Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 66 33-31-2 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 243 124-116-3 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 183 103-78-2 56.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 226 108-115-3 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 302 156-139-7 52.9%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 215 104-108-3 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 211 86-121-4 41.5%
Total 1446 714-708-24 50.2%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 108 55-50-3 52.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 255 128-121-6 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 172 80-89-3 47.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 192 77-113-2 40.5%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 268 127-137-4 48.1%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 173 85-87-1 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 140 74-65-1 53.2%
Total 1308 626-662-20 48.6%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 514 238-261-15 47.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 871 423-431-17 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 422 189-226-7 45.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 506 260-242-4 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 589 308-273-8 53.0%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 369 188-175-6 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 388 196-187-5 51.2%
Total 3659 1802-1795-62 50.1%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 201 98-101-2 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 582 257-308-17 45.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 306 143-152-11 48.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 234 117-115-2 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 346 185-157-4 54.1%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 246 127-115-4 52.5%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 369 190-177-2 51.8%
Total 2284 1117-1125-42 49.8%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 226 126-98-2 56.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1070 523-533-14 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 610 304-292-14 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 454 228-219-7 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 530 277-246-7 53.0%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 266 136-127-3 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 337 167-165-5 50.3%
Total 3493 1761-1680-52 51.2%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 97 55-41-1 57.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 316 154-155-7 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 211 101-103-7 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 207 102-104-1 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 208 101-104-3 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 113 63-48-2 56.8%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 107 49-57-1 46.2%
Total 1259 625-612-22 50.5%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 319 161-151-7 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 250 123-121-6 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 172 85-79-8 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 247 113-127-7 47.1%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5 193 90-100-3 47.4%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5 103 44-56-3 44.0%
Opening Favorite of 28+ 139 64-73-2 46.7%
Total 1423 680-707-36 49.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.