Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 40 19-20-1 48.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 174 91-81-2 52.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 118 69-47-2 59.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 160 76-81-3 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 234 121-109-4 52.6%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 163 74-86-3 46.2%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 141 56-82-3 40.6%
Total 1030 506-506-18 50.0%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 67 34-31-2 52.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 171 81-87-3 48.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 126 58-66-2 46.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 140 55-84-1 39.6%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 205 101-101-3 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 135 68-66-1 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 100 48-52-0 48.0%
Total 944 445-487-12 47.7%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 321 146-169-6 46.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 599 289-301-9 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 295 130-159-6 45.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 378 203-172-3 54.1%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 421 221-194-6 53.3%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 269 147-118-4 55.5%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 279 138-138-3 50.0%
Total 2562 1274-1251-37 50.5%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 127 68-57-2 54.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 439 190-235-14 44.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 238 108-123-7 46.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 176 90-85-1 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 273 144-126-3 53.3%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 186 93-90-3 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 283 145-136-2 51.6%
Total 1722 838-852-32 49.6%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 150 80-70-0 53.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 748 375-363-10 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 454 220-225-9 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 326 167-155-4 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 376 200-170-6 54.1%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 198 102-94-2 52.0%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 258 127-126-5 50.2%
Total 2510 1271-1203-36 51.4%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 68 37-30-1 55.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 218 107-106-5 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 147 75-68-4 52.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 157 75-81-1 48.1%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 157 76-79-2 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 82 47-35-0 57.3%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 72 37-35-0 51.4%
Total 901 454-434-13 51.1%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 204 101-99-4 50.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 185 94-87-4 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 121 58-59-4 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 177 84-89-4 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 142 58-82-2 41.4%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 80 34-43-3 44.2%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 108 49-58-1 45.8%
Total 1017 478-517-22 48.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.