Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 58 28-28-2 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 210 107-101-2 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 148 84-62-2 57.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 195 96-96-3 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 274 144-126-4 53.3%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 193 90-100-3 47.4%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 188 75-109-4 40.8%
Total 1266 624-622-20 50.1%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 93 46-44-3 51.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 221 108-108-5 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 149 70-77-2 47.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 169 65-102-2 38.9%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 245 120-121-4 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 157 77-79-1 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 124 64-59-1 52.0%
Total 1158 550-590-18 48.2%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 437 203-222-12 47.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 769 372-385-12 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 379 173-199-7 46.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 452 233-216-3 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 533 277-248-8 52.8%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 324 169-151-4 52.8%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 338 170-164-4 50.9%
Total 3232 1597-1585-50 50.2%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 159 79-78-2 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 510 221-273-16 44.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 270 122-140-8 46.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 214 110-102-2 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 310 167-139-4 54.6%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 215 108-104-3 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 311 158-151-2 51.1%
Total 1989 965-987-37 49.4%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 191 102-87-2 54.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 932 457-464-11 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 543 267-264-12 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 397 198-192-7 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 470 244-220-6 52.6%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 233 120-111-2 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 306 155-146-5 51.5%
Total 3072 1543-1484-45 51.0%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 82 44-37-1 54.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 269 130-133-6 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 188 91-92-5 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 185 89-95-1 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 182 90-90-2 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 97 56-39-2 58.9%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 88 41-46-1 47.1%
Total 1091 541-532-18 50.4%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 257 126-126-5 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 218 110-103-5 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 145 68-70-7 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 213 102-107-4 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 175 79-93-3 45.9%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 93 40-50-3 44.4%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 122 56-65-1 46.3%
Total 1223 581-614-28 48.6%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.