 113 51-61-1 45.5%
Total 1058 497-538-23 48.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.