Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 59 29-28-2 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 215 111-102-2 52.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 153 86-65-2 57.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 197 98-96-3 50.5%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 280 145-130-5 52.7%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 200 96-101-3 48.7%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 203 82-117-4 41.2%
Total 1307 647-639-21 50.3%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 93 46-44-3 51.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 222 108-109-5 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 152 70-80-2 46.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 172 66-104-2 38.8%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 249 122-123-4 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 158 77-80-1 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 133 69-63-1 52.3%
Total 1179 558-603-18 48.1%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 444 205-227-12 47.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 771 373-386-12 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 383 173-203-7 46.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 455 233-219-3 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 537 280-249-8 52.9%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 335 171-159-5 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 359 180-175-4 50.7%
Total 3284 1615-1618-51 50.0%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 161 79-80-2 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 517 225-276-16 44.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 273 123-142-8 46.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 215 110-103-2 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 310 167-139-4 54.6%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 221 111-107-3 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 315 162-151-2 51.8%
Total 2012 977-998-37 49.5%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 191 102-87-2 54.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 940 460-469-11 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 549 271-266-12 50.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 404 199-198-7 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 480 250-224-6 52.7%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 241 124-115-2 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 313 158-150-5 51.3%
Total 3118 1564-1509-45 50.9%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 82 44-37-1 54.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 273 133-134-6 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 188 91-92-5 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 186 90-95-1 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 189 92-95-2 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 98 57-39-2 59.4%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 100 47-52-1 47.5%
Total 1116 554-544-18 50.5%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 261 129-126-6 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 223 112-105-6 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 147 70-70-7 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 215 102-109-4 48.3%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 179 83-93-3 47.2%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 99 42-54-3 43.8%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 129 59-69-1 46.1%
Total 1253 597-626-30 48.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.