Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 47 23-23-1 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 199 102-95-2 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 139 80-57-2 58.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 177 86-88-3 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 257 134-119-4 53.0%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 180 82-95-3 46.3%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 168 67-97-4 40.9%
Total 1167 574-574-19 50.0%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 85 43-40-2 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 205 99-102-4 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 140 64-74-2 46.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 158 62-94-2 39.7%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 231 115-112-4 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 149 75-73-1 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 114 58-55-1 51.3%
Total 1082 516-550-16 48.4%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 389 182-198-9 47.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 713 340-362-11 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 352 159-186-7 46.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 428 223-202-3 52.5%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 492 255-229-8 52.7%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 302 161-137-4 54.0%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 312 160-149-3 51.8%
Total 2988 1480-1463-45 50.3%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 151 77-72-2 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 482 210-258-14 44.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 259 119-133-7 47.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 202 105-96-1 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 300 159-137-4 53.7%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 205 101-101-3 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 299 154-143-2 51.9%
Total 1898 925-940-33 49.6%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 180 94-84-2 52.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 857 425-422-10 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 498 246-241-11 50.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 369 186-177-6 51.2%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 438 227-205-6 52.5%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 219 112-105-2 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 286 144-137-5 51.2%
Total 2847 1434-1371-42 51.1%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 75 39-35-1 52.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 248 122-121-5 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 164 81-78-5 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 170 81-88-1 47.9%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 171 84-85-2 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 89 51-37-1 58.0%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 79 38-40-1 48.7%
Total 996 496-484-16 50.6%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 229 114-110-5 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 199 99-96-4 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 128 60-64-4 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 192 88-100-4 46.8%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 160 69-88-3 43.9%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 86 37-46-3 44.6%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 118 55-62-1 47.0%
Total 1112 522-566-24 48.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.